Sun: O's likely to make offer to Sano, have some interest in Chapman

[allstar1579]

For most of these kids I would bet that comfort has no meaning. I don't think the kids or their families have much say in the business.

"That is because buscones often determine not just which team a player signs with, but the size of the signing price as well. For that they are well compensated, regularly taking 30% of the bonus -- more than five times the commission U.S.-based agents typically charge."

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/15/sports/sp-dominicans15

True but these kids aren't US citizens and don't know anyone in this country, this isn't just a dollar amount and everything is ok, they are trusting that this team will set them up with a secure environment too. If they think that they are just another contract and they really don't care about them, they are all alone in a strange country. Money of course is a motivating factor, but the society they have there of small, poor close knit families and friends of family carry a lot of weight for these players. Look at how many guys in the majors have special relationships with other players from their countries, and when guys like Vlad a couple years back sign with teams because of the high contingent of players from a certain region like the DR. The guys that are sending them along down there these guys trust with their lives, and if they endorse one team over another, you better believe these players are going to listen.

[birdtown]

Not sure if this was posted from BA's "Ask BA" column...if so, please delete:

The answer pertains to a question asking if any of the international signings would be placed in this year's top 100:

Dominican shortstop Sano (who's still unsigned), Cardinals outfielder Mateo and Yankees catcher Sanchez all have great potential. However, there are scouts with concerns about all three players, and none of them is a surefire bet to be a big league regular. A player with Mateo's skills could be the next Fernando Martinez, but we're willing to wait another year to gain more information on all of these prospects. The player with the best chance of those three at the Top 100 is Sano, who if he is 16—which MLB reportedly has yet to determine—has an advanced offensive skill set with a good fundamental swing, bat speed, power potential and athleticism. Assuming Sano signs, he'll get consideration for the Top 100, but he's not a lock to make the list.

[Stotle]

But the dollar amounts are the point.

You can't just change the hypothetical to any amount...$100 fine. 25k...15k...even 5k can be huge in comparison.

Sure, money being somewhat equal, a player would prefer the known commodity. But money (or better yet the difference in money), carries a lot more weight there (even though the sums seem trivial by US business standards).

Well, it's quite easy to say that "nothing matters but the money" when you skew a hypothetical so that the difference in money is significant enough so as not to permit anything else to matter.

Poor or rich, money and comfort go into an equation when making a business decision. I think it's a shade narrow to assume the decisions of a poorer individual are slave to monetary differentiation -- particularly when we are talking about at the lowest offer being a sum of money that is life changing for said person.

[ejf1025]

Well, it's quite easy to say that "nothing matters but the money" when you skew a hypothetical so that the difference in money is significant enough so as not to permit anything else to matter.

Poor or rich, money and comfort go into an equation when making a business decision. I think it's a shade narrow to assume the decisions of a poorer individual are slave to monetary differentiation -- particularly when we are talking about at the lowest offer being a sum of money that is life changing for said person.

A) I never said "nothing matters but the money." Don't put words in my mouth.

B) You put out a flawed hypothetical because it appeared you assumed that 25k was neglible as compared to comfort. My entire point is that it is scale. You used the 25k difference because you thought it would be a good example...a proof point that recognition and comfort would outweigh monetary value. I understand your intent, and do agree that money is not the only factor in the minds of these young men. BUT...a neglible 25k in our economy (or in this case, your example) is a huge sum in the Dominican...

[Stotle]

A) I never said "nothing matters but the money." Don't put words in my mouth.

B) You put out a flawed hypothetical because it appeared you assumed that 25k was neglible as compared to comfort. My entire point is that it is scale. You used the 25k difference because you thought it would be a good example...a proof point that recognition and comfort would outweigh monetary value. I understand your intent, and do agree that money is not the only factor in the minds of these young men. BUT...a neglible 25k in our economy (or in this case, your example) is a huge sum in the Dominican...

Well, this is getting silly. The bolded makes absolutely zero sense as a standalone point. 25K isn't necessarily a huge sum for a eligible Domincan signee. Or, are you implying that Sano would take $3,525,000 and a bad team/situation over $3,500,000 and a great team/ideal situation? I certainly agree with you that the difference between a $50K and $75K bonus is enormous. But this is the trouble with continually sticking to my first hypothetical. It isn't the numbers in particular that matter to the central point that JTrea originally was making. The point is simply that in order to best position itself in the market, a team is going to have to (at some point) establish a presence, rather than just swooping in with the most money whenever they want a player.

Otherwise, you are forcing yourself to always have to offer more than that theoretical amount that will cause a player to put aside any concerns as to your history and his short term/long term comfort and happiness.

[GoldGlove21]

Well, this is getting silly. The bolded makes absolutely zero sense as a standalone point. 25K isn't necessarily a huge sum for a eligible Domincan signee. Or, are you implying that Sano would take $3,525,000 and a bad team/situation over $3,500,000 and a great team/ideal situation? I certainly agree with you that the difference between a $50K and $75K bonus is enormous. But this is the trouble with continually sticking to my first hypothetical. It isn't the numbers in particular that matter to the central point that JTrea originally was making. The point is simply that in order to best position itself in the market, a team is going to have to (at some point) establish a presence, rather than just swooping in with the most money whenever they want a player.

