Jump to content

Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

psagawa

By psagawa
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

Posted
Posted
Quote

The Orioles will have a very good chance of signing Burnes mostly due to the plethora of pitching talent (a potential seven former Cy Young Award winners) that will be available this offseason. Burnes will be one of the more attractive options for teams, but the competition and market should allow the Orioles to compete financially. A four-year $120 million deal should be enough to lure him back to the team that will be a contender for the foreseeable future.

WBALs Blair Young likes our chances

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/do-orioles-have-chance-sign-free-agent-pitcher-corbin-burnes/62512129

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 149
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

OriolesUpAndDowns
OriolesUpAndDowns

I personally don’t think he gets anywhere close to that.  

Frobby
Frobby

I’m on record: 7/$252 mm, $36 mm AAV.  Cole got that AAV for 9 years, when he was two years younger than Burnes will be as a FA.  So subtract the two extra years.  

RVAOsFan
RVAOsFan

If we win a World Series this year there will be some increased pressure to bring Burnes back. If Burns’s gets a mega deal 300+M then I certainly understand letting him walk but if it’s say 6 or less

Posted Images

SouthRider Major Leaguer Rising Star

SouthRider

Posted
Posted

I think it all depends on whether Arizona can make an offer.  If it's competitive I think he goes there.  Otherwise, it depends on how much the O's are willing to spend vs the other teams.  He might take less to stay here, but I heard his home is in Arizona. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, SouthRider said:

I think it all depends on whether Arizona can make an offer.  If it's competitive I think he goes there.  Otherwise, it depends on how much the O's are willing to spend vs the other teams.  He might take less to stay here, but I heard his home is in Arizona. 

The Diamondbacks have 125 million in 10 players. Would they really want to have at $155-$165 million in 11 players of a $199 million payroll (their 2023 amount)?
 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/payroll/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total2

Edited by Roll Tide
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bpilktree67 Major Leaguer Rising Star

bpilktree67

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

The Diamondbacks have 125 million in 10 players. Would they really want to have at $155-$165 million in 11 players of a $199 million payroll (their 2023 amount)?
 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/payroll/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total2

They could let Suarez and Pederson walk who have team options to free up money or try and move Montgomery and get part of his salary off there books but I do think they will look at adding a less expensive option.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Grt 2BA FL Gator All-Star

Grt 2BA FL Gator

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Hallas said:

Am I crazy for thinking Burnes isn't going to sniff Cole's deal?  I'm thinking like 7/260-280.  I don't think he's going to sniff Cole's deal.  For starters i dont think hes as good a pitcher as Cole was at the time of his signing.  Also, the Yankees aren't going to be in the bidding so that leaves the Mets, Giants, Nats, Orioles as teams that can afford him.  The Sox could too, but they're on the fringe of contention and might opt to develop more with the Yankees and Orioles solidly ahead of them in division.  Only the Mets from that list really seem like teams that would go over 300m for a pitcher, but they will be pressed for money because of the luxury tax.

I really appreciate what Burnes did this year. But forgive me, unless pitching to contact is back in vogue, he doesn’t miss bats nearly as well as he used to.

And front offices seem to pay attention to such things.

For me, I think the contact he induces is valuable. But it seems like he’s lost a little bit of the feel for the hook, which was his put away pitch.

That should ding his value a bit and would limit the amount I would spend on him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

They could let Suarez and Pederson walk who have team options to free up money or try and move Montgomery and get part of his salary off there books but I do think they will look at adding a less expensive option.  

They can use a Ryan to backfill Christian Walker.    I think Suarez and Pederson were both so great helping them score near 900 runs they stay.

I'm enthusiastic once again about Montgomery after the owner's sharp comments.    IRL that is a heavy lift for a GM to put a band-aid on the Club-Player relationship.     It hit me like kind of a Hail Mary to try and shun a guy coming off a bad season who has a high dollar 1-year player option.    I think Montgomery is still good at baseball, and that he had understandable hangover from heroic 2023 work amplified by the Boras awkwardness last winter.

The odd circumstance makes Montgomery a SP on a 1-year contract who is much better than the typical caliber of pitcher on that term.    If that doesn't scream Mike Elias priority for the 2025 Orioles, I don't know what does.     An early look at the 2026 UFA SP on Spotrac - no 2025 stars on their walk year like '24 Burnes.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/_/year/2026/position/sp/type/ufa/sort/contract_value

Elias my guess is will put in an offer that somebody like Brendan Fournie calculates has a low chance of acceptance, and Roch will write about the Orioles making their biggest contract offer in history after Burnes signs for much more with someone else.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OriolesUpAndDowns Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

OriolesUpAndDowns

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

The Dodgers are already over the the $241 million cap at $250 million and they have a ton of guys to pay. It’s not impossible but putting them at 305 million with guys like Lux, May, Gonsolin, Graterol, Phillips, Vesia, and Kopech (who they may not keep). The guys mentioned are all arb 2 or 3 that aren’t included in the number. I just don’t see it 

Good point on the cap issues.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

I really appreciate what Burnes did this year. But forgive me, unless pitching to contact is back in vogue, he doesn’t miss bats nearly as well as he used to.

And front offices seem to pay attention to such things.

For me, I think the contact he induces is valuable. But it seems like he’s lost a little bit of the feel for the hook, which was his put away pitch.

That should ding his value a bit and would limit the amount I would spend on him. 

