Patrick Reilly 2024 (Acquired for Billy Cook)

[OsFanInOhio]

29 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Bowie debut today: 3.1 IP 2H 2BB 5Ks 0 runs.

Pretty good first impression in a new organization at a new level…I’ll take it! 

[Tony-OH]

He looked good overall, though the Bowie from the pressbox camera view a bit from the 1st base side is not a great camera angle to judge pitching. He got a lot of swing and miss on his fastball which according to the announcer sat 92-95 MPH. His command is not great and missed up a decent amount. Didn't really see many changeups but again, hard to tell in that look. 

He has definitely bullpen vibes based on his delivery which has a bit of effort from a high overhand delivery. But Bradish was similar until he was reworked so too early to say that for sure.

[Frobby]

Reilly has thrown more innings this year (91.1) than anyone in our MiL system other than Povich and McDermott (I’m including their major league innings for this purpose).   Among our AA and high A pitchers, nobody has thrown more than 84.1 innings (Pham).

[Rbiggs2525]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

He looked good overall, though the Bowie from the pressbox camera view a bit from the 1st base side is not a great camera angle to judge pitching. He got a lot of swing and miss on his fastball which according to the announcer sat 92-95 MPH. His command is not great and missed up a decent amount. Didn't really see many changeups but again, hard to tell in that look. 

He has definitely bullpen vibes based on his delivery which has a bit of effort from a high overhand delivery. But Bradish was similar until he was reworked so too early to say that for sure.

Watching the series this weekend I noticed Cleveland isn’t afraid to make a decision on turning a pitcher into a BP arm. Cade Smith, Herrin, Clase are all young guys with BP backgrounds even in minor leagues. I would like to see the Orioles implement this strategy more. It takes time to learn max effort and high leverage situations. 

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Watching the series this weekend I noticed Cleveland isn’t afraid to make a decision on turning a pitcher into a BP arm. Cade Smith, Herrin, Clase are all young guys with BP backgrounds even in minor leagues. I would like to see the Orioles implement this strategy more. It takes time to learn max effort and high leverage situations. 

It does, and I've been critical of this as well. I also think it's a learned skill to warm up fast and pitching with less days rest or sometimes on back to back games. No one knows this until you put a guy in a relief role. 

I've always understood developing good arms as a starter at first in order to get them more experienced with their pitches and command, but at some point, a call has to be made and they should develop them for the role that they seem better fit for.

I see too many Orioles minor league pitchers starting and being inconsistent because they really only have two good pitches yet are trying to throw 4 and sometimes 5 different pitches. Then they wonder why guys like Povich and McDermott have command issues.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Watching the series this weekend I noticed Cleveland isn’t afraid to make a decision on turning a pitcher into a BP arm. Cade Smith, Herrin, Clase are all young guys with BP backgrounds even in minor leagues. I would like to see the Orioles implement this strategy more. It takes time to learn max effort and high leverage situations. 

We can't put the whole system in the pen haha.  I think we just have a "throw them against the wall and see who sticks" mentality with SP.  We only need 5 SP for the mlb rotation.  We just have to hit on the next Bradish every couple of years.  

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We can't put the whole system in the pen haha.  I think we just have a "throw them against the wall and see who sticks" mentality with SP.  We only need 5 SP for the mlb rotation.  We just have to hit on the next Bradish every couple of years.  

With free agency and the cost of SP “every couple of years” doesn’t seem often enough. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, George Zuverink said:

With free agency and the cost of SP “every couple of years” doesn’t seem often enough. 

You probably need to produce a serviceable major league starter annually.  You can’t expect they’ll all turn out like Bradish though.   

Just to get a sense of this, I looked at all pitchers who debuted during the period 2010-14 in MLB.   Here’s how many pitchers were produced each year meeting various career starts thresholds:

10+ starts: 40 pitchers produced per season.

30+: 27

50+: 19

100+: 13

150+:11

200+: 7

These overlap, i.e., pitchers with 200 starts are also included in the number with 10+.

