Hyde: No Idea if Suarez Will Be Back

[DirtyBird]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don't get the idea of not wanting Soto back.

First of all, lets talk about money.  He probably gets around $6M in arb for 2025. 37 relievers made 6M or more in 2024. 56 made 4M or more.  A 1/6 deal for him isnt bad and its not a long term commitment, which is a huge plus.

After his 2 awful outings after he got here, Soto appeared in 20 games. He threw 16.1 innings and had a 1.10 ERA. He gave up 1 homer, walked 4, 11 hits and struck out 20.  For the season, his ERA was a mediocre 4.42 but his FIP was 3.68, his K rate was over 11 and his HR rate was .68. The issue is the walks. He is still only 29 years old, has over 60 appearances each of the last 4 years (ie he's durable) and he has very good seasons in the past. Even last year, when his ERA was 4.62, his xERA was 2.79 and his FIP was 3.59.

With his ability to get Ks and miss bats and the upside he has, taking the chance on him for 1/6 is a risk you would be foolish not to take.

On the fence for Player A < $2M, Definitely want Player B for > $5M

Edited 1 hour ago by DirtyBird

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Haha. Our reliever with the lowest FIP & WHIP and highest K/BB rate.

The problem with him is that he is awful in high leverage situations. His salary will probably only be around 2M, so i likely leans towards keeping him but I don't think hes really that good and I don't find him to be that trustworthy. If he has an option, I like him a lot more.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

On the fence for Player A < $2M, Definitely want Player B for $5M

Yes because Soto has been better for a longer period of time. Im ok with Akin being here but again, the discussion is about roster spots.  He is in my pen as of now.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem with him is that he is awful in high leverage situations. His salary will probably only be around 2M, so i likely leans towards keeping him but I don't think hes really that good and I don't find him to be that trustworthy. If he has an option, I like him a lot more.

Soto's high leverage numbers are worse than Akin's

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

Soto's high leverage numbers are worse than Akin's

Amen.

Do we really want to ride the Soto rollercoaster again in 2025? For $6m? He had a dominant June and a dominant September. All the other months were either awful (April, July, August) or luck (May with a 3.52 ERA but a 1.826 WHIP).

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes because Soto has been better for a longer period of time. Im ok with Akin being here but again, the discussion is about roster spots.  He is in my pen as of now.

Soto has a career WHIP over 1.4 and a K/BB rate of only 2. That is terrible for a reliever.

There is some sort of weird bias for your reasoning of Soto over Akin. Nothing objective backs it up, other than he has more velo.

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

Amen.

Do we really want to ride the Soto rollercoaster again in 2025? For $6m? He had a dominant June and a dominant September. All the other months were either awful (April, July, August) or luck (May with a 3.52 ERA but a 1.826 WHIP).

We are pot committed to him. Elias paid a premium for him because he wanted to address '25 as much as '24 at the deadline. Now we have to sit back and hope he gets "fixed" this offseason.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Soto's high leverage numbers are worse than Akin's

In 2024, yes.  I am not just talking about one season though.

Soto has a career WPA of 1.45. Akin is -2.00.

To put that in perspective, of the relievers who qualified this year, only 2 reliever would have had a worse WPA than Akin..one of them was Kimbrel.  So, in his career, he has been basically what Kimbrel was this year in WPA.

Soto would have been top 40 this year.

Edited 1 hour ago by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

We are pot committed to him. Elias paid a premium for him because he wanted to address '25 as much as '24 at the deadline. Now we have to sit back and hope he gets "fixed" this offseason.

LOL..he didnt pay a premium for him.

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

LOL..he didnt pay a premium for him.

Soto would have been the same price in terms of prospects if he was a rental?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Soto has a career WHIP over 1.4 and a K/BB rate of only 2. That is terrible for a reliever.

There is some sort of weird bias for your reasoning of Soto over Akin. Nothing objective backs it up, other than he has more velo.

There is no weird bias. I am just not looking at one season.  I don't have any strong feelings about Gregory Soto.  I just don't trust Akin. Akin is fine, he will be cheap enough in 2025 but he hasn't shown the high leverage upside that Soto has shown and that is what I am valuing in this discussion. If we can go out and get better relievers than both of them, so be it...im good with that but 1/6 is a cheap contract for a reliever with his upside.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Soto would have been the same price in terms of prospects if he was a rental?

Of course not...all players are worth more if they aren't a rental. But they didn't trade much for him.

[Sports Guy]

Somewhere a cheap reliever has to be left off the roster unless you are ok with the pen as is plus Felix.

The guy i am leaving off as of now is Perez.

 

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course not...all players are worth more if they aren't a rental. But they didn't trade much for him.

Hence, a premium. 

I think they did give up a lot for him, being a career 5 BB/9 inning guy

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Hence, a premium. 

I think they did give up a lot for him, being a career 5 BB/9 inning guy

A premium is what you trade. They didn’t trade a premium package for him.