O's acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from Marlins

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It would not surprise me if they change his pitch usage. They also may have him go with his 4-seamer a lot more often than the sinker. He's got real good spin rate on his low 90s fastball and that along with his extension helps it play up. 

Sounds John Means-y to me. Rogers only started throwing the sinker last year and is using it a fair amount this year, probably to compensate for the lack of four seamer velo. The sinker is good to have for lefty matchups, particularly since the slider is so bad, but maybe he just needs to be going heavier four seamer / change against righties and not trying to get ground balls off sinkers. 

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't know. But would love to find out.

Again, Skubal and Snell seem like they're staying put. So you'd be complaining about trading for Rogers over guys like Fedde, Kikuchi, and Flaherty. Solid pitchers, granted, but a far cry from Rogers vs Skubal or Snell. 

Crochet still has a chance to be traded, but it never seemed likely for the Orioles because of his innings count and weird contract demand. 

[Go_Os]

22 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

That’s disingenuous. “Over his career” means much less than “recently.”

 

 

He's young and has only pitched a total of 391 innings, so the stats are the stats.  This year is his lowest at 7.3K/9, which isn't horrible.

[Billy F-Face3]

This is the worst trade I've ever seen Elias make and I hated the Flaherty trade too. But at least Flaherty didn't cost us 2 premium prospect players that should have landed a pitcher 3 times better.

[HowAboutThat]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, did you expect anything different?  People need to see a name guy.

People don’t give a flip about “name guy,” but need to see a trade that benefits the team, and this arguably doesn’t. Rogers is not better than Kremer or Eflin, and there’s no indication the current performance is going to meaningfully improve. So even though what was traded had no place on the team, what was received makes no impact aside from losing prospects that could have been used for a meaningful pickup.

And the Royals just got Erceg.

[J.D.]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

This is the worst trade I've ever seen Elias make and I hated the Flaherty trade too. But at least Flaherty didn't cost us 2 premium prospect players that should have landed a pitcher 3 times better.

A pitcher 3 times better? That's funny. Name him? Which pitcher on the trade market should the Orioles have gotten for Norby and Stowers?

Edited July 30 by J.D.

[Just Regular]

Trevor Rogers as symbol of young pitcher's workloads being throttled by today's organizations:

His health track record seems checkered, but he is 7th in Innings Pitched among all 1997 births, the cohort turning 27 some time this year.

Gilbert 630, Luzardo 510, Javier 500, McKenzie 430, McClanahan 400, Bryse Wilson 390, Rogers 390

The six ahead of him, I think only Gilbert actively pitching in MLB this summer.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Last 9 starts 3.17 ERA

I think this must be the key here.  The O’s have been scouting Rogers, and he’s been pitching well while they’ve been watching him.  My question is, are there underlying reasons why he’s pitched that well lately?  Has he changed what he’s doing?   Are there reasons to think the improvement is sustainable?   Or are the O’s just putting a lot of stock in a SSS run of good luck?  I have no idea, but I don’t think the O’s would have made this trade if Rogers was plodding along at his 4.53 ERA season average over the last two months.   They must like something he’s doing and think he can continue to pitch well down the stretch.  

I see this as a move that stabilizes the back of our rotation but isn’t really a postseason-booster.   It helps us get to the postseason.   

As to the price, it depends on how Rogers performs.  If he performs at his career average I think we overpaid.  We can afford to give up both Norby and Stowers, but in a world where Darrel Hernaiz gets you Cole Irvin, Norby and Stowers should get you more than a guy with Trevor Rogers’ track record.   

 

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, J.D. said:

A pitcher 3 times better? That's funny. Name him? Which pitcher should the Orioles have gotten for Norby and Stowers?

If Ortiz can get Corbin Burnes, Norby and Stowers could at least get Scott or maybe even lead a package for Snell. 

And if they refuse, there's no good reason give away good assets for a dime a dozen 5 ERA pitcher.

[J.D.]

2 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

People don’t give a flip about “name guy,” but need to see a trade that benefits the team, and this arguably doesn’t. Rogers is not better than Kremer or Eflin, and there’s no indication the current performance is going to meaningfully improve. So even though what was traded had no place on the team, what was received makes no impact aside from losing prospects that could have been used for a meaningful pickup.

And the Royals just got Erceg.

You mean the Royals grossly overpaid for Erceg, a guy who is not any better than Keegan Akin.

[ledzepp8]

25 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't know. But would love to find out.

This is kind of a silly post. I think you can infer the answer.  Either he's not available or he's not available for something closer to Norby and Stowers. 

[elextrano8]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If Ortiz can get Corbin Burnes, Norby and Stowers could at least get Scott or maybe even lead a package for Snell. 

And if they refuse, there's no good reason give away good assets for a dime a dozen 5 ERA pitcher.

You do understand that markets, and therefore prices, change over time, right?

[xian4]

Tanner Scott to the Padres

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

If Ortiz can get Corbin Burnes, Norby and Stowers could at least get Scott or maybe even lead a package for Snell. 

And if they refuse, there's no good reason give away good assets for a dime a dozen 5 ERA pitcher.

1. Ortiz is a bonafide premium SS. And Hall, who you conveniently left out, was still a big SP prospect at the time of the trade.
2. Burnes only had 1 year of control.
3. Burnes came with a $15 million pricetag.

[HowAboutThat]

34 minutes ago, terpoh said:

FYI

Trevor Rogers 1.4 bWAR in 104 innings

Zach Eflin 0.8 bWAR in 116 innings

That just means we overpaid twice!