2024 Prospect Promotion Incentive (#32): Griff O'Ferrall - SS - (Jr) Virginia (VA)

[Allan Bryant]

On 7/14/2024 at 10:12 PM, Frobby said:

I don’t get “disappointed” by draft picks.  I don’t know much about these players and I know the Orioles know way more about these players than I do.  So I just cross my fingers and hope for the best.  

That said, this guy seems like a low ceiling/low floor guy.  Hope that turns out to be wrong.   
 

I like your mindset towards baseball draft .  

[Sydnor]

10 hours ago, interloper said:

No, since pitchers get injured extremely frequently for extremely lengthy periods of time, it's best to use your early draft capital on players who are much more likely to stay on the field and either contribute for your team or be traded later for pitching.

And then using the later rounds to find a slew of pitchers who are undervalued but make sense within your player development system. Rather than putting all your eggs in the "guy throws a million miles an hour" basket. 

Outside of Coby Mayo, do any of the position players the Orioles have drafted since 2020 look like they’re going to contribute to the major league team by playing for the team or being part of a meaningful trade? I guess Norby, but I feel like if his value was high he’d have already been traded. I think that you have to throw some darts and if the pitcher breaks I am not that concerned that they missed out on Zach Watson, Hudson Haskin, or Max Wagner. You throw multiple darts in those rounds in hopes that one of those darts turns into Jared Jones or Shane Bieber or Mason Miller. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 7/14/2024 at 10:13 PM, Sports Guy said:

You don’t draft for need but a mature college SS who should, in theory, move quickly seems like an odd pick for a team loaded in the IF.

Bingo. This was the dream draft scenario in terms of potential/upside available when we picked. You get Honeycutt at 22 then have Brecht sitting there at 32. 

Right now, this has nothing to do with player, but the decision we made to pass on NCAA SP with that upside. 

It almost seems like this was an attempt to replace Joey Ortiz. 

[Greg Pappas]

@Tony-OH I'm interested to see where you'll slot the new draftees into your prospect rankings.  

[Rbiggs2525]

15 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

@Tony-OH I'm interested to see where you'll slot the new draftees into your prospect rankings.  

My uninformed guess would be Honeycutt right in front of Bradfield, O’Ferrall after Etzel, and Anderson/Layton somewhere 17-20

[btdart20]

24 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

My uninformed guess would be Honeycutt right in front of Bradfield, O’Ferrall after Etzel, and Anderson/Layton somewhere 17-20

Honeycutt vs. EBJ in a bit of a swing-type/approach grudge match!  May the odds ever be in your favor!

[Rbiggs2525]

31 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Honeycutt vs. EBJ in a bit of a swing-type/approach grudge match!  May the odds ever be in your favor!

I will always go high ceiling when it comes to prospects that match up. Honeycutt has a chance to be a number one overall prospect with the right coaching and swing changes. He is first in HR, second in runs, 4th in SB for UNC all time leaderboard. 

[Otter]

1 hour ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I will always go high ceiling when it comes to prospects that match up. Honeycutt has a chance to be a number one overall prospect with the right coaching and swing changes. He is first in HR, second in runs, 4th in SB for UNC all time leaderboard. 

He does have some elite raw tools, but is missing perhaps one of the most important...the hit tool.  Maybe our coaches can fix the huge swing and miss problem, maybe they can't.  But all-time college stats really have nothing to do with whether he can make enough contact against the higher level pitching he will face.  

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Honeycutt vs. EBJ in a bit of a swing-type/approach grudge match!  May the odds ever be in your favor!

Those two will also be an interesting case study how much SIGBOT only only only likes left handed bats in OPACY.

Also if Mayo becomes the one Elias structures his Skubal bid around.

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

@Tony-OH I'm interested to see where you'll slot the new draftees into your prospect rankings.  

I need to do more analysis before starting to do that, but Honeycutt will certainly be in the top 10.

[sportsfan8703]

The O’Ferrall pick at 32 seems like it’s the defining pick of this draft. Insert another more fitting word for defining. My point being is that it’s where we potentially missed on Waldschmidt falling to us by one spot, and pivoted to O’Ferrall instead of Brody Brecht. 

The rest of the draft looks similar to last year’s draft with just couple less arms. Maybe we took more fliers on overslots/high ceiling/signing risk guys this year. Especially at the end. 

We obviously favor positional value. CF, SS, C. Being strong at those positions has to factor in big time to the year in/year out grind to consistent win. Such an edge on other MLB teams. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 7/15/2024 at 7:17 AM, Sports Guy said:

Kiley McDaniel had him 26th…one spot below Honeycutt.

Interesting. Maybe that changes the perception of the pick a bit. Again, nothing about the player. Just the choice to pass on Brecht with even our pick at 32. 

[Just Regular]

ESPN KIley post-draft analysis on Griff.

One big thought: I had Honeycutt and Griff O'Ferrall back to back in my final rankings, so while Honeycutt will rank just ahead of him on the Orioles' list, O'Ferrall represents better value going 10 picks later. The O's continue to show that they can diversify their typical type of draftee: Honeycutt was among the worst of the collegiate hitters taken on Day 1 at in-zone miss rate (21%), while O'Ferrall was among the best (4%). Both have flaws to dial in -- Honeycutt might need a swing/timing tweak to unlock more contact, while O'Ferrall needs to find more in-game power -- but rival clubs are fearful of what the Orioles' development machine can do when they get a hitter with some premium skills. They just got a few more.

[Otter]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The O’Ferrall pick at 32 seems like it’s the defining pick of this draft. Insert another more fitting word for defining. My point being is that it’s where we potentially missed on Waldschmidt falling to us by one spot, and pivoted to O’Ferrall instead of Brody Brecht. 

The rest of the draft looks similar to last year’s draft with just couple less arms. Maybe we took more fliers on overslots/high ceiling/signing risk guys this year. Especially at the end. 

We obviously favor positional value. CF, SS, C. Being strong at those positions has to factor in big time to the year in/year out grind to consistent win. Such an edge on other MLB teams. 

I agree with you on the importance of this pick.  They passed on Brecht and some others that might have been more of a need for our system, but I'm willing to see how O'Ferrall develops before being too disappointed.  And of course they have more info than us, so perhaps there were signability/health/character issues with others that we'll never know about.

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The O’Ferrall pick at 32 seems like it’s the defining pick of this draft. Insert another more fitting word for defining. My point being is that it’s where we potentially missed on Waldschmidt falling to us by one spot, and pivoted to O’Ferrall instead of Brody Brecht. 

The rest of the draft looks similar to last year’s draft with just couple less arms. Maybe we took more fliers on overslots/high ceiling/signing risk guys this year. Especially at the end. 

We obviously favor positional value. CF, SS, C. Being strong at those positions has to factor in big time to the year in/year out grind to consistent win. Such an edge on other MLB teams. 

I think every team drafts a disproportionately high number of cf-ss-c.