12 Questions for the Offseason

[Warehouse]

1. Where on the spectrum should Elias anchor between “let the kids play” vs. “sign proven bats”?

2. How do we get a right-handed bat to come here given Walltimore?

3. How many years do you think we should be willing to commit to a starting pitcher?  Where do you expect Elias to fall?

4. Between vets, rookies, and prospects, who can we trade / should we trade / do we trade for pitching or a bat?

5. What budget will ownership give to Elias? To what extent will he max out on his constraint?

6. What coaching and front-office personnel changes should/will we make? What about infrastructure or changes to org philosophies?

7. Whom, if anyone, should we try to extend, considering their agent and what they will likely demand financially? 

8. For backup catcher, do we re-up McCann or go in a different direction?

9. Does it make sense to sign a blue chip reliever given the spotty track record of those signings (e.g., of 25 relievers signing for > $3MM last year, 2 had WAR of at least 0.5 in both fWAR and bWAR)?

10. Does Elias make any outside-the-box moves  (e.g., convert Akin to SP, sign a FA infielder, move JH to CF, find the next Suarez)?

[Warehouse]

Actually 10 - I fat fingered the post button before I was ready.

[interloper]

I find #8 to be an interesting one. On the one hand, McCann seems well-liked, he brings some toughness and veteran presence, and he actually had his best offensive season since 2020. At 35, you can probably have him for a 1 year deal if you want. And Basallo isn't really that close to coming up and catching just yet. He's a deep 2nd half kind of callup if you need him. And it's not like the free agent backup catcher market is much better than McCann.

On the other hand, I have a sour taste in my mouth from game 1 where he couldn't make contact with men on base. Adley certainly didn't get any better under his wise tutelage. And maybe there are guys out there who surpass McCann defensively and bring a different wrinkle to the clubhouse. So I wouldn't be mad about a change. 

[Warehouse]

On #1: the question is whether all of Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, and Holliday have everyday roles or if are some platooned or held back in Norfolk or traded? If they all play everyday, there’s not really a meaty role to offer to a new bat.

In the various post-mortems, this seems to be one of the biggest points of differences among posters.  Some want no logjams while others want one or more proven MOO professional hitters and don’t want to rely on Holliday or Mayo.

My view is in the middle of the spectrum. I think at least one of Cowser or Mullins needs to sit vs. LHP, so we need a lefty masher capable of playing left field at Camden.  I think we may consider trading Mounty to make room for Mayo.

[interloper]

I've been thinking about #2 a lot and wondering why this didn't come up at Elias' press conference. 

I think the answer if you have to target a RH bat who isn't solely power-focused or chasing HR numbers, but who is otherwise a caliber of lefty-masher better than Mounty.

Or, you force that hitter here via trade.

[Warehouse]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

I've been thinking about #2 a lot and wondering why this didn't come up at Elias' press conference. 

I think the answer if you have to target a RH bat who isn't solely power-focused or chasing HR numbers, but who is otherwise a caliber of lefty-masher better than Mounty.

Or, you force that hitter here via trade.

Yeah, I think Tyler O’Neil would be ideal. Maybe Randall Grichuk or Mark Canha. However, I think Walltimore is a really tough sell unless we pay a large premium.

I think we go the trade route and target Taylor Ward or Lane Thomas, both of whom have better career numbers vs LHP than Mountcastle especially for OBP.

I don’t necessarily think we need a higher caliber lefty-masher than Mounty (who is pretty good in that regard), though maybe someone more OBP oriented. More important is that I think the lefty mashing skill is more critical for the outfield than first base (where we have Mayo) given how the roster is constructed.

[Sanity Check]

37 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Actually 10 - I fat fingered the post button before I was ready.

Technically, you did ask 12 questions.  #'s 3 and 5 had two questions each in them. 

[HowAboutThat]

These are all valid questions, but before we answer them, I think we need to ask whether Elias is willing to trade, silent J, Jackson, and Coby or keep them and suffer through their defense.

I don’t think they should be off-limits.

 

[Sanity Check]

I'd like to add another question.  A serious one.

How do we improve our first inning performance.  We had a lot of 1-2-3 starts to games, unless Gunnar was hitting a home run.  Who is the answer to a high OBP guy (or two) at the top of the lineup?  All we have are guys we "hope" can do it, but hope is not a strategy.  I'd prefer someone that has maybe proven it at the MLB level. 