Career starts by pitchers who’ve started a game for the O’s this year: 

Eflin 167

Burnes 129

Irvin 91

Kremer 85

Rogers 81

Means 73

Bradish 61

Wells 46

Rodriguez 43

Suarez 26

Povich 8

McDermott 1

Akin also has started 25 games in his career.

[George Zuverink]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

You probably need to produce a serviceable major league starter annually.  You can’t expect they’ll all turn out like Bradish though.   

Just to get a sense of this, I looked at all pitchers who debuted during the period 2010-14 in MLB.   Here’s how many pitchers were produced each year meeting various career starts thresholds:

10+ starts: 40 pitchers produced per season.

30+: 27

50+: 19

100+: 13

150+:11

200+: 7

These overlap, i.e., pitchers with 200 starts are also included in the number with 10+.

Career starts by pitchers who’ve started a game for the O’s this year: 

Eflin 167

Burnes 129

Irvin 91

Kremer 85

Rogers 81

Means 73

Bradish 61

Wells 46

Rodriguez 43

Suarez 26

Povich 8

McDermott 1

Akin also has started 25 games in his career.

I came to the same conclusion your numbers support with some basic reasoning. A team with five healthy, serviceable starters seems likely to loose at least one every year. 

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

You probably need to produce a serviceable major league starter annually.  You can’t expect they’ll all turn out like Bradish though.   

Just to get a sense of this, I looked at all pitchers who debuted during the period 2010-14 in MLB.   Here’s how many pitchers were produced each year meeting various career starts thresholds:

10+ starts: 40 pitchers produced per season.

30+: 27

50+: 19

100+: 13

150+:11

200+: 7

These overlap, i.e., pitchers with 200 starts are also included in the number with 10+.

Career starts by pitchers who’ve started a game for the O’s this year: 

Eflin 167

Burnes 129

Irvin 91

Kremer 85

Rogers 81

Means 73

Bradish 61

Wells 46

Rodriguez 43

Suarez 26

Povich 8

McDermott 1

Akin also has started 25 games in his career.

Unfortunately this system has not drafted and developed not one pitcher yet. Forget starter, they haven't produced a middle reliever yet. 

Now if people want to give them credit for developing Bradish, ok, he did become a different guy after coming into the system. So is it drafting? Are they not targeting the right arms? Are they waiting too long in the draft?

I don't really know, but I agree with you that the system has to find ways to draft and develop starting pitching talent because while Reilly was a good get for Billy Cook (who is defensively challenged and doesn't have the pop to make up for it), he's got pretty strong reliever vibes and and 92-95 is nice, but it's not impact reliever nice.

 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Unfortunately this system has not drafted and developed not one pitcher yet. Forget starter, they haven't produced a middle reliever yet. 

Now if people want to give them credit for developing Bradish, ok, he did become a different guy after coming into the system. So is it drafting? Are they not targeting the right arms? Are they waiting too long in the draft?

I don't really know, but I agree with you that the system has to find ways to draft and develop starting pitching talent because while Reilly was a good get for Billy Cook (who is defensively challenged and doesn't have the pop to make up for it), he's got pretty strong reliever vibes and and 92-95 is nice, but it's not impact reliever nice.

 

The way I see it, you don’t necessarily have to draft them so long as you acquire and develop them.  But if you’re going to acquire them by trade, you’ll have to produce a ton of hitting prospects to use as trade bait.  That’s worked okay up to now, but will get harder over time.   If you look at the list of this year’s starters, Kremer, Bradish, Povich and McDermott all were acquired in “sell trades” that were not really doing now that we are contenders.   One year of Burnes cost two matured prospects and a high pick, 1+ year of Eflin cost 3 prospects, 2+ years of Rogers cost two fully matured prospects.   That’s a lot of prospect capital.  

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The way I see it, you don’t necessarily have to draft them so long as you acquire and develop them.  But if you’re going to acquire them by trade, you’ll have to produce a ton of hitting prospects to use as trade bait.  That’s worked okay up to now, but will get harder over time.   If you look at the list of this year’s starters, Kremer, Bradish, Povich and McDermott all were acquired in “sell trades” that were not really doing now that we are contenders.   One year of Burnes cost two matured prospects and a high pick, 1+ year of Eflin cost 3 prospects, 2+ years of Rogers cost two fully matured prospects.   That’s a lot of prospect capital.  

