After Two Weeks of Pie...

[Moose Milligan]

Plus, it is a proven fact that you cannot "learn" how to play at position at the major league level. Obviously, Pie has not been groomed or polished nearly enough to be an adequate defensive major league outfielder, much less a good one.

Yeah? Cal Ripken at SS says hello.

[amateurfan]

I will give him more leeway than Pie. The reason is that Pie has failed to hit major league pitching on multiple occasions. He was hyped as a prospect and then his own team gave up on him. His results, while not as an everyday player, show that he can't hit major league pitching. He has done nothing but re-affirm this with his spring training and regular season at bats this season.

I will give Reimold more time to adjust to major league pitching than Pie because he has truly never faced it during the regular season. Furthermore, not only did Reimold hit major league pitching better than Pie did in spring training (short term results favoring Reimold), but Pie has already struggled against ML pitching in the past (long term history contributing to my low tolerance for mistakes and poor performance with Pie).

At some point "tools" and "potential" have to be set aside in favor of results. Pie has been terrible in his time with the Orioles, and bad in his major league time with the Cubs. Reimold offers some potential as well - something which has won Pie lots of support on this board - but more importantly, Reimold's play has actually warranted a promotion. The team also has Montanez, who has done nothing but produce in the minors, as well as limited at bats in the majors. Merit should matter at some point, and winning is the bottom line. Letting go of Pie makes sense if this team is intent on actually winning games.

I would have no problem if Pie realizes his potential with another team. Productive OF's are easy to come by, but the runs Pie has cost us on both sides of the ball are potentially hurting the team in the win column, and it's unacceptable.

I am a big supporter of giving Pie time, but, other than the bit about Montanez, I can at least understand your point of view. There are elements of his game I enjoy watching. Obviously there are elements that I'm not too impressed by (as are many others). I just can't put a lot of stock into his ML numbers with the Cubs. For those who think that Pie will be a bust, I can't assert with confidence that he won't. Watching Pie in LF, however, is completely unlike watching Eaton on the mound. I'm willing to give him time. I can stomach watching a young guy with potential on an otherwise potent offense.

I don't think it's inherently wrong to think that his ML numbers with the Cubs are indicative of his future production. I agree that he doesn't look too spectacular in the field. I, too, will have more patience with Reimold than 13 games (because he has never faced ML pitching in a ML game/ Pie has already had more than 13 games -edit), but while Eaton and Hendrickson are taking the mound every five days, this team has zero chance of competing. It is the perfect situation for Pie to learn. (I also think it's the perfect situation for the young pitchers to learn in, too, but that's a different thread - which hasn't really been started). As it is, I hate losing, and at the moment Pie is not helping to win much. However, the Orioles have scored 70 runs so far. Say Pie were tearing the cover off the ball, and the Orioles had scored 80 runs (which I think is a preposterous increase), the Orioles still would have a run differential of -19 (which would still be 3rd worst in all of MLB). Pie is just not the problem right now.

[clapdiddy]

Yeah? Cal Ripken at SS says hello.

Bingo!

Pie's made some bad plays, but he's made some good ones as well. It's TWO WEEKS into the season, folks. I've seen enough of him both offensively and defensively to give him some more time to get things worked out. If we're still having this conversation 3 months from now, then, yes, let's get Reimold up here.

In the meantime, everyone needs to take it easy. Pie is a worry, but he's WAY down the list right now.

[ledzepp8]

Yeah? Cal Ripken at SS says hello.

As does Craig Biggio, who went from catcher to a Gold Glove second basemen.

[larrytt]

Ok, well, I'm not sure what to say at this point. Your background in these areas should make it clear that what you're advocating flies directly in the face of the basic maxims of statistics, projection, and regression. You don't throw away 8 data points and bet on the 9th data point BECAUSE the 9th data point is an outlier to the first 8. If anything, you question the 9th.

You are using the wrong example of an outlier. A simple counterexample would be to ignore the outlier stats of Mora at after age 30 because there were so many more earlier stats. He had obviously improved, and all those earlier stats became meaningless. The same is true of any other player who suddenly improves a lot. You could argue that Sandy Koufax and Randy Johnson weren't good pitchers after they suddenly became very good because there were years of stats showing they weren't very good. (But the stats didn't show that they'd suddenly learn control.) Or if a runner starts winning races assuming it's a fluke because he was losing before. In other words, you have to judge the specific case and type of outlier. Not all outliers are alike, especially when some are way in the past. More recent ones count more than ones from the past. Plus, an entire season isn't a small sample size; the larger the "outlier" stat the more it should be weighed.

