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Light Rail and rain delays


DenPA2002

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8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What weather forecast are you looking at?

The weather channel app...says 40% chance of T-storms from 6-10pm

I'm not local so I don't have that forecast. I am bringing some Phillies fans and it's their first MLB ever so I was hoping the weather would cooperate. Leaving shorty. 

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4 minutes ago, DenPA2002 said:

The weather channel app...says 40% chance of T-storms from 6-10pm

I'm not local so I don't have that forecast. I am bringing some Phillies fans and it's their first MLB ever so I was hoping the weather would cooperate. Leaving shorty. 

I’m a firm believer that when a weather forecast says 40 percent rain, I try to look at it as 60 percent chance of sun. 

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In Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, he reports that Weather.gov is the most accurate, then the weather apps, and then the TV weather is the least accurate.  Apparently the apps and even moreso the TV news fudge the percentages because people don't like it when it rains and they didn't expect it.   If there's a 20% chance of rain, it will rain once every five times, but people don't interpret it that way, they tend to assume it won't rain and then they're annoyed at the weather prediction if it does.  So, TV will call it 40%.  And of course, if there's a chance of a big storm, the TV news will hype that for all it's worth to draw eyeballs.

So, if you really want to know the odds, weather.gov is your best bet.

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37 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

If you were on vacation for 5 days and it was going to rain 20% of the days, would you prefer it to rain on the first, second, third, fourth or fifth day?

Third day. By that point everyone is somewhat sick of each other and they can use the quiet indoor day to recharge for the rest of the way.  But you still end on a good sunny note. 

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