2023 vs 2024 Player WAR & 2025 Opportunities

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The real improvement of this team will come from within. 
 

The 3-5 players they bring in from outside the org will supplement the roster…maybe put it over the top but the real improvement will come from those already in the org.

I think this is very much open to question.  Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad still have a long ways to go to even approach their expected ceiling; how likely is that to happen early enough to make a difference in 2025?   I don't know either, but it's enough of a risk to take seriously.  Basallo is a decision that can be made in 2026 absent injuries, but Rutchman's decline is a mystery and the absence of 4+ WAR 2025 from him will be sorely missed.  No one believes that the young core isn't going to play a huge role over the next several years, but where is the argument that a significant part of 2025 should still be devoted to player development at the ML level?

The last two seasons have left no doubt that the current O's team is worth investing in and we have a new owner with abundant resources and a stated desire to bring the WS back to Baltimore.  Maybe the time is now to start shifting the narrative from rebuilding first to competing first.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, 24fps said:

I think this is very much open to question.  Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad still have a long ways to go to even approach their expected ceiling; how likely is that to happen early enough to make a difference in 2025?   I don't know either, but it's enough of a risk to take seriously.  Basallo is a decision that can be made in 2026 absent injuries, but Rutchman's decline is a mystery and the absence of 4+ WAR 2025 from him will be sorely missed.  No one believes that the young core isn't going to play a huge role over the next several years, but where is the argument that a significant part of 2025 should still be devoted to player development at the ML level?

The last two seasons have left no doubt that the current O's team is worth investing in and we have a new owner with abundant resources and a stated desire to bring the WS back to Baltimore.  Maybe the time is now to start shifting the narrative from rebuilding first to competing first.

 

No, there is nothing to question there. 100% the improvement has to come from within.  If it doesn’t, nothing they bring in will matter next year. 
 

This organization is going to win based off of how they draft and develop players. If that fails, so will the team.

[24fps]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, there is nothing to question there. 100% the improvement has to come from within.  If it doesn’t, nothing they bring in will matter next year. 
 

This organization is going to win based off of how they draft and develop players. If that fails, so will the team.

When?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, 24fps said:

When?

When what?

[24fps]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

When what?

The when is really two questions.  One is when do the O's stop being handicapped by the risk-averse mindset that's governed their behavior since 2018, and the second is when does a 74 year-old billionaire tire of being told he has to wait a little longer because Jackson Holliday needs to further refine his new toe-tap?  Oh, and we also need to nail down a position for Coby Mayo, and so on.  No question?  I think the questions are numerous and many of them pretty important, and because they're so important, I think we'll start seeing a change in approach beginning this offseason.  I certainly hope so.

Nothing I've said disputes the need for internal development or diminishes the role our current core of young players - some of whom haven't exactly made a seamless transition - will need to play for sustained success.  Nor is it a call for stupid FA spending.  It very much is an argument that time needs to be thought of differently now that two very successful regular seasons are behind the O's and the huge impediment of Angelos ownership is no longer a factor.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, 24fps said:

The when is really two questions.  One is when do the O's stop being handicapped by the risk-averse mindset that's governed their behavior since 2018, and the second is when does a 74 year-old billionaire tire of being told he has to wait a little longer because Jackson Holliday needs to further refine his new toe-tap?  Oh, and we also need to nail down a position for Coby Mayo, and so on.  No question?  I think the questions are numerous and many of them pretty important, and because they're so important, I think we'll start seeing a change in approach beginning this offseason.  I certainly hope so.

Nothing I've said disputes the need for internal development or diminishes the role our current core of young players - some of whom haven't exactly made a seamless transition - will need to play for sustained success.  Nor is it a call for stupid FA spending.  It very much is an argument that time needs to be thought of differently now that two very successful regular seasons are behind the O's and the huge impediment of Angelos ownership is no longer a factor.

But again, nothing you say here changes anything. This team is going to be built from within. They are not going to try to build any other way…and they are right about that.

This doesn’t mean they don’t need to spend but again, those guys will supplement the roster.

And don’t think they won’t talk about how they added guys at the deadline for 2025. That they are “like free agent signings”.

Edited 20 hours ago by Sports Guy

[24fps]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But again, nothing you say here changes anything. This team is going to be built from within. They are not going to try to build any other way…and they are right about that.

This doesn’t mean they don’t need to spend but again, those guys will supplement the roster.

And don’t think they won’t talk about how they added guys at the deadline for 2025. That they are “like free agent signings”.

What team doesn't "build from within" to a significant degree?  Going forward are the O's going to build like every Yankeees team since the beginning of free agency?  No.  Are they going to build like the 2021 Orioles - also no.  I think this might be getting close to a semantic discussion over what supplement might mean, at the expense of substance.

I don't understand what's behind your last comment.  They were deadline trades.  Do you think Elias and Co. are going to point to them as justification for not spending this offseason?

