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Outfield PA the rest of the way

Frobby

By Frobby
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LA2 Hangout Grand Counsel

LA2

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Malike said:

The problem is his numbers keep going down. He's going to be below 2 fWAR soon, his wRC+ has plummeted and it's actually lower than Hays'. If you bring him in as a defensive replacement in a close game, expect nothing from him with the bat. His OPS+ late and close is 24, his OPS+ in high leverage, which is about a fifth of all of his PA's is 3, yes, 3. There is not a single player on the team I wouldn't bat instead of Cowser if we needed to push a run across the plate. He's the worst player in all of MLB in clutch situations and bottom 4 in WPA.

Kjerstad shd be his late-inning offensive replacement.

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LGOrioles
LGOrioles

Hays has certainly hit a lot better lately but he is just feasting on LHP’s. His wRC+ against RHP’s is 73, so he should not be taking any AB’s away against RHP’s from Cowser (or Mullins/Kjerstad/Santa

Frobby
Frobby

So far this year, the Orioles’ OF PA (1,078) have been allocated as follows: Santander (302) 28.0% Mullins (272) 25.2% Cowser (268) 24.9% Hays (136) 12.6% O’Hearn (45) 4.2%

Malike
Malike

The problem is his numbers keep going down. He's going to be below 2 fWAR soon, his wRC+ has plummeted and it's actually lower than Hays'. If you bring him in as a defensive replacement in a close gam

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And to be clear, you don’t think Irvin’s page being blue is predictive of him, right?  Like, that means nothing for the future?  If so, why did you keep showing it?

I feel like you're smarter than you are acting right now. None of the blue on Irvins page that I talk about are expected even though his xstats are terrible, they are descriptive. Do you not understand that or are you just being obtuse? Nothing about Irvins statcast page suggests he's been serviceable. He's bottom of the barrel in every important category K, HH, Avg EV, Whiff, Barrel, Chase, Pitch values. How could anyone take a look at his page and think he's unlucky?

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Malike said:

Okay, I say use him properly, ie in a platoon and you laugh like that's a silly notion when it's a likely outcome, but then acknowledge it's a possibility. Strange.

He shouldn't play every day if he's OPS'ing .600 on a team that is trying to win a World Series, you play the guys who are hitting.

It’s a possibility a few years from now. 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Malike said:

I feel like you're smarter than you are acting right now. None of the blue on Irvins page that I talk are expected even though his xstats are terrible, they are descriptive. Do you not understand that or are you just being obtuse? Nothing about Irvins statcast page suggests he's been serviceable. He's bottom of the barrel in every important category K, HH, Avg EV, Whiff, Barrel, Chase, Pitch values. How could anyone take a look at his page and think he's unlucky?

How can anyone look at Cowsers page and say he’s not unlucky?  
 

everything you just wrote you are poo pooing w/r/t Cowser yet because it fits your argument about Irvin, you think it’s valid.  

The lack of consistency is astonishing.

You can’t use statcast stuff as a reason you don’t think a guy is good or will be good but then laugh it off that someone is using it as a reason why they think improvement happens. 

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

It’s a possibility a few years from now. 

It should be a possibility as soon as this season. If this team thinks they have a real chance to win the World Series, they aren't going to roll him out there against LHP.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Malike said:

It should be a possibility as soon as this season. If this team thinks they have a real chance to win the World Series, they aren't going to roll him out there against LHP.

You would bench him more than just lefties.

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

How can anyone look at Cowsers page and say he’s not unlucky?  
 

everything you just wrote you are poo pooing w/r/t Cowser yet because it fits your argument about Irvin, you think it’s valid.  

The lack of consistency is astonishing.

If a players xWOBA is higher than the wOBA a player is considered unlucky. Cowsers xWOBA is 31 points higher than his wOBA, how unlucky has he been?

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You would bench him more than just lefties.

I said I'd platoon him. That means I'd not play him much against same-side pitchers in case there is any confusion on what a platoon bat is.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Posted
Just now, Malike said:

I said I'd platoon him. That means I'd not play him much against same-side pitchers in case there is any confusion on what a platoon bat is.

I don’t believe you. I think you would bench him vs righties too..at least some.

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Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

31 points worth.

Right, so he's not even among the unluckiest players in the sport. Does 31 points make him an .800 OPS guy instead of the .600 guy he's been for 2+ months?

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sports Guy said:

How can anyone look at Cowsers page and say he’s not unlucky?  
 

everything you just wrote you are poo pooing w/r/t Cowser yet because it fits your argument about Irvin, you think it’s valid.  

The lack of consistency is astonishing.

It is alot of red when it’s not blue. Aka he makes contact. Thanks for pointing that out. He’s probably due for some positive regression. 

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LGOrioles Major Leaguer

LGOrioles

Posted
Posted

The Cowser talk is interesting. He’s extremely controversial on here for a rookie who is quite literally one of the best defensive OF’ers in the MLB (98th percentile), hits for well above average power, and has been a very valuable base runner too (95th percentile). Maybe it’s because nobody expected his defense to be that great, but he’s not Kjerstad, he arguably doesn’t even need to be a league average hitter to still be a 2-3 WAR guy with his defense/base running.

He can certainly be frustrating to watch sometimes and needs to improve in higher leverage situations, but when I think of the best version of this Orioles team, it certainly involves Cowser in the OF. He’s a better player with a higher ceiling and floor than either Hays or Mullins and needs to play to see if he can work through some of his issues. Cowser is not Gunnar, but through 280 PA’s last year (Cowser is at 278 right now), Gunnar was striking out 32% of the time and hitting for slightly less power than Cowser is right now. The rest of the season he struck out 20.5% of the time and hit 17 HR’s. Again, Cowser isn’t Gunnar, but there’s little reason to cut his playing time when his ceiling is being the best OF’er on the team, and his floor is likely not any worse than what they’ve gotten from Mullins the past 2 seasons. He doesn’t need to play every single game but he should certainly be playing more than Mullins and Hays.

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Hays is currently out OPS'ing Cowser .744 to .740.  Cowser has been really cold for a really long time.   Just pointing that out, it doesn't mean I don't like the player.  

League average OPS is .707. Cowser is fine.

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