Trading for Tarik Skubal

[banks703]

21 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Then the O’s should hang up the phone. Simple. 

This is narrow thinking. With the current roster construction both JH and HK are less of a priority than a TOR starter. Does Skubal come with some concern? Of course, every pitcher is one throw away from catastrophy but the O's are in a legitimate World Series window and this year could very well be their best chance with Burnes anchoring the staff. Add Skubal to a three-headed playoff rotation with GrayRod and Burnes and they likely have the best starting options of any playoff team this year.

HK is a fine prospect. He was a top 40 guy coming into this year but the truth is, he's had moments with this 24' team but he's not moved the needle. Could he? Sure. As much as a legit TOR starter could? No.

Everyone wants to focus on "you're judging JH off of 34 ABs bla bla bla".. no I'm not. I've been extremely vocal about my feelings on him as a player and believe that he can be a legitimate star in the league but he's not going to move Gunnar off of SS and as much as people want to attach themselves to his OAA this year in limited games (which, I refuse to buy into) his defensive profile is below that of JW and several other prospects in their system. That is a fact.

I'll post it again..it may come down to between JH and Mayo and who they feel they can most afford to move. To me, it's JH. I've seen them both play a considerable amount and while everyone glosses over Mayo's size and assume that he can't play a ML 3B, cite some of this throwing errors, he is actually extremely mobile and athletic, not just for a kid 6'5. The question with him at Third is the same question evaluators had about Gunnar at SS - can he improve his consistency? I think that he can and I think that Jordan Westburg profiles better as a 2B for the O's for the next five years than he does as a 3B.

Mayo and Skubal are more valuable to the 2024 Orioles (and 25 and 26 teams) than JH and HK.

I'm not moving JH for anything less than a controllable (this year plus at least two more years) TOR arm. Skubal comes with baggage and I don't even love him as a pitcher. I've stated that numerous times. But I make this deal, especially if a major league reliever is coming back in it. 

 

[banks703]

11 minutes ago, winston24 said:

I don't see Elias trading Holliday, Mayo, or Basallo.  Along with the rest of the core (Gunnar, Adler, Kjerstad, Westburg, Cowser, etc) they form Orioles success the next 7 years or so.

 

The trade pieces are pretty much anyone else in the minors and several guys on the big league roster.  Also, don't rule out Burnes coming back.  Rubinstein will spend.

It's a huge assumption that all of Mayo, Basallo, Kjerstad and JH are all going to perform well enough to be part of a core. The O's have a high success rate on top prospects now but eventually someone is not going to pan out as we hope.

They aren't trading any of those guys for unproven players. They're trading them only for proven commodities who increase their chances of winning the World Series for the next several years, starting with this year's team while they have Burnes under contract. 

[Sports Guy]

41 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Very true. Pitchers are always big injury risks. 

And some are bigger risks than others.  Trading one of those guys only to have Skubal miss 18 months would be devastating.

[dzorange]

MLB Network joining in on the fun: 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C9x14QsAZad/?igsh=MXJmc3E3ZTlnY3U0NA==

 

 

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, banks703 said:

It's a huge assumption that all of Mayo, Basallo, Kjerstad and JH are all going to perform well enough to be part of a core. The O's have a high success rate on top prospects now but eventually someone is not going to pan out as we hope.

They aren't trading any of those guys for unproven players. They're trading them only for proven commodities who increase their chances of winning the World Series for the next several years, starting with this year's team while they have Burnes under contract. 

This is a fair point, and taking a moment to appreciate the good work already done, some of the high hopes are because Gunnar and Westburg have been so wildly successful.    Adley's just Adley.

Haskin does look like a ~$2M bust, and all teams have busts, often even more expensive than that, but Elias really hasn't yet.    It is inevitable he will, whether it ends up being EBJ or Honeycutt or even still one of Kjerstad or Cowser.

But Mayo and Holliday and Basallo are all pretty close to being the world's greatest hitters of their age, and that isn't something I feel great about letting go of even for Skubal, a $350k arm.     Some of what he's achieved has been with increased oomph despite the surgeon already having some of his talent.

