Should Rubenstein relieve Mike Elias of his duties?

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony, why would I be talking about you?  
 

That said, what you showed is that he was pitching like a 3/4 borderline starter..not a #2.  What we traded to obtain a 3/4 starter was perfectly fine.  
 

And again, you don’t know that a better starter could be had for those guys. There is zero evidence of that. 

What I see in the numbers are a guy who was getting lucky and who's peripherals and expected stats suggest he was even luckier. I know you look at the statcast and expected numbers as well, and that chart is atrocious. 

That is not a guy who was going to have success pitching in the AL East or the AL in general.

Also, I never said there was anyone better. I have no idea who was available.

All I know is if I was scouting for the Orioles, there is no way I'd recommend Rogers based on the stuff I saw and his expected stats as well as the trending down of his velocity. Trading two guys who have a chance to be everyday big leaguers for him is not a good value trade, now that I've seen him pitch. 

Now both Norby and Stowers were flawed players who are the kind of guys you move in the right deal, no doubt. Just after looking at all the data and watching him pitch, Rogers was not the guy to pull the trigger on in a pennant run.

[Baseball fandom]

35 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The really smart and successful professional baseball people who actually get a say in what moves the Orioles make seem to be pretty confident that Rogers can be fixed, otherwise they would not have beat out the multiple other teams who were also reported to be bidding on him to complete the deal.

I'm so glad the Orioles beat those teams out. Hopefully he helps the Tides out. When I see it I will believe it. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, LookitsPuck said:

Here’s a litmus test.

If you could undo the Rogers trade now, would you? 

Only if I knew we could get something to help right now.

But if this was the best we could do, I absolutely still make the trade.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

As a full fledged member of the Elias and Orioles orange colored glasses brigade, even you have to admit the trade is not looking good for THIS year, right? 

Like I said when the trade happened, the concept of the trade made sense until I saw Rogers' stuff. I didn't go back to see how he was throwing in his last few starts with the Marlins, but if his stuff and command looked anything like it was with the Orioles whoever did the scouting/analysis should be let go. 

 

I already said the trade didn't help us this year. I just don't think that was the primary reason for the trade.

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

You can agree to disagree...but the Rogers trade really isn't a hill to die on, either.  It's not the trade to judge Elias on.  And if you want to judge Elias and hold that trade above anything/everything else like it's some kind of trump card...well, I think you'd be one of a few doing that.

Most of his trades have been very solid to excellent. This one was bad. It does not mean he should be fired. The thread is ridiculous (I’m sure you agree)

[Baseball fandom]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Well, he certainly hasn’t been great since 2021, but what he has been since then is injured, average or bad. 

I agree. SG keeps going on about it. I hated the trade. What he says will never convince me otherwise. 

[LookitsPuck]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He talked about all the data they were showing him. My guess is they want him to rework some mechanics and scrap a pitch, throw something more, etc…I do think it’s fair to say, why do that in a pennant race?  I don’t have a problem aith someone asking that question.

But I think that’s different than saying the trade was awful.

I also agree with Moose that this is an idiotic sword to die on yet people are doing it.

He meant as an entire judgement of Elias. I’ve been one of his biggest fans. Tony could tell you I’ve been a bit of a homer. 

Hell, look at my initial post in this very thread! GMs miss all the time with trades. I’m simply saying this trade was a massive failure this year, and could very well in future years. But it does remain to be seen, of course. I’m withholding judgement for 25-26. All I care about right now is 2024 when evaluating.

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I already said the trade didn't help us this year. I just don't think that was the primary reason for the trade.

Rogers had five starts in a row with the Marlins where he allowed two ERs or less immediately prior to the trade. 

I'm guessing the FO was partially banking on that positive trend to continue.  But he was immediately dreadful. 

Edited August 30 by ChuckS

[Baseball fandom]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What I see in the numbers are a guy who was getting lucky and who's peripherals and expected stats suggest he was even luckier. I know you look at the statcast and expected numbers as well, and that chart is atrocious. 

That is not a guy who was going to have success pitching in the AL East or the AL in general.

Also, I never said there was anyone better. I have no idea who was available.

All I know is if I was scouting for the Orioles, there is no way I'd recommend Rogers based on the stuff I saw and his expected stats as well as the trending down of his velocity. Trading two guys who have a chance to be everyday big leaguers for him is not a good value trade, now that I've seen him pitch. 

Now both Norby and Stowers were flawed players who are the kind of guys you move in the right deal, no doubt. Just after looking at all the data and watching him pitch, Rogers was not the guy to pull the trigger on in a pennant run.

Bingo. Exactly how I feel. 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, ChuckS said:

Rogers had five starts in a row with the Marlins where he allowed two ERs or less immediately prior to the trade. 

I'm guessing the FO was partially banking on that positive trend to continue.  But he was immediately dreadful. 

No question. But would you agree that the two years of control were also important to the trade?

