I sort of don't get Elias's plan

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

If Elias put his glasses on to see the future, I doubt he'd trade for Burnes knowing 3/5ths of the rotation would need TJS.

Sure, although I guess I'm mostly talking about the bullpen. 

But with the starters, you can argue it was ridiculous to rely on Bradish and Means for anything. Most of the OH certainly wasn't counting on them as 2 of the 5 SPs. One more depth starter would have been smart. 

[ChuckS]

27 minutes ago, The Goob said:

I don't disagree at all.  I just put a much stronger emphasis on the top two guys in a series instead of three.  In most five game series your third starter will only pitch once.  Win the division and Kremer may make only 4 postseason starts even as our #3 all the way through the World Series.  That's why I would be focused on bullpen arms instead of a starter.  I love the idea of a starter with years of control to help offset the loss of Burnes to FA but I just don't see anyone that attractive that will be available.  This team's path through the AL is to have Burnes and Rodriguez be aces and the lineup to continue to be the best in the league regardless of who the third or fourth starters are.  

We need both.  My goal would be two backend bullpen arms and one starter at the deadline.  

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, The Goob said:

I don't disagree at all.  I just put a much stronger emphasis on the top two guys in a series instead of three.  In most five game series your third starter will only pitch once.  Win the division and Kremer may make only 4 postseason starts even as our #3 all the way through the World Series.  That's why I would be focused on bullpen arms instead of a starter.  I love the idea of a starter with years of control to help offset the loss of Burnes to FA but I just don't see anyone that attractive that will be available.  This team's path through the AL is to have Burnes and Rodriguez be aces and the lineup to continue to be the best in the league regardless of who the third or fourth starters are.  

With this current starting pitching as is, barring an epic collapse by the Yankees, the chances of us winning the division are very low. Right now, in just about every other series (the series that Burnes and Rodriguez don't start) we are at a talent disadvantage. We have the #1 offense in all of baseball - we have scored the most runs and hit the most home runs and have scored 8, 11, and 17 in the last 3 series and we are all of 4-6 in our last 10 games.

It's hard to see us being favored against even a decent team like the Mariners (with our starting pitching as is) given the talent disadvantage in the two rotations. Now we that doesn't mean that we couldn't/wouldn't pull it out. But I doubt that we would be favorites as things are going. And then when you look at a team like the Phillies with their rotation/offense/bullpen or even the Dodgers for that matter, I believe that even if we made it that far, we would be heavy underdogs against either opponent.

I don't like our chances of continuously having to rely upon "beating the odds" round after round (I didn't even mention NY if we were to meet them). This is year 3 of Adley, 2 for Gunnar, and possibly our only with Burnes. Without making significant trades or major FA acquisitions, I don't see any near future scenarios where things are better for us, we have more talent or frankly a better opportunity. 

Pitching injuries are so significant and so frequent in MLB now, that future projections are hazy at best. Because it is likely that you have to make pitching additions/acquisitions EVERY YEAR in order to seriously compete. If we don't make upgrades/trades this year, when will we do it? And what will be promised to us more than it is now?

[survivedc]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

If Elias put his glasses on to see the future, I doubt he'd trade for Burnes knowing 3/5ths of the rotation would need TJS.

He may have prioritized a multi year solution, but if he also knew that even with those injuries the addition of Burnes would be part of a team sitting at .620 I bet he would have done it anyway.

[now]

5 hours ago, owknows said:

I think our bigger problem has been holding on to our journeymen MLB players after they've had a good year, instead of trading them at peak (rather than a true lack of AAA or even AA arms).

To be successful at this you have to have to courage to be a seller at the deadline even when you have a winning record and are a contender.

I agree this is the most questionable part of the Elias MO. Although it is hard to dispute results so far, unless you've already jumped ship following 5 losses. 

Personally (as an armchair GM) I would have sold high on Hays, Mullins, Urias, to net some young arms. Borderline Santander and Mountcastle too (though their peak might be now vs. last year). Maybe even Cano after last year! But this is not only hindsight, it also overlooks whatever value chemistry, veteranosity, seniority, continuity, risk mgt., etc. hold in the mysteries of the Sigbot.

Edited Wednesday at 16:36 by now

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Your comment basically confirms what I said. You admit that Suarez and Irwin would regress, which they have. As a result of that regression, they are no longer reliable members of a powerful rotation.
Therefore, we will slowly sink unless Mike gets someone better, and not just one, either. How is it an irrational fear to say we will slowly sink if we don’t make acquisitions? You just agreed that Suarez and Irwin aren’t adequate, so the concern is completely valid. Add to that Kremer’s spotty performance and injury concerns, and Povich remaining a huge question mark. Outside our top two, we got nobody dependable. And that’s just discussing the starters.

your comment is curious because you try to refute what I was saying but instead confirm it, and you close by admitting they “have to improve on obvious needs” 

We can debate what would constitute “going overboard,” but it’s clear from his past transactions that Mike cares a lot about the price he pays for an asset, so I think, far from overpaying, he’s more likely to duplicate what he did last season.

First of all, I never said Irvin wasn’t adequate. I’m perfectly happy with him in the rotation. 
 

