John Meoli’s insights on the Os

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

So it’s primarily the pitching.  No kidding!   And mind you, 5.14 is the earned run average, not the average runs allowed.  The RA/9 is 5.49.   

9 of our top 15 MLB pitching options are on the IL currently.  The pitching is what it is.  It ain't changing.  The hitting needs to get back to hitting.  

What would the offense look like with 9/15 top hitters hurt?

[Safelykept]

1 hour ago, Too Tall said:

Example - the other day - bases loaded no outs - down one run - eighth  inning - O'Hearn up - our best pinch hitter - takes a called strike two on a ball outside the zone - strikes out on a pitch he would generally not swing at. We end up plating one run to tie - that's all that the rest - heart of the order - could muster. Our offense all too often in the last 6 weeks. Add in the pitching woes and I say it's amazing we are where we are.

Not to mention that was the inning they benefited from another bad call by the Umpire. Benefited 2 baserunners and 2outs. the run was basically a gift, so in essence the only offense was Slater. Same thing monday Urias and Mounty 4 for 7 ,all 3 runs, everybody else 2 hits. 2 games that they were winning all the time, both losses

[BRobinsonfan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they should go with the classic.

This needs to be hung up in the dugout for every game!  

[SouthernBird]

Pitching wins championships and we don't have any left.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, eddie83 said:

 

In other words, they lack "clutchiness" this year. Whether that's just because it's a down year for the hitters, or because they've put too much pressure on themselves to be "they guy" on a team with expectations coming into this season, we don't know. But what we do know is that in every way you can judge the team it's poor in clutch situations. 

[eddie83]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

In other words, they lack "clutchiness" this year. Whether that's just because it's a down year for the hitters, or because they've put too much pressure on themselves to be "they guy" on a tram with expectations coming into this season, we don't know. But what we do know is that in every way you can judge the team it's poor in clutch situations. 

I wonder about the youth of the team. Not that they weren’t young last year.  Maybe higher expectations? Who knows. 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

That is pretty interesting.  I think there’s a couple of important things to point out.  First, high leverage at bats are only 15% of all at bats, so it’s not like those low and medium leverage at bats are insignificant.  Second, the team’s sOPS+ in high leverage is 101, meaning the team’s performance in high leverage is a smidge above average compared to the rest of the league.   So it’s not that the O’s are bad in high leverage situations, there just not as above average in those situations as they are in the lower leverage spots.  

The fact that they’re worse this year than last year could be (1) random variation, (2) changes in personnel, or (3) a combination of both.  I’d opt for (3).   Our worst high leverage hitter is Cowser (.506 OPS), who barely played last year, but our second worst is Mullins (.526), who was nails last year (.946).  Our best high leverage hitter last year was Hicks (1.094), and the much-maligned Frazier was quite good (.829) - they’re both gone.  But guys like Santander (.955/.631) and Mountcastle (.931/.679) have dropped a long way.  So, it’s a mix of things, that could continue the way they’ve been going, or change at any time TBH.
 

I mentioned to Tony about the youth. I have heard Hyde multiple times talk about the team being young. 

[Just Regular]

Sports - creating narratives from that weighted random number generator since forever.

Decision Sciences at its core is just trying to work the macro side of those 2023 league average 6137 plate appearances per season.

Get Corbin Burnes to the Game 1 hill, put Adley, Mayo, Holliday, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad and the Ryan-Basallo transition character in the lineup, and then do like Billy Beane during the game.    Watching it might make you subjective.

In 6-10 weeks, a recent RA/game near 6 will barely be remembered, even if the club's last postseason single game win stays stuck before the Ubaldo game.

[Ohfan67]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

In other words, they lack "clutchiness" this year. Whether that's just because it's a down year for the hitters, or because they've put too much pressure on themselves to be "they guy" on a tram with expectations coming into this season, we don't know. But what we do know is that in every way you can judge the team it's poor in clutch situations. 

Not quite. As Frobby noted, they are slightly, just a tad bit, better than average in clutch situations compared to other teams. It's not as bleak as the posted stats suggest. In a pretty high percentage of clutch situations, hitters are facing a team's closer or another excellent relief pitcher. 

 

edit: It's not really that they are unclutchy relative to other teams this year, but they are unclutchy relative to the way recent Orioles teams have performed. 

Edited August 22 by Ohfan67

[LookitsPuck]

Yeah, it's the bullpen. It's mediocre. They have a ~4ish ERA and that has been higher in August/late July. That translates to them allowing 1-2 runs a game ON TOP of what the starters are allowing (which also were only going 5 IP). 

[Baseball fandom]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

So it’s primarily the pitching.  No kidding!   And mind you, 5.14 is the earned run average, not the average runs allowed.  The RA/9 is 5.49.   

The whole team stinks now hitting and fielding including. 

[Baseball fandom]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

So it’s primarily the pitching.  No kidding!   And mind you, 5.14 is the earned run average, not the average runs allowed.  The RA/9 is 5.49.   

As far as I'm concerned since about mid June the whole team stinks right now including the hitting and fielding. The pitching has a little bit of excuse when you consider the amount of starters they have lost and we already knew they didn't have a good BP but this hitting SMH how bad they can look so many times. 

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Not quite. As Frobby noted, they are slightly, just a tad bit, better than average in clutch situations compared to other teams. It's not as bleak as the posted stats suggest. In a pretty high percentage of clutch situations, hitters are facing a team's closer or another excellent relief pitcher. 

 

edit: It's not really that they are unclutchy relative to other teams this year, but they are unclutchy relative to the way recent Orioles teams have performed. 

I also posted numbers to show that over the last 50 games (when I did the post) they were very unclutch in both the offense and defense. So whether they were unclutch all year is not the issue, as the pressure has built this team so far has wilted. 

Now whether they can come back and change that narrative remains to be seen, but the numbers definitely show a lack of clutchiness since last June.

Yes, part of the high leverage problems are because hitters are facing good relief pitchers, but again, all teams are facing them and the Orioles are still 18th according to the OP and the recent stats I posted were about the same.

[Sports Guy]

I didn’t even know that was a stat.

[Ohfan67]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t even know that was a stat.

good lord