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But maybe that was never the point of the trade to begin?

Perhaps not. But why not wait until the offseason to try and trade for him then? Why make moves at the trade deadline for a player that may not hep you this year too? In theory that players should still be available this offseason and the team would still have Norby and Stowers for depth for this year's run.

That's why I do think it was for this year and the fact that he was under contract for two more years made it that much better.

The problem Elias has is Peter Bendix out played him at the trade deadline just like Kim Ng did to him when she got Tanner Scott for ash and trash in her system. 

Eflin might end up his best trade deadline acquisition assuming he comes back healthy. Up until then, the Lopez trade was his best deadline trade.

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

No question. But would you agree that the two years of control were also important to the trade?

Yes.  I just don't think the trade was made purely for 2025 and 2026.  They were hoping he would give us a boost. 

He didn't. 

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Yes.  I just don't think the trade was made purely for 2025 and 2026.  They were hoping he would give us a boost. 

He didn't. 

That is fair and I agree.

[ChosenOne21]

Who's better that we can get to run the team?

[LookitsPuck]

15 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Yes.  I just don't think the trade was made purely for 2025 and 2026.  They were hoping he would give us a boost. 

He didn't. 

Yup. I think folks here are missing the forest for the trees when it comes to deadline trades. How many acquisitions made at the trade deadline for contending teams are entirely about the following years? I'd say next to none of them.

Even if we're being generous here and saying that the trade was 80% about 2025-2026 and only 20% about this year, I really, really have to ask:

Why not just get a starting pitcher that has a better profile and a healthier profile than Rogers in the offseason? There's going to be a plethora of them.

If we look at the FA starting pitchers (from: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/2024-25-mlb-free-agents.html)

• Chase Anderson (37)
• Shane Bieber (30)
• Walker Buehler (30)
• Corbin Burnes (30)
• Carlos Carrasco (38)
• Mike Clevinger (34)
• Alex Cobb (37)*
• Gerrit Cole (34)* – can opt out of remaining four years and $144MM, though Yankees can void by adding a $36MM salary for 2029
• Patrick Corbin (35)*
• Zach Davies (32)
• Anthony DeSclafani (35)
• Nathan Eovaldi (35)* – $20MM player option with 156 IP or top-5 Cy Young finish in 2024 (or top-7 finish and All-Star appearance)
• Jack Flaherty (29)*
• Chris Flexen (30)
• Max Fried (31)
• Domingo German (32)
• Kyle Gibson (37) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
• Lucas Giolito (30) – can opt out of remaining one year, $19MM.  If he does not opt out, Red Sox have $14MM club option with fewer than 140 innings pitched, or there’s a mutual option worth $19MM with 140+ IP.  Both options include a $1.5MM buyout
• Marco Gonzales (33) – $15MM club option (no buyout)
• Andrew Heaney (34)
• Kyle Hendricks (35)
• Brad Keller (29)
• Merrill Kelly (36) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
• Clayton Kershaw (37) – $5MM player option (can increase to as much as $15MM based on 2024 appearances)
• Yusei Kikuchi (34)*
• Michael Lorenzen (33)*
• Jordan Lyles (34)
• Lance Lynn (38) – $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
• Sean Manaea (33) – can opt out of remaining one year, $13.5MM
• Nick Martinez (34) – can opt out of remaining one year, $12MM
• Wade Miley (38) – $12MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
• John Means (32)
• Frankie Montas (32)
• Jordan Montgomery (32) – $20MM+ vesting/player option
• Charlie Morton (41)
• James Paxton (35)
• Freddy Peralta (29) – $8MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
• Martin Perez (34)*
• Nick Pivetta (32)
• Jose Quintana (36)
• Robbie Ray (33)* – can opt out of remaining two years and $50MM
• Colin Rea (34) – $5.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
• Max Scherzer (40)*
• Luis Severino (31)
• Drew Smyly (36) – $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout
• Blake Snell (32) – can opt out of remaining one year, $30MM*
• Mike Soroka (27)
• Ross Stripling (35)
• Julio Teheran (34)
• Spencer Turnbull (32)
• Jose Ureña (33)
• Justin Verlander (42)* – $35MM player option if Verlander pitches 140+ IP and does not have a right arm injury affecting his 2025 availability
• Michael Wacha (33) – $16MM player option
• Luke Weaver (31) – $2.5MM club option (no buyout)
• Trevor Williams (33)
• Alex Wood (34)

* denotes ineligible for a qualifying offer

Is anybody here telling me you'd rather Trevor Rogers and being without Norby and Stowers (both you could still trade in the offseason!) than any of the above?

This makes me 100% think that Elias got overly fixated on the SSS and his project pitcher fixation and he really, truly thought Rogers could help the Orioles this year. Because I'm not sniffing Trevor Rogers as a trade target at the deadline or even in the offseason. The guy's profile has risk written all over it.