Trading for Tarik Skubal

[E-D-D-I-E]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Personally, I’m skidding about seeing him in LF in any park. Probably anywhere in the outfield. There is nothing smooths about his OF play.

Have you seen O'Hearn in the outfield? I am not giving away a potential .280/35/100 guy based on his shaky outfield play, thus far. The kid is gonna hit and if makes a few blunders along the way so be it. Miguel Tejada was no Mark Belanger.

[Big Mac]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I wonder if the trade of Hays helps our bargaining position with using Stowers as a trade chip a bit.  I'm sure Elias hears from other GMs that Stowers is a spare part and we have no room for him.  Now, Elias can justifiably say "well I just traded Hays and Santander is likely leaving in FA, so we are counting on him for 2025 and beyond."

Not that I think it's anything that really moves the needle. 

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Have you seen O'Hearn in the outfield? I am not giving away a potential .280/35/100 guy based on his shaky outfield play, thus far. The kid is gonna hit and if makes a few blunders along the way so be it. Miguel Tejada was no Mark Belanger.

You might be alone ….

[interloper]

The Stowers thing sorta just sounds like speculation to me. Musing about the various names who could be involved, etc. 

[Tony-OH]

Elias has to be looking for an impact reliever as well here. I just don't see them pulling off Skubel deal now that he got Eflin. I'd be pleasently suprised as long as he doesn't give up the house. 

Stowers and Norby though are two guys that will most likely go in trades. Stowers is ready to play everyday at the major league level, but then so Coby Mayo.

[E-D-D-I-E]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

You might be alone ….

That's ok if I am. I have seen little of Kjerstad in the outfield, so it's tough to prognosticate. But I don't see him being worse than O'Hearn. Time will tell. 

[Three Run Homer]

12 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Have you seen O'Hearn in the outfield? I am not giving away a potential .280/35/100 guy based on his shaky outfield play, thus far. The kid is gonna hit and if makes a few blunders along the way so be it. Miguel Tejada was no Mark Belanger.

I think Kjerstad can handle RF at OPACY and could handle LF in most parks, just not Walltimore.  He may have a limited role this year but I would expect him to be the everyday RF next season assuming the O's don't resign Santander.  If the O's are planning to resign Santander then Kjerstad becomes the guy to trade.  

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I hope it's true, if for no other reason than for Kyle to get a legitimate chance.

If I've posted it a million times, I'll post it a million more times - HK is a bad Major League defender in the OF. I don't want him in LF at OPACY and don't see him as a reasonable replacement in RF should Ant leave in Free Agency. He's destined for 1B or to give up owning a glove at all, a la David Ortiz. HK's bat obviously plays and I'm not necessarily suggesting that I would, but if we squint hard enough, we can see a world in which a team might actually prefer Kyle over HK in a deal. This would obviously mean that the other pieces in the deal would be further up the prospect list but I could see a team like Detroit wanting a ML ready OF who can also glove it.

I'd prefer to move HK for the reason that the other pieces would be further down the prospect list. 

[banks703]

21 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

That's ok if I am. I have seen little of Kjerstad in the outfield, so it's tough to prognosticate. But I don't see him being worse than O'Hearn. Time will tell. 

He is worse than O'Hearn. 

[Roll Tide]

28 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Have you seen O'Hearn in the outfield? I am not giving away a potential .280/35/100 guy based on his shaky outfield play, thus far. The kid is gonna hit and if makes a few blunders along the way so be it. Miguel Tejada was no Mark Belanger.

 

21 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

That's ok if I am. I have seen little of Kjerstad in the outfield, so it's tough to prognosticate. But I don't see him being worse than O'Hearn. Time will tell. 

O’Hearn plays 1B, So he shouldn’t be in the Of either. So I’m not sure why you are comparing the two. Watching Kjerstad track flyballs just looks awkward to me. Maybe not smooth is the word I’m looking for. On the misplaced ball his first step was in and that’s a huge reason why he didn’t catch it. I love his bat but I’m worried he’s a DH on a company that plays good defense. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

He is worse than O'Hearn. 