I play tennis regularly. After many lessons, I started beating a player I'd lost to every time for years, and now I beat him easily. Based on years of stats, I should be losing to him still. And I'm considerably older than 27. (Note smiley.)

Seriously, this is a unique case that'll only be answered when he gets his chance in the major league level. I think we've spent enough time on this, so let's just see what happens.

-Larrytt

[J.D.]

I will give him more leeway than Pie. The reason is that Pie has failed to hit major league pitching on multiple occasions. He was hyped as a prospect and then his own team gave up on him. His results, while not as an everyday player, show that he can't hit major league pitching. He has done nothing but re-affirm this with his spring training and regular season at bats this season.

I will give Reimold more time to adjust to major league pitching than Pie because he has truly never faced it during the regular season. Furthermore, not only did Reimold hit major league pitching better than Pie did in spring training (short term results favoring Reimold), but Pie has already struggled against ML pitching in the past (long term history contributing to my low tolerance for mistakes and poor performance with Pie).

At some point "tools" and "potential" have to be set aside in favor of results. Pie has been terrible in his time with the Orioles, and bad in his major league time with the Cubs. Reimold offers some potential as well - something which has won Pie lots of support on this board - but more importantly, Reimold's play has actually warranted a promotion. The team also has Montanez, who has done nothing but produce in the minors, as well as limited at bats in the majors. Merit should matter at some point, and winning is the bottom line. Letting go of Pie makes sense if this team is intent on actually winning games.

I would have no problem if Pie realizes his potential with another team. Productive OF's are easy to come by, but the runs Pie has cost us on both sides of the ball are potentially hurting the team in the win column, and it's unacceptable.

This is the textbook definition of an "agenda." His own team didn't give up on him. He wasn't polished enough to help them contend, and they couldn't stash him in AAA again. I assure you that if they could have put back in Iowa, they would've done that and he wouldn't be an Oriole right now.

He was acquired with the Orioles knowing exactly what they were getting themselves into. They knew he wasn't a polished hitter. They knew they were shifting him over to left field and having him learn a new position. They knew that he was a project that would require a bunch of patience, and to this point they've been patient with him.

You will give him less of a chance than Reimold even though Pie's minor league numbers suggest he has a better chance of becoming an above average major league than Reimold's do. Further, you state that Pie's stints in the majors render all the proof you need about him, even though he's received 177 ABs in one stint, and 83 ABs in the next. And he did it at 22 and 23, ages in which Reimold was playing at high A and AA. I'd like to repeat this, because it bears repeating: Pie was playing in the MAJORS at 22. Reimold was at SINGLE A in the same year. Everything is right there for you to deduce that Pie is a better prospect and has a higher ceiling than Reimold's. But you've seen Pie struggle in a new league and in a new position facing pitchers he's never seen, and in a limited number of games, and you're ready to give up to him, AND give a guy with half the resume more leash? And you're ready to proclaim Reimold to be the superior player based off of a few games of at bats at a new level, knowing full well how streaky of a hitter Reimold is?

I think you'd struggle to find scouts or GMs that would agree with you.

Also, the concept of it being easy to find corner OFs that are productive is really funny. The 2001-2007 Orioles say hello.

[Sports Guy]

Yeah? Cal Ripken at SS says hello.

So does Cal at 3rd...who said it took him 100 games until he adjusted.

[Fan4Life]

Ok, well, I'm not sure what to say at this point. Your background in these areas should make it clear that what you're advocating flies directly in the face of the basic maxims of statistics, projection, and regression. You don't throw away 8 data points and bet on the 9th data point BECAUSE the 9th data point is an outlier to the first 8. If anything, you question the 9th.

Basically, you believe in Montanez despite what the basic rules of statistics and ballplayer development tell you about him. That is fine. There is nothing wrong with faith. I just don't think we should be selling it as supported by statistics. As I wrote earlier, I hope he does make it. I liked the guy when I saw him last year.

