Was the offense just in a run of bad luck on this road trip?

[Frobby]

Needless to say, our offense hasn’t scored a lot of runs lately.   But how much is bad hitting, and how much is bad luck?  A friend of mine sent me this:

“I compiled the high xBA at bats that turned into outs and low xBA at bats that turned into hits for the Orioles and their competition for the 3 Boston games and 3 Detroit games.

“The results:
High xBA outs (defined as xBA above .300)
Orioles / Opponent
9/15: 6 / 2
9/14: 9 / 3
9/13: 2 / 6
9/11: 7 / 3
9/10: 2 / 2
9/9: 4 / 2
Total: 30 / 18

Low xBA hits (defined as xBA below .250)
Orioles / Opponent
9/15: 0 / 0
9/14: 0 / 0
9/13: 0 / 1
9/11: 3 / 1
9/10: 1 / 2
9/9: 0 / 6
Total: 4 / 10”

To add to the above, in those six games, Orioles’ batters struck out 50 times, while their opponents struck out 61 times.   So, the Orioles made a lot more contact than their opponents, but a lot of their well-hit balls turned into outs, while their opponents were rather fortunate with poorly hit balls turning into hits.   

Obviously, this data isn’t the whole story, and it’s only covering the last road trip, not the last 5 weeks or so that the offense has been struggling.   But it does suggest that bad luck has played a role in our hitting woes over the last week.   

Edited Monday at 11:52 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

Of course. You don’t need data to know this although the data just supports the obvious.

This has been an issue a lot this year, whether it be for individual players or the team.

When you are struggling this bad, bad luck is always involved.  Just as when you are tearing things up, good luck is always involved.

[gtman55]

Honestly, data shmata....

The good old fashion eye test --- their lack of timely hitting and what looks to me to be a team that's pressing and expecting to lose is all you need to know.

[Too Tall]

Interesting but It doesn't make me feel any better. It's like saying hospitalization was because of a fluke accident rather than a serious illness. Still need intensive care.

[birds future is BRIGHT]

They continue to fail the eye test. Hitting with RISP has been horrid. Guys with 4.60 ERAs look like Cy Young against the Os.

[waroriole]

Just a terrible approach to hitting for 3 months. Will be very frustrating when the only change the team makes is to settle on just one hitting coach so they don’t get too many messages. 

[JR Oriole]

I am very admittedly old school, so the xBA, exit velocities, barrels, and all of those other stats make my eyes water. I really only care about actual base hits and actual success rather than predictors of success. The 2014 Royals spent the entire ALCS dinking and dunking us to death, making productive outs, and running all over us. It started with that broken bat bloop Alex Gordon double that somehow cleared the bases and then they spent the rest of that series mosquito biting us to death.  

So in this past week when Rafaela for Boston and Torkelson for Detroit were able to poke run scoring singles to the right side with what had to be really low exit velocities to drive in runs with 2 outs, it made me think.....why can't we do this?  What is so bad about a bloop single, or a bunt with the third baseman a mile back, or hitting balls where they are pitched without trying to square up or hammer every pitch?  

I am sure there is merit to trying to hit the ball really hard all the time.  But it doesn't seem to work that well for us since if we don't homer, we have real trouble scoring runs. Maybe we should just watch Arizona and try to do what they do.  They seem to have no problem scoring runs.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

I am very admittedly old school, so the xBA, exit velocities, barrels, and all of those other stats make my eyes water. I really only care about actual base hits and actual success rather than predictors of success. The 2014 Royals spent the entire ALCS dinking and dunking us to death, making productive outs, and running all over us. It started with that broken bat bloop Alex Gordon double that somehow cleared the bases and then they spent the rest of that series mosquito biting us to death.  

So in this past week when Rafaela for Boston and Torkelson for Detroit were able to poke run scoring singles to the right side with what had to be really low exit velocities to drive in runs with 2 outs, it made me think.....why can't we do this?  What is so bad about a bloop single, or a bunt with the third baseman a mile back, or hitting balls where they are pitched without trying to square up or hammer every pitch?  

I am sure there is merit to trying to hit the ball really hard all the time.  But it doesn't seem to work that well for us since if we don't homer, we have real trouble scoring runs. Maybe we should just watch Arizona and try to do what they do.  They seem to have no problem scoring runs.

If slap hitting were the answer, wouldn't everyone return to approaches from 1905?

[ChosenOne21]

36 minutes ago, gtman55 said:

Honestly, data shmata....

The good old fashion eye test --- their lack of timely hitting and what looks to me to be a team that's pressing and expecting to lose is all you need to know.

So if Gunnar comes up with the bases loaded and two outs, smashes an 100 MPH line drive right at the second baseman who catches it, was that some sort of failing on Gunnar's part? Would you call that a "lack of timely hitting?"

The "data schmata" shows that the Orioles had a lot of well struck balls that turned into outs, much more than their opponents, yet somehow this is a failing on their part?

Look, there's plenty not to like about the Orioles hitting of late, but how does whether or not they're "pressing" or "expecting to lose" have anything to do with batted ball data? If "pressing" is hitting the ball harder than your opponents and striking out less, sign me up for more of it.

[ChosenOne21]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If slap hitting were the answer, wouldn't everyone return to approaches from 1905?

Yeah, you'd think someone would have tried this if there was any reason to think it would lead to more runs.

I kind of want some team to try it for a couple of years and fail miserably so I can point it out every time someone thinks the answer to our troubles is to play baseball like it's 1905.

I'd love to see Wee Willie Keeler try to hit an 87 MPH slider "where they ain't."

Edited Monday at 12:45 by ChosenOne21

[Warehouse]

More statcast metrics on yesterday’s game are now available.  

We had an OPS of .672 and an xOPS of .731 vs.  .664 and .639 respectively for the Tigers. We had a K% of 11.1% and whiff% of 13.1% vs. 37.5% and 34.8% respectively for the Tigers.  We had an avg EV of 91.2 and hard-hit% of 37.9% vs. 82.3 and 23.5% respectively for the Tigers.

Things we did well: make contact, hit the ball hard. Things we did poorly: hit in the clutch, elevate the ball.

It wasn’t a great result overall, but there were signs of underlying improvement.

Edited Monday at 13:22 by Warehouse

[gamiliel]

Do these stats point out our poor defense? If we are hitting the ball hard and the opponent is making plays and we are failing to make plays on softer hit balls, then the issue is defense? Is that possible?

[sevastras]

5 minutes ago, gamiliel said:

Do these stats point out our poor defense? If we are hitting the ball hard and the opponent is making plays and we are failing to make plays on softer hit balls, then the issue is defense? Is that possible?

Separates data that would need to be overlaid to give the complete story. Or just watch every at bat in detail and make notes. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Interesting info, @Frobby. Thanks for sharing.

The team, when healthy, has a much more equal distribution of offensive talent up and down the lineup. The current iteration is a bit top heavy so when Gunnar, Adley and Santander don't produce, whether due to luck or bad execution, the rest of the line up doesn't "pick them up." 

It would be interesting to see data like what you have presented from earlier in the year when they were the best offense in baseball. 

[BRobinsonfan]

3 hours ago, gtman55 said:

Honestly, data shmata....

The good old fashion eye test --- their lack of timely hitting and what looks to me to be a team that's pressing and expecting to lose is all you need to know.

If the above is true, how do you get a team to deliver timely hits, stop pressing, and quite expecting to lose?