[LGOrioles]

17 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Yeah, I think Tyler O’Neil would be ideal. Maybe Randall Grichuk or Mark Canha. However, I think Walltimore is a really tough sell unless we pay a large premium.

I think we go the trade route and target Taylor Ward or Lane Thomas, both of whom have better career numbers vs LHP than Mountcastle especially for OBP.

I don’t necessarily think we need a higher caliber lefty-masher than Mounty (who is pretty good in that regard), though maybe someone more OBP oriented. More important is that I think the lefty mashing skill is more critical for the outfield than first base (where we have Mayo) given how the roster is constructed.

Ward is a good option because he’s still playable against RHP’s and is decent defensively. He K’d a lot this year but he doesn’t chase much and his whiff rate is fine.

Not sure if he’s available, but Lars Nootbar would be a great option. He’s LH, but he doesn’t chase, doesn’t whiff, walks a ton, is a decent fielder, and is almost as good against LHP’s as RHP’s. He would be a perfect lead off option to allow Gunnar to hit 3rd. 

[Warehouse]

On #3, I would guess that Elias is very wary about going longer than 3 years for a starting pitcher (maybe four years if pitcher is younger and AAV is favorable).  I think Mike and Sig believe the history of long-term SP deals isn’t favorable and the wrong deal could derail a mid-market team with dead money.  I’m not sure they are wrong (e.g., Patrick Corbin, Strasberg).  

I don’t think ownership cares directly; I would guess they just give Elias an annual baseball ops budget and forecast and he can choose how he manages against that.
 

Not in play

Gerrit Cole

Corbin Burnes

Max Fried

Blake Snell

Jack Flaherty 

 

Possible free agent targets

Yusei Kikuchi

Nathan Eovaldi

Nick Pivetta

Sean Manaea

Luis Severino

Alex Cobb

Max Scherzer

Justin Verlander

Jose Quintana

Frankie Montas

Spencer Turnbull

Andrew Heaney

Matthew Boyd

 

Possible trade targets

Garret Crotchet

Sandy Alcantera

Jesus Luzardo

Eduardo Cabrera

Reid Detmers

Emerson Hancock

Jordan Montgomery

Lance McCullers Jr.

[StottyByNature]

A question precedes #2: when will the left field wall be fixed?  I think I remember Elias saying they probably went too far, which is quite literally true.  No reason they can't fix it quickly.  I had no problem with them moving it back but it is pretty absurd where it is.

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

On #3, I would guess that Elias is very wary about going longer than 3 years for a starting pitcher (maybe four years if pitcher is younger and AAV is favorable).  I think Mike and Sig believe the history of long-term SP deals isn’t favorable and the wrong deal could derail a mid-market team with dead money.  I’m not sure they are wrong (e.g., Patrick Corbin, Strasberg).  

I don’t think ownership cares directly; I would guess they just give Elias an annual baseball ops budget and forecast and he can choose how he manages against that.
 

Not in play

Gerrit Cole

Corbin Burnes

Max Fried

Blake Snell

Jack Flaherty 

 

Possible free agent targets

Yusei Kikuchi

Nathan Eovaldi

Nick Pivetta

Sean Manaea

Luis Severino

Alex Cobb

Max Scherzer

Justin Verlander

Jose Quintana

Frankie Montas

Spencer Turnbull

Andrew Heaney

Matthew Boyd

 

Possible trade targets

Garret Crotchet

Sandy Alcantera

Jesus Luzardo

Eduardo Cabrera

Reid Detmers

Emerson Hancock

Jordan Montgomery

Lance McCullers Jr.

I hope that Elias is not that dogmatic when it comes to FA pitching acquisitions. If you don't draft them and you don't sign them, you are limiting top pitching acquisitions to come only via trade. That strategy is not sustainable. Another Burnes type trade will hurt us bad.

I would to go after any of the first four names on your "not in play" list. If we are letting Burnes walk out the door, most of these names cannot give you anywhere near the production and you will likely be at a disadvantage come game 1 in the playoffs.

Some of the names from your "possible free agents" list should not even be considered IMO. Max Scherzer/Justin Verlander/Alex Cobb are all the end of the line and are very likely to be injured just like they were this season and the season before that. Those guys need to retire.

Again, if you are not going to fish at the deep end the pool, then we will probably need two guys from your "possible free agent targets" list. Maybe Eovaldi +Montas? It's not great but gives us a shot to have a deeper rotation to go along with Eflin, Rodriguez, and Kremer. Then maybe you get Bradish back for the postseason? Maybe?