Orioles acquire Gregory Soto

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd actually argue that he executed fine on that one pitch to Varsho.  That was a slider that broke across the plate and was about 4-6 inches off the plate when he pulled it into RF.  That's, like, what Ryan Mountcastle wishes he could do, execpt from the opposite side.  

Varsho isn't a great hitter, he shouldn't have been able to do that.  I don't think he's able to do that if he tried 10 more times.

Soto has been bad so far but all that matters is what SG said above...if he can get right before the playoffs.

 

The problem was he had seen the same pitch in the same location twice in a row before that. You can't give a professional hitter that many chances to get you timed up.

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, Ceciltrav said:

The price for Soto really was Seth Johnson?  That is the part that has me scratching my head?  I thought Johnson was one of our better pitching prospects?

Actually Moises Chace who went with Johnson may end up the better prospect and big league player. Johnson didn't do a lot to impress me this year and while he was pitching better of late, he has to hope that cutter becomes the "fastball" that he needed because that fastball was flat and hittable.

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is that Akin joins the team tonight and Soto goes to mop up duty to find his control.   The O's pitching coaches have helped pitchers in the past and I think there is talent in Soto.

Who goes for him though? 

Akin had to go because of numbers and because he had an option. So who goes if he comes up and Soto goes to "mop up". 

I think the Orioles are going to live with Soto right now, but he will probably have to do some mop up work for a bit. They certainly aren't going to give up on him after two bad appearances. 

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, bpilktree67 said:

The only right hander in the next 4 is Kirk who has reverse splits hitting .136 vs them.  

That's incorrect, though. It went: Horwitz (L), Kirk (R), Varsho (L), Clement (R). 

The only decent hitter among those against righties is Horwitz. And you could just put him on and take your chances against:

• Kirk - 647 OPS on the year, 676 OPS righties
• Varsho - 683 OPS on the year, 673 OPS righties and actually hits them worse than lefties (has a 189 batting average against righties)
• Clement - 710 OPS on the year, 685 against righties 

Call me crazy, but the only hitters you're really scared of are Vladdy and maybe Horwitz situationally. 

I think Hyde got way too cute, and it's indefensible to go to Soto who has been abysmal with the O's, so you can't trust him in a 1-0 game. 

And folks saying this wasn't a high leverage situation are completely incorrect. With a runner on 1st, 2 outs, and a 1-0 game with the home team batting in the B6 it's a 1.6 leverage index which is *high*. Now, if nobody was on? Low leverage. Or if the Orioles were up by 3, low leverage. But by all metrics, it's a high leverage situation especially with a guy who has pitched poorly with his new club *and* who has control/command issues. Stick with the guy who was pitching well (Smith) or go to a different arm that is somewhat trustworthy. 

[Alasdaire]

50 minutes ago, Ceciltrav said:

The price for Soto really was Seth Johnson?  That is the part that has me scratching my head?  I thought Johnson was one of our better pitching prospects?

Johnson was on the 40-man roster. If the O's didn't see a place for him in Baltimore in the near future, then he was just in the way.

[LookitsPuck]

43 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The problem was he had seen the same pitch in the same location twice in a row before that. You can't give a professional hitter that many chances to get you timed up.

Also Varsho hits lefties better than righties. I agree 100% that the sequencing stunk, but also let's be frank here - when your command is poor and you keep throwing the same pitch over/over, it gets walloped. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

That's incorrect, though. It went: Horwitz (L), Kirk (R), Varsho (L), Clement (R). 

The only decent hitter among those against righties is Horwitz. And you could just put him on and take your chances against:

• Kirk - 647 OPS on the year, 676 OPS righties
• Varsho - 683 OPS on the year, 673 OPS righties and actually hits them worse than lefties (has a 189 batting average against righties)
• Clement - 710 OPS on the year, 685 against righties 

Call me crazy, but the only hitters you're really scared of are Vladdy and maybe Horwitz situationally. 

I think Hyde got way too cute, and it's indefensible to go to Soto who has been abysmal with the O's, so you can't trust him in a 1-0 game. 

And folks saying this wasn't a high leverage situation are completely incorrect. With a runner on 1st, 2 outs, and a 1-0 game with the home team batting in the B6 it's a 1.6 leverage index which is *high*. Now, if nobody was on? Low leverage. Or if the Orioles were up by 3, low leverage. But by all metrics, it's a high leverage situation especially with a guy who has pitched poorly with his new club *and* who has control/command issues. Stick with the guy who was pitching well (Smith) or go to a different arm that is somewhat trustworthy. 

Hyde does tends to go a little too platoon heavy and does not always fully consider the pitcher involved and how he's been pitching of late. 

Saying that, Soto was coming off a good outing and his job is to get batters out. He failed miserably in doing so. I think the move is still defensible because Burch has allowed lefties to hit  .349/.388/.476/.864 off him this year. If he was kept out there and a lefty hit a bomb off him, everyone would be asking why not Soto?

Sometimes a guy just ha a bad night. Unfortunately for Soto, he's had two in his three games with the Orioles.

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, Alasdaire said:

Johnson was on the 40-man roster. If the O's didn't see a place for him in Baltimore in the near future, then he was just in the way.

At some point we need to stop with this reasoning. Seth Johnson was one of our better prospects coming back from injury. Yeah, he's on the 40 man. But you know who is also on the 40 man clogging up a spot? Colin Selby, Nick Vespi, even Dillon Tate. Are any of those 3 better than Seth Johnson's upside? What about Chace's upside? I don't think so. 

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Hyde does tends to go a little too platoon heavy and does not always fully consider the pitcher involved and how he's been pitching of late. 

