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Sun: O's likely to make offer to Sano, have some interest in Chapman

JTrea81

By JTrea81
in Orioles Talk

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Boy Howdy All-Star

Boy Howdy

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One thing about Sano --if he's 6'3", 190-lbs as a 16-year-old, I can't see him sticking at shortstop (and, yes, I'm familiar with Cal Ripken).

I want him, and I'm excited about the possibility, but expecting anything out of somebody that young is setting yourself up for disappointment. By all means hope, but a lot of things can happen...

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fansince71 All-Star

fansince71

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One thing about Sano --if he's 6'3", 190-lbs as a 19-year-old, I can't see him sticking at shortstop (and, yes, I'm familiar with Cal Ripken).

I want him, and I'm excited about the possibility, but expecting anything out of somebody that young is setting yourself up for disappointment. By all means hope, but a lot of things can happen...

Fixed that for you.

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winudi Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

winudi

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Browsing the "tweets" of Kiley McDaniel, the national opinion seems to be that the bidding for Sano is likely to be suppressed because of the lack of interest from more than a few teams.

Question asked: @kileymcd "Yeah, I find it interesting that Sano hasn't signed. Looks like the Pirates overplayed their hand. Heard anything re: bidding war?"

Response from McDaniel: @thinkblue1194 "the chatter is the exact opposite...the longer it goes, the more teams figure out it's 3 bidders tops and the price falls"

So, this would support the supposition that, nationally, the interest is limited to O's, Pirates, and maybe Twins. And it would also support my belief that Melewski's sources are with the Orioles and that those sources are concerned about other teams entering the fray and prepared to respond if necessary.

The only reason to be concerned about Melewski would be the fact that MASN is a fan website and the O's would want the fans to believe we will pursue Sano heavily. But Roch has refuted several times that the Orioles manipulate his writing in any way and I would imagine the same could be said for Melewski.

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Arthur_Bryant All-Star

Arthur_Bryant

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Browsing the "tweets" of Kiley McDaniel, the national opinion seems to be that the bidding for Sano is likely to be suppressed because of the lack of interest from more than a few teams.

Response from McDaniel: @thinkblue1194 "the chatter is the exact opposite...the longer it goes, the more teams figure out it's 3 bidders tops and the price falls"

This doesn't exactly make sense (I mean McDaniel's comment, not your post). If teams are even somewhat interested, the lack of bidding would seem to be a reason to drop in for a potential bargain. I suspect that this is what will happen if this kid is anywhere close to the talent advertised.

However, if McDaniel is correct, it suggests that the MLB age investigation may be hurting Sano just by dragging on this long.

This may be just the moment for the O's to drop in a preemptive offer contingent on a favorable result of the test.

BTW in using Matusz's bonus as a standard, we should bear in mind that he signed an MLB contract, which adds to the value of the deal. He was also considered a relative value for his spot in the draft. Overall market value for a Top Five pick -- if they see him that way -- must be closer to $4-5MM.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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One thing about Sano --if he's 6'3", 190-lbs as a 16-year-old, I can't see him sticking at shortstop (and, yes, I'm familiar with Cal Ripken).

I want him, and I'm excited about the possibility, but expecting anything out of somebody that young is setting yourself up for disappointment. By all means hope, but a lot of things can happen...

At least one media report from Pittsburgh said he projects as an outfielder. If size is his only problem then he could still profile at almost any other position.

Either way, if he's really only 16 and his bat is what people hope it will be, our current needs shouldn't factor into his acquisition at all.

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winudi Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

winudi

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This doesn't exactly make sense (I mean McDaniel's comment, not your post). If teams are even somewhat interested, the lack of bidding would seem to be a reason to drop in for a potential bargain. I suspect that this is what will happen if this kid is anywhere close to the talent advertised.

However, if McDaniel is correct, it suggests that the MLB age investigation may be hurting Sano just by dragging on this long.

I agree with you. I was having trouble wrapping my head around McDaniel's logic. It sounds like he is saying that he is hearing there is NO interest from anywhere else. There are several reasons for this. A few off the top of my head are that teams have spent their money elsewhere, they don't want to pay what they are hearing other teams are willing to (value), or they just aren't that impressed. The age investigation is certainly a factor.

IMO, the O's will wait out the investigation and then make an offer. He won't sign before MLB gets done because his agent "knows" he is 16. I mean if you are Rob Plummer, you can't take an offer now. If it turns out he isn't 16 (and at this point, I can't imagine that would happen), he will get a lot less. But if he is 16, then you restart/amp up negotiations and create your bidding war. I really don't think an age-conditional offer will get this done.

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crawdad Major Leaguer

crawdad

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This doesn't exactly make sense (I mean McDaniel's comment, not your post). If teams are even somewhat interested, the lack of bidding would seem to be a reason to drop in for a potential bargain. I suspect that this is what will happen if this kid is anywhere close to the talent advertised.

However, if McDaniel is correct, it suggests that the MLB age investigation may be hurting Sano just by dragging on this long.

This may be just the moment for the O's to drop in a preemptive offer contingent on a favorable result of the test.

BTW in using Matusz's bonus as a standard, we should bear in mind that he signed an MLB contract, which adds to the value of the deal. He was also considered a relative value for his spot in the draft. Overall market value for a Top Five pick -- if they see him that way -- must be closer to $4-5MM.

Minnesota tried this to no effect. Such a deal is in favor of the team and not the player. Only the player takes the risk in such a situation as long as money is not drying up. The bet is that Sano comes out at 16 and then maybe some teams jump into it.

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