You are using the wrong example of an outlier. A simple counterexample would be to ignore the outlier stats of Mora at after age 30 because there were so many more earlier stats. He had obviously improved, and all those earlier stats became meaningless. The same is true of any other player who suddenly improves a lot. You could argue that Sandy Koufax and Randy Johnson weren't good pitchers after they suddenly became very good because there were years of stats showing they weren't very good. (But the stats didn't show that they'd suddenly learn control.) Or if a runner starts winning races assuming it's a fluke because he was losing before. In other words, you have to judge the specific case and type of outlier. Not all outliers are alike, especially when some are way in the past. More recent ones count more than ones from the past. Plus, an entire season isn't a small sample size; the larger the "outlier" stat the more it should be weighed.

I play tennis regularly. After many lessons, I started beating a player I'd lost to every time for years, and now I beat him easily. Based on years of stats, I should be losing to him still. And I'm considerably older than 27. (Note smiley.)

Seriously, this is a unique case that'll only be answered when he gets his chance in the major league level. I think we've spent enough time on this, so let's just see what happens.

-Larrytt

Seems like the point has gotten lost here. Montanez has the possibility of becoming an everyday player. Noone here denies that. There is history that tells us that the odds of a player making it to that level from where Montanez is starting, are remote, but they do exist. So is the point that Montanez should be playing over Pie, or that larrytt thinks he's MLB starter materal and most others do not?

[getxstoked]

Yeah? Cal Ripken at SS says hello.

Or Craig Biggio at 2B, don't forget that one.

[larrytt]

Seems like the point has gotten lost here. Montanez has the possibility of becoming an everyday player. Noone here denies that.

Yes, someone does. It was that very denial that brought me into this discussion, when someone wrote the following:

"Montanez is filler. He's nothing better than a 4th OF."

"He's nothing better than a 4th OF."

"Montanez isn't a prospect, so I don't really care about him."

-Larrytt

[waroriole]

Yeah? Cal Ripken at SS says hello.

So does Robin Yount

So does Paul Molitor

So does Kevin Youkilis

So does....

I could go on and on, but what is the point. He isn't listening...

As does Craig Biggio, who went from catcher to a Gold Glove second basemen.

So does Cal at 3rd...who said it took him 100 games until he adjusted.

Or Craig Biggio at 2B, don't forget that one.

Guys it's a proven fact, don't argue.

[Mashed Potatoes]

LFers with power and speed aren't exactly rare in this sport and I'm not even sure if Pie has the power part of that equation.

Tell me Jonathan, how many of these left fielders would you say have power and speed?

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS1	Carlos Quentin	CHW	43	11	13	1	0	7	13	0	0	7	6	.302	.426	.814	1.2402	Raul Ibanez	PHI	44	12	17	4	1	5	10	1	0	4	6	.386	.438	.864	1.301	Alfonso Soriano	CHC	48	13	14	2	0	5	9	2	1	8	13	.292	.393	.646	1.0394	Adam Dunn	WAS	36	7	11	2	0	3	11	0	1	17	9	.306	.528	.611	1.139	Jason Bay	BOS	41	10	12	3	1	3	10	1	0	15	8	.293	.474	.634	1.108	Adam Lind	TOR	54	11	19	4	0	3	12	0	0	7	14	.352	.426	.593	1.019	Travis Snider	TOR	31	6	9	4	0	3	9	1	0	3	8	.290	.353	.710	1.0638	Manny Ramirez	LAD	43	11	14	3	0	2	7	0	0	14	7	.326	.491	.535	1.026	Carlos Lee	HOU	45	4	11	4	0	2	8	0	0	4	3	.244	.294	.467	.761	Jack Cust	OAK	42	10	12	2	0	2	6	0	0	9	15	.286	.423	.476	.899RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Craig Monroe	PIT	16	3	4	0	0	2	6	0	0	2	2	.250	.333	.625	.958	Matt Diaz	ATL	25	5	7	3	0	2	7	0	0	5	5	.280	.387	.640	1.027	Luke Scott	BAL	45	5	12	3	0	2	6	0	0	5	8	.267	.353	.467	.820	Chris Duncan	STL	42	7	16	6	1	2	11	0	1	8	10	.381	.471	.714	1.185	Chase Headley	SDG	50	7	13	3	0	2	8	0	1	5	13	.260	.327	.440	.767	Seth Smith	COL	21	5	4	1	0	2	3	1	0	8	8	.190	.414	.524	.93817	Johnny Damon	NYY	39	8	10	1	1	1	3	3	0	6	5	.256	.362	.410	.772	Eric Byrnes	ARI	26	3	3	0	0	1	3	0	0	3	3	.115	.226	.231	.457	David DeJesus	KAN	47	4	11	1	1	1	4	0	1	3	7	.234	.308	.362	.669	Josh Willingham	WAS	18	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	5	.056	.190	.222	.413RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Delmon Young	MIN	33	3	7	0	0	1	7	0	0	2	10	.212	.257	.303	.560	Conor Jackson	ARI	42	4	8	1	0	1	7	1	0	2	7	.190	.227	.286	.513	Felix Pie	BAL	34	4	5	0	0	1	2	1	1	3	11	.147	.216	.235	.452	Ben Francisco	CLE	38	8	8	3	0	1	4	1	0	2	11	.211	.286	.368	.654	Ryan Braun	MIL	45	3	10	3	0	1	5	2	2	6	10	.222	.340	.356	.695	Matt Joyce	TAM	10	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	.100	.250	.400	.650	Daniel Murphy	NYM	47	12	15	2	0	1	4	0	0	4	6	.319	.365	.426	.791	Chris Dickerson	CIN	23	3	5	1	0	1	3	0	1	6	4	.217	.387	.391	.77829	Garret Anderson	ATL	25	3	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	.200	.231	.320	.551	Brian Giles	SDG	53	1	8	2	0	0	7	0	0	4	8	.151	.211	.189	.399RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Darin Erstad	HOU	7	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	.143	.250	.143	.393	Greg Norton	ATL	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	.000	.091	.000	.091	Fernando Tatis	NYM	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	Marlon Anderson	NYM	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	Carlos Guillen	DET	43	7	8	2	0	0	4	0	0	7	7	.186	.308	.233	.540	Juan Pierre	LAD	8	0	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	.375	.444	.375	.819	Ross Gload	FLA	13	6	4	0	1	0	3	0	0	7	0	.308	.524	.462	.985	Willie Harris	WAS	9	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	.222	.417	.222	.639	Carl Crawford	TAM	54	6	13	3	1	0	7	4	0	1	14	.241	.263	.333	.596	Marcus Thames	DET	18	2	4	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	6	.222	.250	.389	.639

