Sun: O's likely to make offer to Sano, have some interest in Chapman

[Moose Milligan]

After the freakin '71 and '79 Series, we gotta beat the freakin Pirates at SOMETHING, other than who has been the better bad franchise over the past decade or so....

[Moose Milligan]

As far as my official stance on Sano, it'd be nice to get him but I won't be going insane if we don't. The future of the Orioles does not hinge on Sano, nor does the future of the Orioles international relations in the Dominican.

[Lucky Jim]

True but Sano gives you more potential for your dollar than Koji did. With Sano you could have an MLB superstar or a dud.

However, given the fact that you could spend say $4 million and possibly develop a superstar internally, vs. pay $100 million plus for one in FA or trade several valuable pieces to get one, you would think that the $4 million investment would be worth it, not even taking into effect the watershed moment and inroads it would be for your franchise in the D.R.

At some point, you've got to take risks to move your franchise forward. We can continue to take relatively small risks and continue to inch forward, or we can take some more substantial risks that won't really set the franchise back other than the loss of $ and potentially speed up the process. To me the inroads that Sano represents is worth the financial risk alone, not even factoring his potential.

Look, I'm not going to go down this road with you again. Everything you say in paragraph one is right - it repeats what Mackus and I have both said. It's not insight.

Everything you say in paragraph two is too simplistic to be helpful. You've completely removed any probabilistic component from the equation, leaving you with: possible stud = $4m. But what if that possibility is only 33%? 25%? 10% 1%?

I'm not worried about "inroads" through signings in the DR. The academy (day-to-day) and a good offer (it's all about money, unlike, say, Japan, where we're bidding for guys who are already relatively wealthy) are all that's needed.

You point to "inroads" but I don't see any real evidence that they're necessary. Indeed, didn't your own examples of who we should follow (the A's) simply jump right in?

If we don't require "inroads" to get Sano, why would we need them for anyone else? The "inroads" argument only applies when you need the bargaining power. The only real bargaining power needed w/ most of these guys is $$$.

[JTrea81]

Look, I'm not going to go down this road with you again. Everything you say in paragraph one is right - it repeats what Mackus and I have both said. It's not insight.

Everything you say in paragraph two is too simplistic to be helpful. You've completely removed any probabilistic component from the equation, leaving you with: possible stud = $4m. But what if that possibility is only 33%? 25%? 10% 1%?

I'm not worried about "inroads" through signings in the DR. The academy (day-to-day) and a good offer (it's all about money, unlike, say, Japan, where we're bidding for guys who are already relatively wealthy) are all that's needed.

You point to "inroads" but I don't see any real evidence that they're necessary. Indeed, didn't your own examples of who we should follow (the A's) simply jump right in?

If we don't require "inroads" to get Sano, why would we need them for anyone else? The "inroads" argument only applies when you need the bargaining power. The only real bargaining power needed w/ most of these guys is $$$.

True but we need a lasting presence there so we can sign both the stud 7 figure players and also a lot of the lesser 6 figure guys as well. We need as much talent as we can get from as many sources as possible. The A's also don't have to worry about competing with the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox as their division rivals for talent down there.

It's pretty hard to sell a Dominican player on playing for the Orioles when you've the two AL East juggernauts down there IMO. Everybody wants to play for the Yankees or Red Sox and have hardly heard about the Orioles IMO. Sano could help make the Orioles more well known...

[Arthur_Bryant]

You point to "inroads" but I don't see any real evidence that they're necessary. Indeed, didn't your own examples of who we should follow (the A's) simply jump right in?

If we don't require "inroads" to get Sano, why would we need them for anyone else? The "inroads" argument only applies when you need the bargaining power. The only real bargaining power needed w/ most of these guys is $$$.

It looks that way. It took them one season of motivated spending to become players.

However, I'd like to know the scouting resources and how that was all set up, and on what schedule. Did that require some preparation, or did they just start sending in people?

I'll bet some interesting stories could be told that are only marginally about baseball. Most Americans face some significant adjustments when they're thrown into a Third World or emerging-nation culture for the first time.

Especially when there's a language issue.

Especially when doing business.

Especially when it requires meeting people at their own level, rather than in the coffee shop at the Hyatt, for example.

In fact, having known a few scouts, the mind truly boggles.

[Stotle]

It looks that way. It took them one season of motivated spending to become players.

However, I'd like to know the scouting resources and how that was all set up, and on what schedule. Did that require some preparation, or did they just start sending in people?

I'll bet some interesting stories could be told that are only marginally about baseball. Most Americans face some significant adjustments when they're thrown into a Third World or emerging-nation culture for the first time.

Especially when there's a language issue.

Especially when doing business.

Especially when it requires meeting people at their own level, rather than in the coffee shop at the Hyatt, for example.

In fact, having known a few scouts, the mind truly boggles.

