Matusz vs Smoak - Jim Callis perspective

[napbow]

Not to toot my own horn, but I really think this is the salient point in this debate.

Several teams passed on Smoak despite his clearly very high level of play. Why? Because stud first basemen are much easier to find than stud pitchers and some other position prospects. Many prospects can hit but can't field their position. They end up playing fine at first.

I know Smoak's a plus defender, but I don't know how plus defense at first rates in a first baseman's value. My assumption is that the 10 teams that passed on Smoak would rather have a plus pitcher, catcher, short stop or third baseman than a plus first baseman.

That's why he fell...not because he's not good.

I still can't believe Alonso was drafted ahead of him.

[olehippi]

Are you implying that Eaton is average? Maybe you should substitute Bergesen.

Actually, I checked Baseball Reference on several of the Orioles pitchers who have departed the last several years and Eaton was one of the closest to an "average" AL pitcher. His career 4.94 ERA is relatively close to the AL league average of 4.58, as is his 1.44 WHIP....AL league average 1.43. And among what some consider a meaningless stat is the fact that he actually has a winning ML record of 70-68.

Of more interest to me is the fact that no one (except you in a somewhat rescinding way) even addressed the question I posed in the post.

[JTrea81]

I still can't believe Alonso was drafted ahead of him.

Alonso was just Cinci's choice. They were really high on him for some reason.

[napbow]

Alonso was just Cinci's choice. They were really high on him for some reason.

Exactly. I bet you they will be kicking themselves for passing on JS than the Orioles.

[Fan4Life]

Exactly. I bet you they will be kicking themselves for passing on JS than some posters on the OriolesHangout.

Fixed that for you.

[JTrea81]

Exactly. I bet you they will be kicking themselves for passing on JS than the Orioles.

Well Alonso is raking in A ball right now. It could be close to a draw eventually.

[LookinUp]

Exactly. I bet you they will be kicking themselves for passing on JS than the Orioles.

Probably so, but Alonso's a good hitter too. This illustrates my point about how (relatively) easy it is to find a masher at first base.

I do agree that they probably should have picked Smoak though. I just think the differense is a player like Tex versus a player like Pena (real difference, but not HUGE).

[LookinUp]

Actually, I checked Baseball Reference on several of the Orioles pitchers who have departed the last several years and Eaton was one of the closest to an "average" AL pitcher. His career 4.94 ERA is relatively close to the AL league average of 4.58, as is his 1.44 WHIP....AL league average 1.43. And among what some consider a meaningless stat is the fact that he actually has a winning ML record of 70-68.

Of more interest to me is the fact that no one (except you in a somewhat rescinding way) even addressed the question I posed in the post.

Well, i didn't mean to be rescinding. Heck, I don't even know what that means!

What I meant to point out was that Eaton isn't league average. You can go back in history and quote stats, but a team with the 2009 version of Adam Eaton couldn't win with a lineup full of Babe Ruths. It just makes the comparison difficult because he's certainly not comparable to an average fielder (which I assume is slightly better than Mora).

To answer your question, I don't think I can answer your question. Neither are likely to win the AL East much less the world series. However, I'd guess the team with better pitching stands a much better shot.

[napbow]

Well Alonso is raking in A ball right now. It could be close to a draw eventually.

Offensively that could be true. I remember reading that Alonso's defense leaves a lot to be desired (potential DH) where Smoak's is well above average.

[geschinger]

Either would have have been a great choice but put me in the camp that preferred Matusz... We needed high ceiling pitching (and still do) more than we needed a high ceiling 1b prospect. It's why if there are two equally ranked prospects when we pick this year I hope we'll also chose the pitching option.

[murrayfan420]

bleacher report article on Matusz:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/189940-brian-matusz-could-we-be-seeing-a-matt-wieters-situation

[JTrea81]

This illustrates my point about how (relatively) easy it is to find a masher at first base.

Find one in this draft after the first round. It's not as easy as you think.

Poythress is the only one available that I can see in this draft.

Last year's draft was rare with the all the top college positional talent available. The Orioles should have taken advantage and left the pitching to the later rounds or the 2009 draft.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Well Alonso is raking in A ball right now. It could be close to a draw eventually.

I find that doubtful. Smoak's D is a plus and Alonso's is questionable.

Smoak is only 4 months older and he's got a .947 OPS in AA, Alonso has a .881 OPS in A+.

[LookinUp]

Find one in this draft after the first round. It's not as easy as you think.

Poythress is the only one available that I can see in this draft.

Last year's draft was rare with the all the top college positional talent available. The Orioles should have taken advantage and left the pitching to the later rounds or the 2009 draft.

BA is currently ranking Snyder as not in their top 10 first basemen in the minors. Now, I'm sure they're just slow to come around on Snyder, but doesn't this tell you anything about the number of quality first basemen out there? Look at these guys that are in the majors and show me another position that has depth like this. Seriously, there are a lot of good first base bats out there. FYI, I think this was sorted on Average.

1 Kevin Youkilis

2 Miguel Cabrera

3 Justin Morneau

4 Albert Pujols

5 Nick Johnson

6 Russell Branyan

7 Todd Helton

8 Paul Konerko

9 Billy Butler

10 James Loney

11 Adrian Gonzalez

12 Mark Teixeira

13 Kendry Morales

14 Casey Kotchman

15 Prince Fielder

16 Aubrey Huff

17 Ryan Howard

18 Jorge Cantu

19 Derrek Lee

20 Adam LaRoche

21 Carlos Pena

22 Lance Berkman

23 Jason Giambi

24 Chris Davis

[Slappy]

It's impossible to deny Callis' point that a front line starter is more valuable than a mashing first baseman, simply because there are fewer of them. That's a good reason to take Matusz.

Of course, college hitters generally project more accurately than pitchers of any level, and over the course of the season a top notch hitter contributes more to win total than a front line pitcher. Reasons to take Smoak.

The guys who wanted Smoak were right. So were those who preferred Matusz.

AM's philosophy is to buy hitting and develop pitching, so it's hardly a surprise things worked out the way they did. Really, it's a win-win either way.