12 Questions for the Offseason

[Warehouse]

For #5, I think $140-$150MM for major league salaries. I think Elias will want to save ~$10MM for the deadline.  Further, he’ll be cautious about payroll commitments beyond next year to ensure future payroll flexibility so may not max out what he allowed to spend.

That means we can add $30-$50MM in 2025 payroll depending on where in that range the budget falls and what happens with Mountcastle.

[Warehouse]

On #7, you would obviously love to lock up Gunnar and Westburg but that’s going to be extremely difficult with Boras.

I wouldn’t mind extending Eflin.

[btdart20]

42 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

On #3, I would guess that Elias is very wary about going longer than 3 years for a starting pitcher (maybe four years if pitcher is younger and AAV is favorable).  I think Mike and Sig believe the history of long-term SP deals isn’t favorable and the wrong deal could derail a mid-market team with dead money.  I’m not sure they are wrong (e.g., Patrick Corbin, Strasberg).  

I don’t think ownership cares directly; I would guess they just give Elias an annual baseball ops budget and forecast and he can choose how he manages against that.
 

Not in play

Gerrit Cole

Corbin Burnes

Max Fried

Blake Snell

Jack Flaherty 

 

Possible free agent targets

Yusei Kikuchi

Nathan Eovaldi

Nick Pivetta

Sean Manaea

Luis Severino

Alex Cobb

Max Scherzer

Justin Verlander

Jose Quintana

Frankie Montas

Spencer Turnbull

Andrew Heaney

Matthew Boyd

 

Possible trade targets

Garret Crotchet

Sandy Alcantera

Jesus Luzardo

Eduardo Cabrera

Reid Detmers

Emerson Hancock

Jordan Montgomery

Lance McCullers Jr.

Given an aversion to a long-term commitment to SPs, is there an appetite for an ultra-high AAV on a short term contract?

Would a Cole or Snell take a 2 year for $(fill in extravagant amount) deal?  Add some options/hedges as needed.

[Warehouse]

On #10, I think we may experiment with trying Akin as a starter again.  If he were to add a sinker and improve his change-up (a la Chris Sale last year), we may have something.

[btdart20]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Given an aversion to a long-term commitment to SPs, is there an appetite for an ultra-high AAV on a short term contract?

Would a Cole or Snell take a 2 year for $(fill in extravagant amount) deal?  Add some options/hedges as needed.

Also noting an market move away from long-term SP commitments...  2023-24 off-season saw some FA SP difficulties landing their hoped-for deals 

[Say O!]

3 hours ago, Warehouse said:

For #5, I think $140-$150MM for major league salaries. I think Elias will want to save ~$10MM for the deadline.  Further, he’ll be cautious about payroll commitments beyond next year to ensure future payroll flexibility so may not max out what he allowed to spend.

That means we can add $30-$50MM in 2025 payroll depending on where in that range the budget falls and what happens with Mountcastle.

To build off your point, Elias quotes suggest that the intent is for payroll to be higher in 2025 than 2024.  The only way I see that happening is to sign premium SP (or re-sign Burnes).  Simple shortcut math 2025 Eflin offsets 2024 Burnes salary, leaving $25M to fill for 2024 Santander+Kimbrel.  Arb raises and full year Seranthony + Soto may wash to neutral-ish with no Hayes, Means (or at most $5M more in 2025).  Net/net that leaves $20-$25M to stay flat.  So IMO if payroll is to rise year-on-year, it has to be from adding premium pitching (given Santander as QO and leave as FA).

[Warehouse]

2 hours ago, Say O! said:

To build off your point, Elias quotes suggest that the intent is for payroll to be higher in 2025 than 2024.  The only way I see that happening is to sign premium SP (or re-sign Burnes).  Simple shortcut math 2025 Eflin offsets 2024 Burnes salary, leaving $25M to fill for 2024 Santander+Kimbrel.  Arb raises and full year Seranthony + Soto may wash to neutral-ish with no Hayes, Means (or at most $5M more in 2025).  Net/net that leaves $20-$25M to stay flat.  So IMO if payroll is to rise year-on-year, it has to be from adding premium pitching (given Santander as QO and leave as FA).

I get $58.6MM for departing free agents and $48.0MM in comp increases for existing players (I didn’t include Rivera, Bowman, or Smith), which puts the gap at about $10MM to stay flat.

[Say O!]

3 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

I get $58.6MM for departing free agents and $48.0MM in comp increases for existing players (I didn’t include Rivera, Bowman, or Smith), which puts the gap at about $10MM to stay flat.

Can you show your math?  Curious to see the itemization, particularly on the comp increase side.  I was eyeballing using fangraphs roster resource.

Edited 1 hour ago by Say O!

[Warehouse]

Below are the comp increases for the existing players from Fangraphs Roster Resource and MLB Trade Rumors arb forecasts. This is changed slightly from above because I had included Burch Smith but excluded Mounty.  This also factors in that some of these players 2024 salaries were partially paid by other teams.

 

Player	2025 comp increase
Eflin	$13,155,914
Seranthony	$6,514,785
Adley	$5,039,500
O'Hearn	$4,000,000
Soto	$3,960,215
Kremer	$2,743,400
Mounty	$2,463,000
Ced	$2,375,000
Rogers	$2,298,226
Coulombe	$1,700,000
Bradish	$1,345,500
Urias	$1,000,000
Perez	$900,000
Webb	$700,000
Akin	$575,000
Mateo	$500,000
Wells	$137,500
Bautista	0
Total increase	$49,408,040

[Warehouse]

Below is what I have for salary coming off the books:

Player	2024 comp
Eloy	$2,596,774
Craig	$13,000,000
Slater	$611,328
Hays	$4,098,387
Irvin	$1,849,462
Tate	$1,274,194
McKenna	$223,656
McCann	$4,150,000
Santander	$11,700,000
Corbin Burnes	$15,637,500
Tony kemp	$91,398
John Means	$3,325,000
Total	$58,557,699