[jackprac]

Ok, well, I'm not sure what to say at this point. Your background in these areas should make it clear that what you're advocating flies directly in the face of the basic maxims of statistics, projection, and regression. You don't throw away 8 data points and bet on the 9th data point BECAUSE the 9th data point is an outlier to the first 8. If anything, you question the 9th.

Basically, you believe in Montanez despite what the basic rules of statistics and ballplayer development tell you about him. That is fine. There is nothing wrong with faith. I just don't think we should be selling it as supported by statistics. As I wrote earlier, I hope he does make it. I liked the guy when I saw him last year.

1st time poster, long time lurker here putting in his two cents.I don't think this type stat analysis works in baseball. I've been following the O's for 55 yrs and have seen this happen for many players in that one fine day the light bulb lights up and they get it. Lou Montanez gets it. He knows, now, he can hit major league pitching. Last year the light bulb came on. He looked like a major league hitter when he came up last year and stats affirmed my impression .

The OH (both pro and anti-Pie) has missed several important things to consider vis-a-vis Pie. The fact that Olsen was traded for him is inconsequential, what does matter is who took his spot on the cubs! Joey Gathwright is the man who the Royals gave up on based on a lovely .591 OPS and I hear he isn't a defensive whiz either! According to the Cubs he was a better option for the Cubs at twice the salary than Pie. A lot of you think that Crow and T-bone can work some sort of a miracle with this kid should consider the fact that they speak English and Pie does not. Maybe Juan can help, but I don't think he's the guy to teach him how to play left field. T-bone may have been instrumental in acclimating AJ,but he will have a harder time with Pie because of the language barrier. This is a particular problem with Dominicans because they have less exposure to English than other Latin players (see DCab). They are non-english speaking euro-centric.In most latin countries English is the most popular second language, in Dominican Republic not so much. In short call me skeptical that he will make it, but I hope so. I think it would be counterproductive to let him face lefties when he can't hit righties yet. For Lou Montenez, its now or never or you risk screwing up his psyche.

[OrioleWay27]

This is the textbook definition of an "agenda." His own team didn't give up on him. He wasn't polished enough to help them contend, and they couldn't stash him in AAA again. I assure you that if they could have put back in Iowa, they would've done that and he wouldn't be an Oriole right now.

He was acquired with the Orioles knowing exactly what they were getting themselves into. They knew he wasn't a polished hitter. They knew they were shifting him over to left field and having him learn a new position. They knew that he was a project that would require a bunch of patience, and to this point they've been patient with him.