His whiff rate improved from 2023 despite his K rate going down.  I wouldn't be super worried about that.  I don't think his 95-97th percentile whiff rate from 2021-2022 is coming back but we can probably count on his current whiff rate going forward. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Grt 2BA FL Gator All-Star

Grt 2BA FL Gator

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

His whiff rate improved from 2023 despite his K rate going down.  I wouldn't be super worried about that.  I don't think his 95-97th percentile whiff rate from 2021-2022 is coming back but we can probably count on his current whiff rate going forward. 

Good info thank you! That’s why I love posting here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
e16bball Major Leaguer

e16bball

Posted
Posted (edited)

My concern is that I think a lot of the rumored contract numbers are being driven by his name being “Corbin Burnes” and folks knowing that a few years ago he was probably the greatest pitcher of the moment. 

Which is probably relevant to some extent, because the raw talent/makeup of those who manage to reach the very peak of the mountain does often seem to keep them in the “good” category for longer than others. 

But in terms of evaluating who Burnes is right now, what’s the difference between him and a Joe Musgrove (when he was up for a new deal a couple seasons ago)?

IMG_4006.thumb.jpeg.d70586cbbcb49795984eb49bca81b6e1.jpeg


Musgrove got 5/$100M to stay with the Padres after that 2022 season. Seems like we’re envisioning a pretty steep upcharge for the brand name version.

Edited by e16bball
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, waroriole said:

Lol this guy is clearly an idiot. 

Maybe … but I think Rubinstein will be interested in Corbin returning. I don’t think they can get a better replacement for less in Free Agency and think finding another rental is unwise considering what they’ve already moved. 

Edited by Roll Tide
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gentile4 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Gentile4

Posted
Posted
On 10/4/2024 at 10:37 AM, gamiliel said:

 I don't want to go into another year where the philosophy is that Adley will bat everyday whether he catches or DH's. HIs numbers at DH this year sucked just like his other numbers. 

Agree. Unfortunately, they sucked more when he caught.

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Spakman
      Walltimore

      By Spakman · Posted

      Cowser’s  swing decisions are determined before the pitch is even thrown. And I’ve been saying this all year, and I even said this at the game. I go it’s too early to pinch it for him because his defense is too good but he is 100% going to strike out and that’s exactly what he did with bases loaded. He decides whether he is going to swing a pitch before even thrown This is why he swings at a thrown pretty close to his face . And To be fair,he  had a pretty good season doing that but obviously can be  easily exploited
    • Just Regular
      Walltimore

      By Just Regular · Posted

      Cowser's progress was one of the more encouraging elements this season, especially on the defensive side. I was already crediting him with being Some Kind of Good major leaguer a post back. Between his and Adley's standout bad performances on the HBP and 2-0 count, I give Cowser more of a grace.     Sure he had predetermined intent to swing, but I think the follow through was some raw instinct as hand bones fractured. Adley not swinging was the lowlight how incapacitated he was.    I believe he commands the strike zone, but to feel so low you can't pull the trigger in that spot...sheesh.
    • jabba72
      How does Povich fit into your 2025 plans?

      By jabba72 · Posted

      I believe Elias plans to bring in two more SP's, the quality isnt what im sure about. But no question he'll want to replace Burnes. Which is why I didnt comment in this thread yet because Povich might not have a spot open at the beginning of the year. 
    • bobmc
      Elias: It's on me

      By bobmc · Posted

      So a “Pollyanna” then like me, @wildcard and others (joking of course) 😇 I’m in your camp but really wonder if Elias/Hyde and Co. can truly“flip the script” as @Just Regular alludes.
    • jabba72
      Walltimore

      By jabba72 · Posted

      So thats because the extra space in the OF allows for more balls to fall in? If so, I don't really see an issue if its providing offense in a different way. 
    • jabba72
      Walltimore

      By jabba72 · Posted

      I'm neutral on it. I don't like how the old dimensions played like a wiffle ball field. Both teams have to play on it and the O's do have two good OF's so in that sense it helps us. RHH will probably hate it so very few would ever sign in Baltimore unless they thought the O's were in World Series contention. If they put it in the middle ground then the dimensions become like every other park and Im not sure I want that. At least Camden Yards plays different. 
    • JR Oriole
      ALWC Game 1 Attendance

      By JR Oriole · Posted

      I agree with this.  It was a completely idiotic take to criticize the fans.  And Russo on MLB Network did as well.  Did those guys watch this team at all this year? They were under .500 for the last 88 games of the season.....the worst team in the AL East.  These were the home series they played over the last three months: Chicago Cubs (swept and outscored 21-2), Yankees (lost 2 of 3 and needed two Yankee errors to walk off the last one), San Diego (lost 2 of 3), Toronto (won 3 of 4), Washington (split 1 of 2), Boston (split 2 of 4), Houston (split 2 of 4), White Sox (won 2 of 3 but lost last one 8-1), Tampa (lost 2 of 3), San Fran (lost 2 of 3), Detroit (lost 2 of 3). What is that, 15 - 20 in their last 35 home games?  And then they top it off by losing to the Royals 1 - 0 in the first game?  So fans are supposed to be excited and encouraged by that stretch of baseball?   You want people to show up to games, play like the Padres. Don't have your prized prospects go bust, don't have your stars fall off a cliff, and learn how to play fundamental baseball instead of obsessing about each swing's potential exit velocity.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...