AM, Penn/Andino and Eaton

[LookitsPuck]

Here are some projections for them both.

Eaton -- 5.00 Bill James, 5.32 CHONE, 5.45 Marcel, 6.10 ZiPS

Waters -- 5.53 CHONE, 4.70 Marcel, 7.00 ZiPS

Do you agree with those projections?

[LookitsPuck]

Roch's article showed he looked into Eaton back then. The Phils releasing him without contacting the Orioles showed that the Orioles were no longer conversing about Eaton with the Phils.

He was not pursuing Eaton. He pursued. Stopped. Then pursued again when Eaton was released.

I cannot believe how much typing has been wasted on 5th starter who would most likely not wind up being worth much of anything.

It's a discussion board.

Either way, just because the Phils released Eaton doesn't mean the Orioles weren't still interested in him. Most likely the Phils wanted too much in return for him, and the Orioles didn't bite (thank goodness). Which says even more that no other teams really wanted him as much as the O's. Most likely at least. So the O's waited for him to be released and were like, "Jackpot!"

[Frobby]

Do you agree with those projections?

They don't even agree with each other, so how can I? FWIW, I think Waters was lucky to escape with a 5.01 ERA last year. Eaton's probably a little better, but that isn't saying much at all. I'd be very surprised if Eaton's ERA was lower than 5.50 over a reasonable number of innings.

[sector7g]

It's a discussion board.

Either way, just because the Phils released Eaton doesn't mean the Orioles weren't still interested in him. Most likely the Phils wanted too much in return for him, and the Orioles didn't bite (thank goodness). Which says even more that no other teams really wanted him as much as the O's. Most likely at least. So the O's waited for him to be released and were like, "Jackpot!"

If the O's were willing to give up anything whatsoever for him then I don't see how he gets cut. I think it's safe to say we weren't.

[TyCobb]

This is the craziest thread ever. I don't even know what the two sides are to the debate....they keep changing.

[ChrisAF79]

This is the craziest thread ever. I don't even know what the two sides are to the debate....they keep changing.

Agreed. It seems like all of this is an argument as to what the word "targeted" implies.

12 pages, essentially about semantics. About our 5th starter. About someone who isn't likely to be here by summer. Good lord.

[crawdad]

It's a discussion board.

Either way, just because the Phils released Eaton doesn't mean the Orioles weren't still interested in him. Most likely the Phils wanted too much in return for him, and the Orioles didn't bite (thank goodness). Which says even more that no other teams really wanted him as much as the O's. Most likely at least. So the O's waited for him to be released and were like, "Jackpot!"

Really? It is? I am shocked?

My point is not that we should discuss this, but that such a line is being drawn over split hairs.

[Sports Guy]

Really? It is? I am shocked?

My point is not that we should discuss this, but that such a line is being drawn over split hairs.

You do know that you have contributed several posts in this thread, right?

[GnatsFan]

This is the craziest thread ever. I don't even know what the two sides are to the debate....they keep changing.

I don't think its about Eaton anymore... seems to have become a pissing match about 8 pages ago and has been running on ego ever since.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here are some projections for them both.

Eaton -- 5.00 Bill James, 5.32 CHONE, 5.45 Marcel, 6.10 ZiPS

Waters -- 5.53 CHONE, 4.70 Marcel, 7.00 ZiPS

Weighted mean PECOTAs:

Eaton 80 innings of a 6.53

Waters 113 innings of a 7.13

And remember, that 4.70 from Marcel is about 50% or 75% regression to the league average. No minor league data is taken into account, and small MLB samples are heavily regressed. Same system that projected a .750ish for Luis Hernandez last year. Simple system by design.

[LookitsPuck]

If the O's were willing to give up anything whatsoever for him then I don't see how he gets cut. I think it's safe to say we weren't.

That's not what I'm saying. The Orioles can still certainly pursue a player and not want to trade for him (or much at all). Just because the Phils released him does not mean that the Orioles weren't pursuing him.

[Maverick2143]

Agreed. It seems like all of this is an argument as to what the word "targeted" implies.

12 pages, essentially about semantics. About our 5th starter. About someone who isn't likely to be here by summer. Good lord.

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Ask OldFan about the definition of the word "caliber". On second thought going through that discussion again might violate the Geneva Convention.

[ChrisAF79]

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Ask OldFan about the definition of the word "caliber". On second thought going through that discussion again might violate the Geneva Convention.

Oh God, please no. Those particular threads still haunt my dreams.

[Guest Sailor Jerry]

I argued at the time that it doesn't hurt to look. This was a low risk/high reward type move, even if the odds of getting that high reward were going to be slim. It appears at this point that's likely the case. As I was continuously told while arguing that Wieters should have started the year here, this team isn't playing for anything this year. If Eaton pitches innings (as in, he's standing on the mound, not that he's necessarily pitching well) that in turn allow the likes of Bergeson, Hernandez, Liz, Tillman, and Arietta to get a bit more minor league seasoning, that's fine. Long term it may be better that way if it ensures better development of those minor league arms.

Now, if Memorial Day comes along and Eaton is still there and still getting his bobbies knocked off every five days while some of the prospects on the farm are doing just the opposite, there may be a problem.

But Eaton at least has a record (as spotty as it is) of seeing some success. It didn't hurt to take a flyer on him just to see if he can have a little more. It's all house money with this guy. He isn't going to be around long though at this rate.

[bej6789]

I think disgusted is a strong word to use. The plan has always been about growing pitching. Given that, Mcphail ain't exactly shopping on Rodeo Drive for pitchers. He's looking for players who could potentially use this situation to lobby for a better contract, while still being able to dump them when the time comes.

There are very few sure things in Baltimore this season, given the load of prospects that will soon wear Oriole colors. However, I think it's safe to say that Adam Eaton won't be on this team come August 1st. The focus is still on developing young pitchers, and Eaton being here doesn't change that. Rest assured, if they're ready -- Eaton's gone.