I do believe Holliday's 2024 struggles are in part because he was trying to rush getting to his man power.    He's seen how Orioles player development required line drive hitters like Norby and Cowser to alter their games.     Anthony Volpe's 2023-2024 of "year 1 swing for the fences, year 2 oh wait maybe don't do that" is I think a famous example of a process many of the world's best young hitters are iterating through figuring out how to optimize their games.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And some are bigger risks than others.  Trading one of those guys only to have Skubal miss 18 months would be devastating.

There is always risk in trading. The better the player a team wants, the more risk they have to incur. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There is always risk in trading. The better the player a team wants, the more risk they have to incur. 

No doubt but I think adding a mid guy, a few excellent high leverage relievers and keeping our best players is the better way to go.

Out hit them, shut down after 6 innings and lean on Burnes and GRod.  That would be my play.

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This is a fair point, and taking a moment to appreciate the good work already done, some of the high hopes are because Gunnar and Westburg have been so wildly successful.    Adley's just Adley.

Haskin does look like a ~$2M bust, and all teams have busts, often even more expensive than that, but Elias really hasn't yet.    It is inevitable he will, whether it ends up being EBJ or Honeycutt or even still one of Kjerstad or Cowser.

But Mayo and Holliday and Basallo are all pretty close to being the world's greatest hitters of their age, and that isn't something I feel great about letting go of even for Skubal, a $350k arm.     Some of what he's achieved has been with increased oomph despite the surgeon already having some of his talent.

I do believe Holliday's 2024 struggles are in part because he was trying to rush getting to his man power.    He's seen how Orioles player development required line drive hitters like Norby and Cowser to alter their games.     Anthony Volpe's 2023-2024 of "year 1 swing for the fences, year 2 oh wait maybe don't do that" is I think a famous example of a process many of the world's best young hitters are iterating through figuring out how to optimize their games.

I can't disagree with any of this and I point out in my posts that I don't love the idea of moving JH but that of the big three, I think he is the most expendable of the bunch. I also note that I don't love Skubal and while I would make the deals that I suggested in earlier posts, I would hope Elias is working his ass off to have other options. As @Tony-OH stated in another post, I would begrudgingly do it. That doesn't mean that I would give away potential superstardom.

In professional sports, next year is so difficult to project. So many things can happen which is why I concede that making a deal to land a legitimate TOR guy, who is controllable beyond this year, is worth the prospect capital that it would require. I think folks on here believe that I am anti-Jackson Holliday. I'm not. LOL. If he is with the organization throughout his entire career I'll be ecstatic and root for him just like every other player but I am also not going to romanticize and forget the fact that baseball is a business, there are a lot of factors that go into running a successful franchise and that player dynamics and talent are only a few of what is required to be good. Gunnar isn't going anywhere. He is the face of the franchise. Adley is the second least likely to be moved. Everyone else beyond that is 2nd tier right now. Could that change? Of course but in the last 25 years, how often have the Orioles had a legitimate, bonafide ACE of their staff who could carry them in the post-season? Never.

Burnes is that good and could pitch them to a World Series this year. GrayRod is a fantastic second or third guy in a playoff rotation with soooo much room to further improve. If the O's are going to compete for a championship, this year may be their best year to do so because of Burnes but they need another guy to slot at the top with him and GrayRod and if moving a JH (or a Mayo or Basallo, etc.) means improving their WS odds by 10% or 15%.. I take that chance but hey, my risk tolerance is higher than most. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt but I think adding a mid guy, a few excellent high leverage relievers and keeping our best players is the better way to go.

Out hit them, shut down after 6 innings and lean on Burnes and GRod.  That would be my play.

I'm not saying it's not a valid way to go, but are you saying that you are ok with not acquiring an impact arm at the trading deadline? You are fine with rolling what they got? 

 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt but I think adding a mid guy, a few excellent high leverage relievers and keeping our best players is the better way to go.

Out hit them, shut down after 6 innings and lean on Burnes and GRod.  That would be my play.

I'm confused. In earlier posts you said it's a waste of resources acquiring anyone who wouldn't be a playoff difference maker, no?