Saying that, Soto was coming off a good outing and his job is to get batters out. He failed miserably in doing so. I think the move is still defensible because Burch has allowed lefties to hit  .349/.388/.476/.864 off him this year. If he was kept out there and a lefty hit a bomb off him, everyone would be asking why not Soto?

Sometimes a guy just ha a bad night. Unfortunately for Soto, he's had two in his three games with the Orioles.

I don't know if I categorize Soto's previous outing as good. He went 2/3 of an inning and allowed 2 hits. Single, groundout, single, popout to the bottom of the lineup with the O's up by 3. That's about as low leverage as they get, and I just don't understand the trust with him. It seems automatic by Hyde just because he's a vet. 

Also Horwitz isn't a power hitter. If he slaps a single, who cares? Just put him on or go to a different arm. Soto doesn't deserve any trust. Hell, even before Soto came to the O's, in his last 7 appearances with the Phillies: 7.20  ERA, 891 OPS, 8 baserunners in 5 IP. He's a mess. Will he get better? He has that upside, but man...I just can't with the Soto acquisition. I really don't like Keegan Akin, but I'd rather ride with him.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

I don't know if I categorize Soto's previous outing as good. He went 2/3 of an inning and allowed 2 hits. Single, groundout, single, popout to the bottom of the lineup with the O's up by 3. That's about as low leverage as they get, and I just don't understand the trust with him. It seems automatic by Hyde just because he's a vet. 

Also Horwitz isn't a power hitter. If he slaps a single, who cares? Just put him on or go to a different arm. Soto doesn't deserve any trust. Hell, even before Soto came to the O's, in his last 7 appearances with the Phillies: 7.20  ERA, 891 OPS, 8 baserunners in 5 IP. He's a mess. Will he get better? He has that upside, but man...I just can't with the Soto acquisition. I really don't like Keegan Akin, but I'd rather ride with him.

I don't necessarily disagree that Soto deserves any trust. Would I had rather had Akin in that spot, absolutely. I'm just saying between Burch and Soto, it's Soto's job to get that out. 

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

At some point we need to stop with this reasoning. Seth Johnson was one of our better prospects coming back from injury. Yeah, he's on the 40 man. But you know who is also on the 40 man clogging up a spot? Colin Selby, Nick Vespi, even Dillon Tate. Are any of those 3 better than Seth Johnson's upside? What about Chace's upside? I don't think so. 

I doubt the front office thought that Seth Johnson had a place on the major league team. If they had, they wouldn't have moved him. Their track record shows they pretty much only move players who are blocked and/or don't fill a need. Certainly if they had thought he was one of the better pitching prospects, they wouldn't have moved him in addition to another prospect and in return for an unreliable reliever. The return for one of their top hitting prospects, Ortiz, plus another prospect, Hall, was Corbin Burnes. So even if you Johnson is one of the better pitching prospects on paper, I don't think that's how the organization that has monitored his progress daily for years thought of him.

I think some prospects exist to the front office almost entirely as trade assets. Stowers, Norby, and Johnson were three such prospects. They weren't viewed as having a long-term future with the club whether because they were blocked, didn't fill a need, or simply weren't considered good enough. In which case the only question is how much you can get in return for them. Could the return have been better? Maybe. But these guys were always going to be moved.

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, Alasdaire said:

I doubt the front office thought that Seth Johnson had a place on the major league team. If they had, they wouldn't have moved him. Their track record shows they pretty much only move players who are blocked and/or don't fill a need. Certainly if they had thought he was one of the better pitching prospects, they wouldn't have moved him in addition to another prospect and in return for an unreliable reliever. The return for one of their top hitting prospects, Ortiz, plus another prospect, Hall, was Corbin Burnes. So even if you Johnson is one of the better pitching prospects on paper, I don't think that's how the organization that has monitored his progress daily for years thought of him.

I think some prospects exist to the front office almost entirely as trade assets. Stowers, Norby, and Johnson were three such prospects. They weren't viewed as having a long-term future with the club whether because they were blocked, didn't fill a need, or simply weren't considered good enough. In which case the only question is how much you can get in return for them. Could the return have been better? Maybe. But these guys were always going to be moved.

I don't disagree that some prospects are viewed strictly as trade assets. I just don't agree with trading them for fodder. 

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

I don't disagree that some prospects are viewed strictly as trade assets. I just don't agree with trading them for fodder. 

I get that. One of the critiques I've heard about Elias, that can also generally explain why it's difficult for teams to transition from long rebuilds to sustained contention, is that it's difficult to ever "turn off" the talent-acquisition switch. During a rebuild, you're looking to acquire traits and talent that could one day potentially mature into high-end production. You're willing to take the high risk/high reward gamble because you have nothing to lose. This is in contrast to an approach where you fill a need with a more reliable profile even if you know it's not going to result in a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

You can see evidence of Elias still being in talent-acquisition mode by the types of relievers the front office has acquired over the past few years at the deadline. Cano, Fujimani, Soto, and Dominguez are all guys with elite stuff but variable results.

I wouldn't support Elias moving more valuable assets than the ones he has. But I do think it's worth questioning whether he should be shooting for the stars rather than just plugging holes.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

59 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Who goes for him though? 

Akin had to go because of numbers and because he had an option. So who goes if he comes up and Soto goes to "mop up". 

I think the Orioles are going to live with Soto right now, but he will probably have to do some mop up work for a bit. They certainly aren't going to give up on him after two bad appearances. 

Presumably Grayson is going on the IL, Suarez is back in the rotation and Akin will be called up to replace Grayson.

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Presumably Grayson is going on the IL, Suarez is back in the rotation and Akin will be called up to replace Grayson.

Yeah, I said the same thing in the Grayson thread. I honestly wasn't thinking about Grayson when I quoted that post. But I agree, that's the most likely scenario.