You will give him less of a chance than Reimold even though Pie's minor league numbers suggest he has a better chance of becoming an above average major league than Reimold's do. Further, you state that Pie's stints in the majors render all the proof you need about him, even though he's received 177 ABs in one stint, and 83 ABs in the next. And he did it at 22 and 23, ages in which Reimold was playing at high A and AA. I'd like to repeat this, because it bears repeating: Pie was playing in the MAJORS at 22. Reimold was at SINGLE A in the same year. Everything is right there for you to deduce that Pie is a better prospect and has a higher ceiling than Reimold's. But you've seen Pie struggle in a new league and in a new position facing pitchers he's never seen, and in a limited number of games, and you're ready to give up to him, AND give a guy with half the resume more leash? And you're ready to proclaim Reimold to be the superior player based off of a few games of at bats at a new level, knowing full well how streaky of a hitter Reimold is?

I think you'd struggle to find scouts or GMs that would agree with you.

Also, the concept of it being easy to find corner OFs that are productive is really funny. The 2001-2007 Orioles say hello.

First of all, just because one of the worst teams in baseball over the past decade hasn't been able to find good outfielders doesn't mean that good outfielders are scarce, or that it's difficult to find quality outfield talent.

One of the many reasons the Orioles have been a miserable team is their lack of outfield talent. But the reason for lack of outfield talent wasn't an overall shortage of productive outfielders across major league baseball which you suggest, but rather the Orioles' ineptitude in signing quality free agent outfielders or developing OF's from within, with the obvious exception of Nick Markakis.

Productive outfielders are a dime a dozen compared to infield positional players or even quality starting pitchers. If you don't acknowledge or understand that fact, we can't have a reasonable discussion, because if that's the case, we perceive and analyze major league baseball completely differently.

I watched Nolan Reimold in person for a full minor league season. I have seen Felix Pie play this season and I know what he has accomplished in the past. My emphatic lack of patience with Pie results from the fact I don't think he can hit major league pitching. I firmly believe he was a product of Chicago Cub prospect hype, which is a very real phenomenon.

Have you noticed that the Cubs have not produced a single home grown positional talent aside from Geovany Soto? They have constructed their entire lineup almost exclusively via free agency and trades. Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley, Lee, Ramirez, and Fontenot have all been acquired through free agency or trade. Only Ryan Theriot comes from their farm system, and he was not a big prospect, nor is he an impact player.

The reason I point out the nature of the Cubs current team is that it reflects the Cubs atrocious track record when it comes to drafting, scouting, and minor league development. I hope you understand that part of my skepticism of Pie is that he comes from an organization that does not produce positional talent, and overrates a vast majority of its own prospects, including the amazing Corey Patterson. It's disturbing to me that the Orioles have fallen victim to such misperceptions of talent and ability more than once now. Although, I guess it's not surprising given the organization's overall incompetence in the midst of 10 years of losing, especially since our own scouting and minor league system was a complete joke until very recently.

The bottom line is that I can recognize talent when I see it. Pie has some tools but he does not have the ability to hit major league pitching with authority or consistency. My only concern as a fan is to watch the team win. Pie is not helping in that regard, nor do I think he can help this season, nor next season. If this organization can throw away a prospect like Hayden Penn, when pitching is a far more dire need, then we sure as heck can release a failed prospect like Pie with massive holes in his swing and little plate discipline. Reimold and Montanez deserve a look, and it's time they got it.

[Dipper9]

I have stated numerous times that I did NOT like the Olson for Pie trade, but that we should give him some shot now that he is on the team (although I think he's a bum, as in a bad ballplayer, not a homeless man). I have a hypothetical for all of you who think we need to let Pie drown before declaring he cant swim.

Lets suppose that both Jones (God forbid) and Freel go on the 15 day DL. 15 day, no more, no less. And lets also suppose that Reimold and Montanez are brought up, one as the starting left fielder (Reimold) and one as the 4th outfiedler/bench guy (Montanez). And let's also suppose that Pie continues to struggle both in CF (filling in for Jones) and at the plate. And during that same 15 day stretch, both Reimold and Montanez show that they are indeed major league ready. So, when Jones comes back, (and lets assume Freel gets cut) do you STILL say send down Reimold so that Pie can continue to struggle in left field? I am curious to see how much rope you all would want to give Pie if Reimold proves he can handle the job!