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I can't disagree with any of this and I point out in my posts that I don't love the idea of moving JH but that of the big three, I think he is the most expendable of the bunch. I also note that I don't love Skubal and while I would make the deals that I suggested in earlier posts, I would hope Elias is working his ass off to have other options. As @Tony-OH stated in another post, I would begrudgingly do it. That doesn't mean that I would give away potential superstardom.

In professional sports, next year is so difficult to project. So many things can happen which is why I concede that making a deal to land a legitimate TOR guy, who is controllable beyond this year, is worth the prospect capital that it would require. I think folks on here believe that I am anti-Jackson Holliday. I'm not. LOL. If he is with the organization throughout his entire career I'll be ecstatic and root for him just like every other player but I am also not going to romanticize and forget the fact that baseball is a business, there are a lot of factors that go into running a successful franchise and that player dynamics and talent are only a few of what is required to be good. Gunnar isn't going anywhere. He is the face of the franchise. Adley is the second least likely to be moved. Everyone else beyond that is 2nd tier right now. Could that change? Of course but in the last 25 years, how often have the Orioles had a legitimate, bonafide ACE of their staff who could carry them in the post-season? Never.

Burnes is that good and could pitch them to a World Series this year. GrayRod is a fantastic second or third guy in a playoff rotation with soooo much room to further improve. If the O's are going to compete for a championship, this year may be their best year to do so because of Burnes but they need another guy to slot at the top with him and GrayRod and if moving a JH (or a Mayo or Basallo, etc.) means improving their WS odds by 10% or 15%.. I take that chance but hey, my risk tolerance is higher than most. 

A 70/60/60 power, hit, run tool is not the most expendable to me. He is someone capable of playing middle INF. 

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, dzorange said:

MLB Network joining in on the fun: 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C9x14QsAZad/?igsh=MXJmc3E3ZTlnY3U0NA==

 

 

If there is any scenario where we can keep Holliday and Mayo AND get an ace, I’m all in!

[banks703]

Just now, eddie83 said:

A 70/60/60 power, hit, run tool is not the most expendable to me. He is someone capable of playing middle INF. 

I have doubts that he will realize that 60 power projection but the hit tool is certainly elite. I'm not taking anything away from that. 

He's not going to be a good major league SS. If he sticks in the INF it's 2B where the bat certainly plays up quite a bit but the defense is still not going to be elite. I still don't rule out a move to the Outfield. If he could be Jackson Merrill out there, I think we all would be fine with a move to CF and I personally believe that Holliday is the better overall athlete. 

[Bemorewins]

22 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This is a fair point, and taking a moment to appreciate the good work already done, some of the high hopes are because Gunnar and Westburg have been so wildly successful.    Adley's just Adley.

Haskin does look like a ~$2M bust, and all teams have busts, often even more expensive than that, but Elias really hasn't yet.    It is inevitable he will, whether it ends up being EBJ or Honeycutt or even still one of Kjerstad or Cowser.

But Mayo and Holliday and Basallo are all pretty close to being the world's greatest hitters of their age, and that isn't something I feel great about letting go of even for Skubal, a $350k arm.     Some of what he's achieved has been with increased oomph despite the surgeon already having some of his talent.

I do believe Holliday's 2024 struggles are in part because he was trying to rush getting to his man power.    He's seen how Orioles player development required line drive hitters like Norby and Cowser to alter their games.     Anthony Volpe's 2023-2024 of "year 1 swing for the fences, year 2 oh wait maybe don't do that" is I think a famous example of a process many of the world's best young hitters are iterating through figuring out how to optimize their games.

Mayo has a long way to go to be a better hitter than Gunnar (who is the same age). What Mayo is doing at AAA is extremely impressive. But Gunnar is doing it at the hugest level.

[interloper]

25 minutes ago, dzorange said:

MLB Network joining in on the fun: 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C9x14QsAZad/?igsh=MXJmc3E3ZTlnY3U0NA==

 

 

I would probably make this trade all day. Altho it might hurt our ability to get relievers. You'd need to keep Stowers for depth almost certainly with Kjerstad gone. 

Maybe you could get a reliever for Mounty and bring up Mayo. 

I also am always surprised by these theoretical deals for pitching that don't include any pitching in return. Can't see the Tigers not demanding a pitching prospect in there.

Edited July 23 by interloper