Heston Kjerstad 2024

[capyy]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Is catch probability based on EV and launch angle solely like xBA, or does it take into account the defenders location?
 

Not making excuses or saying it shouldn’t have been caught but that was a challenging play.  The ball was hit directly over his head, he didn’t take a deep enough drop step, looked at wall, and when he looked back up at ball above him, he lost his balance. If the ball was hit 10’ to his left or right it’s a simple play.  With that said, he needs to make that play. 

it does not and you are right. he's getting judged too harshly

[Malike]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

Is catch probability based on EV and launch angle solely like xBA, or does it take into account the defenders location?
 

Not making excuses or saying it shouldn’t have been caught but that was a challenging play.  The ball was hit directly over his head, he didn’t take a deep enough drop step, looked at wall, and when he looked back up at ball above him, he lost his balance. If the ball was hit 10’ to his left or right it’s a simple play.  With that said, he needs to make that play. 

Its distance needed and opportunity time. Palmer even tweeted that a LF catches that ball in his back pocket. It was not a hard play, he made it look hard because he stutter steps and spins around in a circle. There was nothing fluid about his route to the ball. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Well as I said I think he can be a really good hitter.  He is already on his way there.  But for as bad as his D is.....I don't think he would hit enough to make up for such an extreme deficiency.    He is still young so of course he could prove me wrong as far as being an elite hitter, but just going by eye test I just see very good as his ceiling.  We have enough guys like that.  We need pitching. 

So you think he falls somewhere between really (very) good and elite but you won't say why?

I'm not defending him I'm just curious how you managed to come to this very narrow window of his ability based off of so little data.

 

Does anyone have the misplay in the outfield?  I'd like to take another look.

[Gurgi]

There are two types of fielders.  Guys that make plays and guys who run after the ball and throw it back in.  Kjerstad looks like he is the throw it back in group.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Well as I said I think he can be a really good hitter.  He is already on his way there.  But for as bad as his D is.....I don't think he would hit enough to make up for such an extreme deficiency.    He is still young so of course he could prove me wrong as far as being an elite hitter, but just going by eye test I just see very good as his ceiling.  We have enough guys like that.  We need pitching. 

Players like O'Hearn, Mountcastle and Santander aren't going to be around forever. If I'm Elias there's no way I trade Kjerstad when they can make room for his bat at 1B/DH just in case his outfield defense isn't good enough. Kjerstad might end up being the second best hitter on the team behind Gunnar.

If a player can hit that good you find a way to hide their defensive limitations.

Edited July 27 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[OnlyOneOriole]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

Its distance needed and opportunity time. Palmer even tweeted that a LF catches that ball in his back pocket. It was not a hard play, he made it look hard because he stutter steps and spins around in a circle. There was nothing fluid about his route to the ball. 

Yup.  As I said it looked like he had never played the OF in his life instead of the 1000s of innings he has played there from childhood to pro.

There is just no way a professional should look that bad on what was a pretty routine catch. 

It honestly makes me wonder if he is over his concussion issues.  It was that bad.

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Players like O'Hearn, Mountcastle and Santander aren't going to be around forever. If I'm Elias there's no way I trade Kjerstad when they can make room for his bat at 1B/DH just in case his outfield defense isn't good enough. Kjerstad might end up being the second best hitter on the team behind Gunnar.

If a player can hit that good you find a way to hide their defensive limitations.

In another month Gunnar might be the second best hitter on the team behind Santander. Witt Jr. is now the WAR king in MLB because Gunnar has gone ice cold for a month.

[OnlyOneOriole]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you think he falls somewhere between really (very) good and elite but you won't say why?

I'm not defending him I'm just curious how you managed to come to this very narrow window of his ability based off of so little data.

 

Does anyone have the misplay in the outfield?  I'd like to take another look.

I mean.....what do you want to me to do?  Give you stats and figures and Billy Beane nerd stuff?

Every GM and scout in baseball has all of that.  As I said I think he will be a good, maybe very good hitter.  Just not elite.  And by elite I mean a GH or a Judge or an Eddie Murray going old school.

And since I think that, and since I KNOW we need pitching, and since I KNOW that we have other guys that can play LF for us next year?  Especially if we resign AS to stay in RF?  I think he is an absolute perfect candidate to trade for what we have literally none of....especially next year. 

Pitching. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 minutes ago, Malike said:

In another month Gunnar might be the second best hitter on the team behind Santander. Witt Jr. is now the WAR king in MLB because Gunnar has gone ice cold for a month.

The Gunnar thing is very perplexing to me.  It started off hitting and has now gone to fielding.

Is he depressed from the rumors of player dissension in the clubhouse from guys like Hays?  Did he and his gf break up? 

Or is it just a slump? 

Hard to say but he is way too good to be making these kinds of errors (completely preventable) and being such an easy out as of late. 

[terpoh]

19 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Players like O'Hearn, Mountcastle and Santander aren't going to be around forever. If I'm Elias there's no way I trade Kjerstad when they can make room for his bat at 1B/DH just in case his outfield defense isn't good enough. Kjerstad might end up being the second best hitter on the team behind Gunnar.

If a player can hit that good you find a way to hide their defensive limitations.

Then get Mayo up with the big club.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I mean.....what do you want to me to do?  Give you stats and figures and Billy Beane nerd stuff?

Every GM and scout in baseball has all of that.  As I said I think he will be a good, maybe very good hitter.  Just not elite.  And by elite I mean a GH or a Judge or an Eddie Murray going old school.

And since I think that, and since I KNOW we need pitching, and since I KNOW that we have other guys that can play LF for us next year?  Especially if we resign AS to stay in RF?  I think he is an absolute perfect candidate to trade for what we have literally none of....especially next year. 

Pitching. 

I'm just curious what you see that so quickly allows you to determine his future with the bat.  Is it footwork?  Swing mechanics?  Plate coverage?

Is it just a gut feeling you have and you didn't articulate it well?

Do you think Santander is a superior hitter?

For the record I have zero issue with trading him for pitching.

[emmett16]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you think he falls somewhere between really (very) good and elite but you won't say why?

I'm not defending him I'm just curious how you managed to come to this very narrow window of his ability based off of so little data.

 

Does anyone have the misplay in the outfield?  I'd like to take another look.

https://www.mlb.com/video/xander-bogaerts-doubles-7-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-fielder-heston-kjerstad-m?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, emmett16 said:

https://www.mlb.com/video/xander-bogaerts-doubles-7-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-fielder-heston-kjerstad-m?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

Nice Jones homage there by Machado.

[OnlyOneOriole]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just curious what you see that so quickly allows you to determine his future with the bat.  Is it footwork?  Swing mechanics?  Plate coverage?

Is it just a gut feeling you have and you didn't articulate it well?

Do you think Santander is a superior hitter?

For the record I have zero issue with trading him for pitching.

Then we agree.  And yes I think Santander is a much superior hitter.  Will Heston be as good as AS in a few years?  Very possible.

But then again AS is imo a very underrated fielder.  He isn't the fastest or most athletic but he is very steady.

[jabba72]

Imagine playing Mayo in RF and Kjerstad in LF at the same time in Camden Yards? Woof!