2024 3rd Round Pick (#97): Austin Overn - OF - (So) USC (CA)

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

With some time to reflect on this draft, Overn is my favorite pick. It seems he was really gaining some helium with his wood bat performance in the Cape Cod league.

But most importantly, players with true elite CF/SS/C profiles are exceptionally rare - there’s only a handful of them in any given draft. The Orioles just spent both of their last first round draft picks on guys that have them. In Overn they got that same profile with a 3rd round pick.

Of course, the offensive part is still a huge side of the equation - for instance your Maverick Handley and Silas Ardoin types are not worth anything if their offense is so poor. But for Overn, it doesn’t seem his bat is so far behind Bradfield or Honeycutt, there’s enough there offensively that this feels like it could be a tremendous value. 

Makes me wonder though, if Overn has similar traits as Bradfield and was acquired in the 3rd round in what most consider a down draft, why was Bradfield taken at #17? It will be interesting to follow which one of them does better overall.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Makes me wonder though, if Overn has similar traits as Bradfield and was acquired in the 3rd round in what most consider a down draft, why was Bradfield taken at #17? It will be interesting to follow which one of them does better overall.

Yea I said the same thing when he was drafted.

And this is a worst draft.  So, was Bradfield a bad pick? Or did this guy slip through the cracks for some reason?

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I said the same thing when he was drafted.

And this is a worst draft.  So, was Bradfield a bad pick? Or did this guy slip through the cracks for some reason?

A fair question.  It makes you wonder.  Bradfield was a consensus 1st round pick and this kid was definitely not.

Only thing I got is the SEC is the best conference in college baseball and the PAC 10 or whatever they call it these days is considered inferior.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I think Bradfield was (and still is) higher regarded than Overn because his hit tool is better. Bradfield has elite in zone contact rates.

At draft time, I think Bradfield was also considered to have more upside because he was doing that all with some bad hitting mechanics - with some swing changes there could be more to unlock. I don’t know how much that has materialized in his first pro year, though. 

Bradfield could still be a 100 wRC+ type player so long as he unlocks just enough power to keep pitchers honest. Overn probably needs to tap into some power a bit more to get to that level. 

[Tony-OH]

29 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think Bradfield was (and still is) higher regarded than Overn because his hit tool is better. Bradfield has elite in zone contact rates.

At draft time, I think Bradfield was also considered to have more upside because he was doing that all with some bad hitting mechanics - with some swing changes there could be more to unlock. I don’t know how much that has materialized in his first pro year, though. 

Bradfield could still be a 100 wRC+ type player so long as he unlocks just enough power to keep pitchers honest. Overn probably needs to tap into some power a bit more to get to that level. 

You very well may be right, but it's going to be interesting to follow both. 

[Sports Guy]

20 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think Bradfield was (and still is) higher regarded than Overn because his hit tool is better. Bradfield has elite in zone contact rates.

At draft time, I think Bradfield was also considered to have more upside because he was doing that all with some bad hitting mechanics - with some swing changes there could be more to unlock. I don’t know how much that has materialized in his first pro year, though. 

Bradfield could still be a 100 wRC+ type player so long as he unlocks just enough power to keep pitchers honest. Overn probably needs to tap into some power a bit more to get to that level. 

Keith Law had this to say about him:

USC outfielder Austin Overn (3) was probably the most disappointing player I saw in person this year. I didn’t see feel to hit or other tools to make up for it, and he hit just .274/.349/.461 in a weak Pac 12 this year before going to the Cape, where he’s been raking for a month. I didn’t even see the advertised speed, and thought he’d have to go to a corner. He’s a true center fielder, and if he can just make more contact, he’s got the slap-and-go, low-power profile that would make him a decent extra outfielder.
 

 

So yea, I think it’s fair to say the hit took is the big difference if what Law is saying here is correct.

[Rbiggs2525]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Keith Law had this to say about him:

USC outfielder Austin Overn (3) was probably the most disappointing player I saw in person this year. I didn’t see feel to hit or other tools to make up for it, and he hit just .274/.349/.461 in a weak Pac 12 this year before going to the Cape, where he’s been raking for a month. I didn’t even see the advertised speed, and thought he’d have to go to a corner. He’s a true center fielder, and if he can just make more contact, he’s got the slap-and-go, low-power profile that would make him a decent extra outfielder.
 

 

So yea, I think it’s fair to say the hit took is the big difference if what Law is saying here is correct.

I always take these national scouts with a grain of salt. It’s such a short sample for them to go see a player. The statistics were already shown he was a top 3 defender in terms of OAA. So when he writes he’s not sure he will stick in CF it reminds me of Cowser small sample size last year. Basically negates the rest of his opinion.

[Malike]

Carlos Collazo from BA.

Listed at 6-foot and 175 pounds, Overn is a similar player to Honeycutt and one of the best athletes in the class. He had a tough spring at USC, batting .270 with eight home runs, but looked like a completely different player in the Cape Cod Baseball League, which made him one of the highest risers in the draft, Collazo said.

Overn was a wide receiver on the 2022 USC football team as well.

[Getz]

 

[OsFanInOhio]

24 minutes ago, Getz said:

 

Excellent. Only 100k over slot is nice to hear. Means we have 400k-550k leftover for high schoolers even without even dipping into the 5% we can go over a lot (which I hope we do use if it means signing any additional draftees). 

[Sports Guy]

Why would this guy get overslot money I wonder?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Why would this guy get overslot money I wonder?

Positional need, he's a college outfielder.

 

 

He's a Sophomore.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would this guy get overslot money I wonder?

Draft-eligible sophomore.  

[sportsfan8703]

On 7/19/2024 at 1:29 PM, Tony-OH said:

You very well may be right, but it's going to be interesting to follow both. 

The EBJ pick could've been more about taking a safe BPA given that we knew we were going to have to make trades for pitching in the upcoming future.  Speed and Defense are always market-able.  

It is good to have a CF pipeline for the time being.  Seems like we've doubled down at CF the way we did with SS before.  Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz, Hernaiz, Holliday...  Now we have Fabian, EBJ, Honeycutt, and this dude for CF.  

Edited July 24 by sportsfan8703

[Number5]

7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It is good to have a CF pipeline for the time being.  Seems like we've doubled down at CF the way we did with SS before.  Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz, Hernaiz, Holliday...  Now we have Fabian, EBJ, Honeycutt, and this dude for CF.  

And possibly Nate George.