Trevor Rogers 2024

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

Comment from Steve Adams of MLBTraderumors when asked which Marlins trade he liked the best. Very interesting comment:

 

“On Rogers, I thought either Norby or Stowers alone would be a fair return for Rogers, whose fastball is way down from his 2021 Rookie of the Year runner-up finish. He’s dealt with several injuries in recent years, his slider doesn’t look nearly as effective, and his command has slipped as well. He gives up more contact in the zone than he used to, doesn’t get as many chases as he did during that rookie season, and just generally looks more like a fifth starter than the impact arm he was in ’21.

Norby has a real chance to be an everyday second baseman in Miami. I think Stowers is going to be a strikeout-prone, corner platoon guy, but there’s value in that even if it’s more of a role player skill set. I could see him hitting 20ish homers for the Fish and playing decent right field defense in a platoon role that limits him to around 500 plate appearances in a season. That might not be someone you want to take all the way through three years of arbitration, but he can certainly help in the short term.“

In other words, Rogers is not even as good as Kremer, and we overpaid for him.

He thinks Norby for Rogers is fair.  Stowers is a distant secondary piece.   It’s going to be hard for Norby to win their 2B job when they’ve decided to convert him to 3B.   
 

The fact that Steve Adams attaches equal value to Norby and Stowers is pretty surprising to me and I think he’s way off base.

Edited August 2 by RZNJ

[Allan Bryant]

4 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

What the White Sox got in return was a joke, tbh. What a weird trade deadline for them. 

Agreed with your White Sox assessment 

[eddie83]

 

[glenn__davis]

The Guardians rocking pretty much our entire staff in a weird way made me feel a bit better about Rogers.

He got to the clubhouse like 3 hours before facing a hot offense on the team with the best record in the league and an even better home record.

Not saying he's going to be great by any means but that was a pretty stiff test on Thursday.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Rogers made his first start immediately after arriving with the club, so no time to try to make any changes. It will be interesting to see if there are any notable changes tonight.

I thought Rogers was more of a 5th starter this season, small adjustments now mostly with pitch mix, make bigger mechanical improvements this off-season project. With Grayson’s injury potentially putting Rogers in line for a playoff start this year, they’re going to have to do as much as they can immediately. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Rogers maybe being the O's #3 starter is scary.  Right now I would probably have Kremer #3 and Rogers #4.  It's looking like a fight to get in the playoffs.  I hope Rogers can do better tonight.  It would suck to lose a series to the Blue Jays with the Yankees and Red Sox playing well now.

[theobird]

Yes, tonight is a big one for Roger’s. He doesn’t have to be lights out, if he can go 5-6 innings and give up 3 runs or less that would be a good place to start. But the way we are swinging the bats, that might add up to a loss.

[The Goob]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Rogers made his first start immediately after arriving with the club, so no time to try to make any changes. It will be interesting to see if there are any notable changes tonight.

I thought Rogers was more of a 5th starter this season, small adjustments now mostly with pitch mix, make bigger mechanical improvements this off-season project. With Grayson’s injury potentially putting Rogers in line for a playoff start this year, they’re going to have to do as much as they can immediately. 

This is the reason I thought the trade was worth it.  Going from Miami which is a mess to a strong development organization could be huge for Rogers.  I trust that the Orioles saw something in him that they felt they could fix and get him back closer to the pitcher he was in 2021.  If that happens you have a #3 starter at worst and maybe even a #2 for the cost of two player who had no future role here. 

Edited August 7 by The Goob

[Sports Guy]

Just now, The Goob said:

This is the reason I thought the trade was worth it.  Going from Miami which is a mess to a strong development organization could be huge for Rogers.  I trust that the Orioles say something in him that they felt they could fix and get him back closer to the pitcher he was in 2021.  If that happens you have a #3 starter at worst and maybe even a #2 for the cost of two player who had no future role here. 

Exactly. The Os didn’t just trade for Rogers because he’s cheap and under team control for a while.

They obviously like him and like him for a reason.

[LookitsPuck]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly. The Os didn’t just trade for Rogers because he’s cheap and under team control for a while.

They obviously like him and like him for a reason.

It’ll be interesting because none of his pitches have positive run value. So I’m extremely curious in what they see in an oft injured pitcher with diminished velocity, high WHIP and iffy pitch value. I’ve been proven wrong quite a bit before. 

[The Goob]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly. The Os didn’t just trade for Rogers because he’s cheap and under team control for a while.

They obviously like him and like him for a reason.

I looked at the deadline as multi faceted and very productive for the Orioles.  I thought Eflin was the most sure thing with a reasonable price.  He ended up being the best starter traded at the deadline and we got it done before the costs seem to rise.  I thought the Dominguez was more about getting rid of Hays.  Soto and Jimenez were flier hoping to catch lightning in the bottle.  Slater was to fill a gap with a RHH to backfill Hays with the bonus that he can play center.  Rogers was the trade of most interest to me because it represents the trade with the widest possible outcomes.  I trust their process that they saw something that they think they can fix and get more out of him then he has shown for the last 12 months.

The difference makers were Eflin, Rodger and the promotion of Holliday the rest was just work around the edge.  I wish they had added a high leverage reliever but maybe Domiguez can become that or they hoped Saurez in the pen would be that.   

[jabba72]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It’ll be interesting because none of his pitches have positive run value. So I’m extremely curious in what they see in an oft injured pitcher with diminished velocity, high WHIP and iffy pitch value. I’ve been proven wrong quite a bit before. 

Yeah, Rogers doesn't have the velo he did back in '21. And the O's pitching lab hasn't seemed to helped Irvin. Still, Rogers is now our #4 going forward, we'll need him to come up big. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

20 minutes ago, The Goob said:

This is the reason I thought the trade was worth it.  Going from Miami which is a mess to a strong development organization could be huge for Rogers.  I trust that the Orioles saw something in him that they felt they could fix and get him back closer to the pitcher he was in 2021.  If that happens you have a #3 starter at worst and maybe even a #2 for the cost of two player who had no future role here. 

Miami isn’t a mess when it comes to developing pitchers, though. But I agree the Orioles don’t do this trade unless they think there is something more to unlock with Rogers. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Miami isn’t a mess when it comes to developing pitchers, though. But I agree the Orioles don’t do this trade unless they think there is something more to unlock with Rogers. 

I’m not sure that’s true, at least anymore.

Between all the injuries and the dramatic drop in statcast numbers, especially by the starters, I wonder what’s going on there.

They have the same pitching coach but I wonder if they have changed philosophies and it’s hurting these guys.  
 

We have already heard Rogers say he has gotten more feedback in his short time here than he has in his whole career.

[CaptainRedbeard]

8 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It’ll be interesting because none of his pitches have positive run value. So I’m extremely curious in what they see in an oft injured pitcher with diminished velocity, high WHIP and iffy pitch value. I’ve been proven wrong quite a bit before. 

Safe to assume they think there are some mechanical adjustments he can make to find some of that lost velocity.  Even if the velo doesn’t rebound, the fastball has good spin and he has good extension so there is potential to improve the shape of that offering with mechanical adjustments.

His slider is also a mess in the pitch models, it’s a well below average pitch. Maybe some low hanging fruit to improve there.

He has a good changeup, but its velo did not decrease with his fastball velo, so it’s now a really small delta with the fastball. Maybe something to play with there. 

Pitch mix wise, he’s throwing a lot of sinkers and a lefty pitcher throwing sinkers to righties is generally not a good idea. You can get ground balls that way but a lot of hard contact and that’s a very low whiff pitch.