Secondly, I didn’t confirm anything. We aren’t going to slowly sink. If the Os don’t make one move, they still get into the playoffs and at that point, anything can happen. What we aren’t right now, in all likelihood, is a team that appears prime to win a WS. I think we need more pitching for that but sinking?  No, that’s overboard and ridiculous.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, baltfan said:

He was expecting that at least Means would be healthy since he just came off TJ.  If they had Means, things would look different now.  If we had Bradish, which he couldn’t count on, they would be the best team in baseball.  

Means got shut down after his return last year.  He started ST late.

Why would anyone expect him to make it through the season healthy?

[SemperFi]

Elias's peers think he is among the best in baseball.  

It's now apparent that JA was in sale mode for some time so it's tough to evauate ME without him having a budget to work with.  He added Burnes-which was likely baked into the budget.  

I don't know what Rubenstien will do but he most likely (IMO) will give ME at least a credible MLB budget in-line with revenue which will allow him to gradually increase payroll-gradually as he has to account for arb raises.

If ME had had an additional short term committment of $30m (and used it) I believe would be a different pitching staff.  

It's not possible to discern ME's plans as they will continue to evolve with Rubenstien in control.

[ledzepp8]

Once again, the O’s have done so well over the past few seasons, people forget what it’s like to have a losing streak. The Dodgers lost five in a row earlier this season. It’s doubtful that their fans think the sky is falling. 
 

Nobody likes to lose games but the bright side is, it seems to be at the right time because the Yankees are struggling too. 

[ledzepp8]

5 hours ago, gtman55 said:

I never said it's becoming unglued. Reading is fundamental.

I said if we don't make moves I could see things unraveling.

“And now in late June, it's coming unglued.”

Literally right there in your post. 

[ScGO's]

Elias has a plan and he's sticking to it. However, the UCL explosions in our arms are definitely his first unforeseen, unplanned bump in the road. A lot of teams are going through this right now.

In my opinion, reading the tea leaves, I felt he was trying "catch up" in the early years of the rebuild by going hard after top position talent in the draft. At the same time, he was using trades to catch up on pitching. He wasn't doing a bad job addressing pitching, but in order to "catch up," drafting top positional talent was smart. Someone said it earlier in this thread, its easier to hit on position players and they're less volatile

The O's brass were not disregarding their pitching plan, but they were trying also keep pace by introducing better player development, analytics, and tech. They were drafting "sleeper arms" in the later rounds of the draft while also quietly acquiring a lot of depth and talent in the international market.

Last years draft was the 1st one that I felt Elias had a focus on drafting better pitching talent. He's a guy that I believe will use his high picks on "best player" available typically, but moving forward, the positional depth allows them to slot more pitchers at the top of their draft list.

In a perfect world, Elias has none of these injuries to deal with and we appear as a Mega pitching program bc we have plenty of starter depth at the MLB level. Last years draft, along with a bunch of DSL arms that have started to creep into A-/A+ give us some good lower level depth. Again, w/o the injuries, we can hide the fact that we are VERY thin at the AA/AAA levels. In 2026, the international depth and the recent drafts depth would have probably met in a perfect storm of talent on the MLB roster, and he'd really look like a genius.

But losing Bautista, Bradish, Means, Wells to UCL/TJs, and also having Columbe and Kremer miss time with injuries exposes that gap in our system's pitching depth that Elias was hoping to hide for another season or two.

 

Edited Wednesday at 16:54 by ScGO's

[ledzepp8]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

As long as that plan includes pitching addition(s) at the deadline than sure. But we are by no means winning a World Series with this pitching staff as is. How many good pitchers do we have that you or any reasonable person would trust to get big outs in a postseason game? And then be able to do that against the best hitters in the game round after round?

This is such hyperbole. The Rangers starter ERA was 3.96 and bullpen ERA was 4.77 last season. 

[ledzepp8]

58 minutes ago, interloper said:

Sure, although I guess I'm mostly talking about the bullpen. 

But with the starters, you can argue it was ridiculous to rely on Bradish and Means for anything. Most of the OH certainly wasn't counting on them as 2 of the 5 SPs. One more depth starter would have been smart. 

Who wouldn’t have been counting on Bradish? Is this just revisionist history? He wasn’t injured until the middle of February. They thought they were going to be able to avoid surgery. At that point, that close to the season, who should Elias have signed to replace him?

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

This is such hyperbole. The Rangers starter ERA was 3.96 and bullpen ERA was 4.77 last season. 

Why do so many posters point to the 23' Texas Rangers as though they are some kind of rule and not an exception? We all know they weren't the best team and got lucky/hot at the right time.

Is that the kind of model that we should be looking to build on/copycat?repeat?

[ledzepp8]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Why do so many posters point to the 23' Texas Rangers as though they are some kind of rule and not an exception? We all know they weren't the best team and got lucky/hot at the right time.

Is that the kind of model that we should be looking to build on/copycat?repeat?

Because that’s the point. That’s more or less what the playoffs are about, getting hot at the right time. 
 

Do you think the 23 Rangers are the only World Series winner that didn’t have what you would call championship winning pitching?