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, 24fps said:

What team doesn't "build from within" to a significant degree?  Going forward are the O's going to build like every Yankeees team since the beginning of free agency?  No.  Are they going to build like the 2021 Orioles - also no.  I think this might be getting close to a semantic discussion over what supplement might mean, at the expense of substance.

I don't understand what's behind your last comment.  They were deadline trades.  Do you think Elias and Co. are going to point to them as justification for not spending this offseason?

I think it’s possible. I still think they spend some but I absolutely think that will be mentioned and something they could use as justification for why they may not do as much as some of us hope.

[TommyPickles]

How about Kirby Yates?

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s possible. I still think they spend some but I absolutely think that will be mentioned and something they could use as justification for why they may not do as much as some of us hope.

For the record, I'm good with a replacement for Burnes, an established, preferably RH bat and some intelligent tinkering with the BP.  After that I'm perfectly okay with rolling the dice on how quickly Holliday, Kjerstad and Mayo adjust to the majors.  Life as an O's fan could be a lot worse and Elias around is a good sign IMO.

The crusade I'm on at the moment is against the same mindset that was beaten into us during the John Angelos years.  I'm surprised it's still as prevalent as it seems to be.

[Jim'sKid26]

Critical questions without answers:

1) What will Grayson provide the team in 2025? Is he a ToR starter? How many IPs? Do you count on him or do you assume he's injury prone?

2) Who replaces Santander's offensive production? 

3) What's wrong with Adley and how should he be handled to allow him to regain his offensive potential?

4) What type of pitcher will Bradish be in 2025 and beyond?

[OriolesMagic83]

18 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Full season of Eflin replaces at least some of Burnes. Anyone hoping for a Burnes replacement is going to be disappointed IMO.

Replacing Kimbrel -1.1 WAR with Bautista should be a 3 WAR gain. 

I agree we shouldn't count on Adley for 5-6 WAR. Hopefully he is good for 3-4. 

I honestly have no idea what Elias will do. We are "good not great" just about everywhere on the roster except shortstop. We could probably do nothing and still win 80 games, maybe even 90. The problem is it gets extremely costly to add marginal talent to get from 90 to 100.

Best hopes to get from back from 91 wins to 100 is for Mayo and Holliday to become above average regular to All Star level players.  Will it happen?  Who knows?  I'm hopeful.  More for Holliday than for Mayo.  The O's will have to spend major money for at least a #2 starter.  Will Rubenstein step up?

[Ohfan67]

I think looking at Wins Above Average (WAA) by position is a fun way to explore how to improve the team.

RP 24th in WAA

SP 15th

2B 14th

3B 13th

The Orioles were top ten in WAA for all other positions. 

Important to note: RF was 7th in WAA, so important to replace that productivity in RF. 

Also of note, Baltimore was 6th in WAA at 1B. The Mountcastle platoon worked well there, despite Mountcastle inducing hair pulling in most fans on a pretty regular basis. 

 

Improving the pitching staff should be the primary goal. The current bullpen did not pitch well. I think they need another, very good back-end RP. The SP needs to at least tread water, but improvement would be good. 

I suspect the Orioles will hope that Holliday takes over 2B and Westburg moves to 3B. Solidifying RF should be a high priority. Hopefully Mateo is healthy as a middle infield backup, otherwise improving the backup depth should be a priority IMO. 

 

Despite the late season swoon and bad WC at bats, the team is top ten at most positions. 

[OriolesMagic83]

15 hours ago, 24fps said:

The when is really two questions.  One is when do the O's stop being handicapped by the risk-averse mindset that's governed their behavior since 2018, and the second is when does a 74 year-old billionaire tire of being told he has to wait a little longer because Jackson Holliday needs to further refine his new toe-tap?  Oh, and we also need to nail down a position for Coby Mayo, and so on.  No question?  I think the questions are numerous and many of them pretty important, and because they're so important, I think we'll start seeing a change in approach beginning this offseason.  I certainly hope so.

Nothing I've said disputes the need for internal development or diminishes the role our current core of young players - some of whom haven't exactly made a seamless transition - will need to play for sustained success.  Nor is it a call for stupid FA spending.  It very much is an argument that time needs to be thought of differently now that two very successful regular seasons are behind the O's and the huge impediment of Angelos ownership is no longer a factor.

Elias is refusing to spend money that Rubenstein has made available.  Do you have any sources?

[24fps]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Elias is refusing to spend money that Rubenstein has made available.  Do you have any sources?

Not following here.  I'm advocating that everybody stop acting like John Angelos still controls the Orioles' purse strings.  I fully expect a significant but not exorbitant increase in payroll for 2025. 

I  haven't said Elias is refusing to spend Rubenstein's money although others have suggested something sorta like that might be the case.  I don't buy it.  Personally I don't think the O's need enough at the moment to make a huge FA splash necessary.