Absolutely, and it's not sustainable. After Basallo, I'm not sure who the impact hitting prospects are at this point. Perhaps someone from the new draft will be that guy or perhaps an international guy will pop, but I'll be honest, I'm struggling to find the guys to get excited about after Basallo (excluding this draft class). 

So that means what for the future? I really think Elias has to start drafting pitching higher in the draft and go for some high risk/reward high school arms.

Rajsich was not afraid to do that and he ended up Grayson and DL Hall. Elias has been swinging and missing on a lot of college bats the last few drafts, or at least they have not really jumped out us like a Westburg, Cowser or Kjerstad. Now Horvath helped get Eflin, but Haskin, Wagner, Beavers, Fabian and even Bradfield to a lesser extent have not exactly wowed.

 I look at this team and see a lot of Elias drafted players, but I see a lot of top 1st or early 2nd round talent. If he's going to keep using his 2nd-5th round selections mainly on college bats, he's going to need to hit on them more because he's going to be lower in those rounds.

[Rbiggs2525]

19 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We can't put the whole system in the pen haha.  I think we just have a "throw them against the wall and see who sticks" mentality with SP.  We only need 5 SP for the mlb rotation.  We just have to hit on the next Bradish every couple of years.  

Want to be clear this isn’t directed at Reilly. This is more of the strategy of Jack of all trades, master of none. I just look at Cade Smith and say to myself, the Orioles would still have him trying to be a starting pitcher. Cleveland is not blinded by stuff and develops both starting pitchers and relievers. 
 

Elias ability to develop pitchers from the scrap heap is a gift and a curse. When I see someone like McDermott I say to myself, the guy is 25 years old and has been pitching for a very long time. If he only has 2 MLB ready pitches by now  then it’s time to refine them and become a master of them.  Mariano Rivera made a HOF career with one great pitch. Hoffman fastball change up. Kimbrel two pitches. Kenley Jansen is getting guys out with 94 mph cutter with location. 

[Tony-OH]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:13 AM, Rbiggs2525 said:

Want to be clear this isn’t directed at Reilly. This is more of the strategy of Jack of all trades, master of none. I just look at Cade Smith and say to myself, the Orioles would still have him trying to be a starting pitcher. Cleveland is not blinded by stuff and develops both starting pitchers and relievers. 
 

Elias ability to develop pitchers from the scrap heap is a gift and a curse. When I see someone like McDermott I say to myself, the guy is 25 years old and has been pitching for a very long time. If he only has 2 MLB ready pitches by now  then it’s time to refine them and become a master of them.  Mariano Rivera made a HOF career with one great pitch. Hoffman fastball change up. Kimbrel two pitches. Kenley Jansen is getting guys out with 94 mph cutter with location. 

Well written and expresses my thoughts as well. 

The Orioles need to do a better job of identifying guys that are most likely heading to be relievers if they focus on two pitches vs trying to take guys and continue to use them as starters while using 4 or 5 pitches, 3 of which are not good. 

I really think once a guy hits AAA he should be developed in the role that they think he will be used at in the majors. 

[bluedog]

On 8/6/2024 at 10:13 AM, Rbiggs2525 said:

Want to be clear this isn’t directed at Reilly. This is more of the strategy of Jack of all trades, master of none. I just look at Cade Smith and say to myself, the Orioles would still have him trying to be a starting pitcher. Cleveland is not blinded by stuff and develops both starting pitchers and relievers. 
 

Elias ability to develop pitchers from the scrap heap is a gift and a curse. When I see someone like McDermott I say to myself, the guy is 25 years old and has been pitching for a very long time. If he only has 2 MLB ready pitches by now  then it’s time to refine them and become a master of them.  Mariano Rivera made a HOF career with one great pitch. Hoffman fastball change up. Kimbrel two pitches. Kenley Jansen is getting guys out with 94 mph cutter with location. 

Also, look at how much value relievers have in trade now. If the O's took average starting prospects and turned them into good / great relievers, you could trade from surplus to restock some of the farm depth. Like Philly did.

Edited August 7 by bluedog