Snell vs Burnes

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, casadeozo said:

Yes there should have been a comma after Snell lol

I’m  well aware of what Snells expectations are

Oh, word. Walker Buehler on a 1-2 incentivized deal along with Snell would be an awesome offseason for SP.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

11 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Sensible people can judge a trade 2 ways: for 2024 and for 2025 and beyond.

For 2024, it actually hurt the major league club. It hurt the depth at 2B, OF, and gave innings to a guy that should have been given to others.

For 2025 and beyond? Well, remains to be seen. But his numbers with the Marlins were lackluster, his peripherals and advanced stats were just as bad as Irvin (and we DFAd him!) and his velocity lost 4mph from right before the trade and he's down 5-6mph since 2022 when he was averaging 94. So, we'll see. I'd love to be wrong.

Looking at it that way is pretty sensible, I agree, but there are a bunch of people, both here and elsewhere, saying that it was an awful trade no matter what.

I think Elias was probably hoping for Irvin-esque production from Rogers for the rest of 2024, and then hopefully more in 2025 and 2026 after tinkering with his mechanics and repetoire this offseason. Obviously the 2024 part did not go to plan, but the lion's share of the book has yet to be written, so completely writing the deal off as simply Elias being a moron seems extremely premature to me. I don't think he would have made the trade if he didn't have a fairly specific plan for him, so I am willing to be patient and see what he looks like next spring after the pitching lab guys have more time to execute whatever plan Elias had in mind.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's odd. For all the analytics and data, sometimes it feels like Elias makes moves ignoring a lot of the obvious data. +

Let's take Rogers, Kimbrel, and Soto. All these guys have glaring red flags to even the casual browser of baseball-reference, yet he gave up 4 prospects and over $13 million for the 3 of them. And they performed as poorly as one would have predicted based on their peripherals. 

 

Kimbrel was a fine signing.  Soto had a lot of positives and you didn’t give up much for him.

I think Rogers is a guy who they see as a back end starter that has produced better than that in the majors and perhaps they believe Miami was screwing him up.

I pointed it out during the year but if you look at the baseball savant pages for the Miami starters, many of them saw big drop offs in those numbers in 2024. Why?  Hard to believe that’s just coincidental.

who knows…maybe this was a panic move and a terrible miscalculation by Elias but he not stupid. They did the move for a reason and it wasn’t something they did because they just didn’t want Norby and Stowers in the org.

[casadeozo]

8 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Oh, word. Walker Buehler on a 1-2 incentivized deal along with Snell would be an awesome offseason for SP.

Buehlers numbers in September were certainly better and his postseason start was marred by some poor defense behind him.

year 2 after TJ could be a boon for the O’s

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Kimbrel was a fine signing.  Soto had a lot of positives and you didn’t give up much for him.

I think Rogers is a guy who they see as a back end starter that has produced better than that in the majors and perhaps they believe Miami was screwing him up.

I pointed it out during the year but if you look at the baseball savant pages for the Miami starters, many of them saw big drop offs in those numbers in 2024. Why?  Hard to believe that’s just coincidental.

who knows…maybe this was a panic move and a terrible miscalculation by Elias but he not stupid. They did the move for a reason and it wasn’t something they did because they just didn’t want Norby and Stowers in the org.

The Marlins lost Alcantara, Perez for the entire season, Luzardo/Garrett/Cabrera had multiple injuries. It's easy to believe things are coincidental but when you look at what so many of their key players were going through and how others had to step up, it makes a lot more sense. Most of them are also young, too. 

 

Edited 55 minutes ago by LookitsPuck