O'Hearn is definitely a worse defensively outfielder than Kjerstad. Kjerstad covers two feet more per second (jump), has a much better arm (96.1 max throw vs 85.3 for O'Hearn) and has 79 percentile spring speed to O'Hearn's 57th percentile.

Can't really use OAA because either has played enough out there for big differences, but I want one in the outfield it's going to be Kjerstad over O'Hearn.

[RZNJ]

The Tigers have Riley Greene in LF and Kerry Carpenter (IL) in RF.    I don’t see Kjerstad or Stowers as a good fit.   They’re going to want Mayo or Holliday to head a package.

[jdwilde1]

My biggest concern with the O’s trading its top prospects for Skubal is his injury history.  Can you imagine the OH if Skubal comes up with forearm tightness in September after moving 2 of the top 3 prospects for Skubal?  Then a dreaded second TJ and we are talking about hopefully getting him back for the second half of 2026.  
 

That might be worst case scenario, but it’s definitely something to consider.  And I know that there is injury risk involved with all pitchers, but Skubal is a guy who already had TJ surgery and then a flexor tendon repair.  
 

From a Cody Stavenahgen article a few weeks ago: 

 

 Something was wrong inside the limb that guaranteed Skubal’s livelihood, but the imaging was not entirely clear. Before Skubal received the anesthesia, he knew what was at stake. If ElAttrache found damage to Skubal’s ulnar collateral ligament, he would face a second Tommy John surgery in seven years. The best-case scenario was not all that much better. Skubal likely needed at least a flexor tendon repair, a surgery that would still cost him nearly a year.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5622374/2024/07/08/tarik-skubal-all-star-game-tigers-pitcher/#

[Hank Scorpio]

6 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

My biggest concern with the O’s trading its top prospects for Skubal is his injury history.  Can you imagine the OH if Skubal comes up with forearm tightness in September after moving 2 of the top 3 prospects for Skubal?  Then a dreaded second TJ and we are talking about hopefully getting him back for the second half of 2026.  
 

That might be worst case scenario, but it’s definitely something to consider.  And I know that there is injury risk involved with all pitchers, but Skubal is a guy who already had TJ surgery and then a flexor tendon repair.  
 

From a Cody Stavenahgen article a few weeks ago: 

 

 Something was wrong inside the limb that guaranteed Skubal’s livelihood, but the imaging was not entirely clear. Before Skubal received the anesthesia, he knew what was at stake. If ElAttrache found damage to Skubal’s ulnar collateral ligament, he would face a second Tommy John surgery in seven years. The best-case scenario was not all that much better. Skubal likely needed at least a flexor tendon repair, a surgery that would still cost him nearly a year.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5622374/2024/07/08/tarik-skubal-all-star-game-tigers-pitcher/#

It's scary, for sure. It always is with every pitcher, though. 

Do some thorough medicals on anyone prior to deals and then hope for the best. He's been pitching his ass off this year. 

[Brooks The Great]

58 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

That's ok if I am. I have seen little of Kjerstad in the outfield, so it's tough to prognosticate. But I don't see him being worse than O'Hearn. Time will tell. 

You're not alone. Defense is more overrated than ever with pitchers having such a huge advantage over hitters. Stud offensive players are the most rare commidity there is in today's game, and Kjerstad is the type of hitter who can be an elite 40+ HR bat.

I might be willing to trade him and a couple other smaller pieces like Stowers and Beavers for Skubal, but that's it. I don't think that's enough for the Tigers, and I don't think the Tigers wind up moving Skubal anyway.

I find it pretty unreasonable that so many OH posters are so willing to trade Kjerstad based on his defense, as if he'll never improve. Many of the same posters criticized Cowser's defense last season, and he's elite now. Cowser is a much better defensive outfielder than Kjerstad, but there was an acclimation period that he needed. Kjerstad is likely getting used to MLB parks and Oriole Park as well. 

The team can hide Kjerstad in RF, 1B, and DH next season. I want to keep him, and I hope Elias's conservative approach of only dealing from the organization's depth continues.