I'd imagine the scouts that organizations put in place in the DR are people with ties to the area or at the very least latin america. It would surprise me if the A's simply relocated scouts from the Midwest and handed them a hefty supply of sun screen and a checkbook tied to a $5mios account.

[Art Wing]

It depends how you define risk.

Yes, Koji is more likely to give you something for your money but that's not the only way of looking at it.

I agree with SG. Why should that be the only way of looking at it?

If that's the case then why put any money into really fringe low-ceiling guys signed in the later rounds of the draft or why invest in all that goes into international scouting in locations less likely to producte someone of value.

Of course some risks are greater than others of yielding something positive but there is certainly more than one way to look at anything.

[Lucky Jim]

True but we need a lasting presence there so we can sign both the stud 7 figure players and also a lot of the lesser 6 figure guys as well. We need as much talent as we can get from as many sources as possible. The A's also don't have to worry about competing with the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox as their division rivals for talent down there.

It's pretty hard to sell a Dominican player on playing for the Orioles when you've the two AL East juggernauts down there IMO. Everybody wants to play for the Yankees or Red Sox and have hardly heard about the Orioles IMO. Sano could help make the Orioles more well known...

What is this opinion based on? Talking w/ DR players? Talking with folks in the negotiations?

Do you base your opinions on anything these days?

[ejf1025]

It's pretty hard to sell a Dominican player on playing for the Orioles when you've the two AL East juggernauts down there IMO. Everybody wants to play for the Yankees or Red Sox and have hardly heard about the Orioles IMO. Sano could help make the Orioles more well known...

Have you ever been to the Dominican Republic? Or any third-world Latin country?

A good portion of the population lives in squalor; educational and health systems are pretty much useless for all but the ruling elite. For most of these "prospects" 5-figure bonuses are likely the most money they will ever see.

Why do you think they lie about their age?

You really think that brandname has any sway over them? Do you really think they'll turn down teams based on name-recognition?

There's a real world out there JTrea...

[Stotle]

Have you ever been to the Dominican Republic? Or any third-world Latin country?

A good portion of the population lives in squalor; educational and health systems are pretty much useless for all but the ruling elite. For most of these "prospects" 5-figure bonuses are likely the most money they will ever see.

Why do you think they lie about their age?

You really think that brandname has any sway over them? Do you really think they'll turn down teams based on name-recognition?

There's a real world out there JTrea...

To be fair, he is talking about prospects talented enough to be able to pick their organization, not kids straddling the line between a shot at a ML career and never leaving their home country.

[JTrea81]

What is this opinion based on? Talking w/ DR players? Talking with folks in the negotiations?

Do you base your opinions on anything these days?

MLB FAs usually have the Yankees and Red Sox at the top of their list because of their status, that's common knowledge. Why would Dominican FAs who have the talent to pick their own organization choose differently? I'm sure they want to play winning baseball too...

[ejf1025]

To be fair, he is talking about prospects talented enough to be able to pick their organization, not kids straddling the line between a shot at a ML career and never leaving their home country.

I guess.

They're going to the money...90% of the time.

The reason they "choose" the Yanks and Sox is because they have the most money.

Sure, there are probably occasional exceptions. But by and large...I would easily wager they could care less about the popularity or winning record of the team they are playing.

[ejf1025]

MLB FAs usually have the Yankees and Red Sox at the top of their list because of their status, that's common knowledge. Why would Dominican FAs who have the talent to pick their own organization choose differently? I'm sure they want to play winning baseball too...

If status = money, then you are right.

[crawdad]

MLB FAs usually have the Yankees and Red Sox at the top of their list because of their status, that's common knowledge. Why would Dominican FAs who have the talent to pick their own organization choose differently? I'm sure they want to play winning baseball too...

International amateurs tend to go toward organizations that have proven themselves before. Yankees and BoSox get their share, but you often see other teams have success there over those two juggernauts. As much as money has to do with it, so does the organizations ground game.

[Stotle]

I guess.

They're going to the money...90% of the time.

The reason they "choose" the Yanks and Sox is because they have the most money.

Sure, there are probably occasional exceptions. But by and large...I would easily wager they could care less about the popularity or winning record of the team they are playing.

The point is, if given the opportunity to choose, do you (as a teenager) move thousands of miles to a strange country (where you don't speak the language) to play for:

1. the team you've heard about, whose academy has a strong reputation, who has signed numerous kids from your region (who are in the very system you would be joining), whose scouts have spoken with you and your family for years, who is offering you $250K; or

2. the team you know exhists, but has never really had scouts or representatives around, who has no strong latin american presence in the system you will be joining, who is offering you $275K

My guess is that unless it's a truly significant amount of money, the player is going to go where he is comfortable (if given the option).

If the player is a marginal talent, 19 years old and finally given the opportunity to sign for $15K, I'm sure he jumps at any team regardless of reputation or comfort.