Otherwise, you are forcing yourself to always have to offer more than that theoretical amount that will cause a player to put aside any concerns as to your history and his short term/long term comfort and happiness.

I agree Stotle, I really wanted a Sony HDTV, but it cost me $2500. I decided to go to my second option, the Vizio only cost me $2450. In the context of Sano deciding between say us or the Yankees, why would he care about $25k over winning. Now if the Orioles were offering 300k-600k more than the Yanks, then yeah maybe he takes that. Based on what I have read, the Orioles are not getting this guy. I would be shocked if we offered him the $3-$4.5 Million he is likely to get from another team.

I will say this, If the Orioles are not going to spend money of free agents, then they should be looking for multiple international prospects in the $1-$3 million per season range.

[crawdad]

Well, this is getting silly. The bolded makes absolutely zero sense as a standalone point. 25K isn't necessarily a huge sum for a eligible Domincan signee. Or, are you implying that Sano would take $3,525,000 and a bad team/situation over $3,500,000 and a great team/ideal situation? I certainly agree with you that the difference between a $50K and $75K bonus is enormous. But this is the trouble with continually sticking to my first hypothetical. It isn't the numbers in particular that matter to the central point that JTrea originally was making. The point is simply that in order to best position itself in the market, a team is going to have to (at some point) establish a presence, rather than just swooping in with the most money whenever they want a player.

Otherwise, you are forcing yourself to always have to offer more than that theoretical amount that will cause a player to put aside any concerns as to your history and his short term/long term comfort and happiness.

Yeah, I think a lot of folks are caught up in how we perceive the world and not how these kids and their handlers perceive it. Perhaps a way to think of it is this . . . the per capita income in the Dominican is about 8k while it is 40k here in the United States (we'll ignore that baseball prospects tend to come from families who are significantly above 40k . . . more like 48k). Anyway, the difference between a 900k and a 800k bonus just is not a lot because it often is not perceived as much of a difference. This is particularly true when you have a solid relationship, know people, and know the track record of an organization. Likewise, if the Orioles offered you a 4MM signing bonus while the Yankees offered you a 4.4MM signing bonus . . . you just might sign with the Orioles because you feel more of an attachment to them. Pure hard cold business sense is just not the only thing in play for these kids.

Now for the buscone, you have several strings pulling at you. One, the players and their families have to trust you. Two, you have to establish/maintain connections to Major League clubs and agents. Three, you want to make money. It is conceivable that, as a buscone, you would push a player in the direction of a club offering less because you want to be able to maintain a certain level of connectivity to enable future prospects to be seen and signed by a certain club. For instance, if I was a scout and you feed me good talent, I would be more willing to look at the marginal talent you have . . . based on you being able to find good talent, I may even take a chance on some of the marginal guys. In turn, the buscone is getting more people signed and having more families turn to him to train their kids.

Applying the same logic to MLB free agency just does not relate well to amateur free agency. We see countless examples of this every year.

Someone asked a while back what Sano is likely to get . . . I imagine about 3MM if MLB okays him. A lot of information is just not out there to digest. I would not take anything said by an organization at face value and you all should recognize not to treat updates by media scouts the same way you would with free agency. There is a whole lot more posturing and deception by teams trying to sign these guys.

[birdman57]

I agree Stotle, I really wanted a Sony HDTV, but it cost me $2500. I decided to go to my second option, the Vizio only cost me $2450. In the context of Sano deciding between say us or the Yankees, why would he care about $25k over winning. Now if the Orioles were offering 300k-600k more than the Yanks, then yeah maybe he takes that. Based on what I have read, the Orioles are not getting this guy. I would be shocked if we offered him the $3-$4.5 Million he is likely to get from another team.

I will say this, If the Orioles are not going to spend money of free agents, then they should be looking for multiple international prospects in the $1-$3 million per season range.

My thoughts:

-- The last I looked, it was down to the Orioles and Pirates. Has that changed??

-- Since we're no longer a serious FA Player, I would say: let's spend some money and take a flyer on two or three of these guys. It would be better spent money than say tossing it away on Walker/Baez types.

-- I would spend the extra $50 to get my top choice in HD LOL:)

[winudi]

Melewski drops some knowledge. Good news if you want this kid.

http://masnsports.com/2009/07/os-still-interested-in-sano.html

[waroriole]

Melewski drops some knowledge. Good news if you want this kid.

http://masnsports.com/2009/07/os-still-interested-in-sano.html

Nice find. Hopefully, we can get him signed. Also, nice to see a bit of a refutation of the line that we won't offer him more than Hobgood or Matusz.

[Hank Scorpio]

So, the Treacoaster continues.

Do you believe Melewski as much or more than you believe Jorge Arangue?

[waroriole]

So, the Treacoaster continues.

Do you believe Melewski as much or more than you believe Jorge Arangue?

Well, just like with Tex I believe whoever says what I want to hear. This is me talking, not Trea.

[winudi]

So, the Treacoaster continues.

Do you believe Melewski as much or more than you believe Jorge Arangue?

They both have their sources. You would assume Melewski's are in the O's front office, while Arangure's are in Latin America and on a national level. Arangure posted his comments a couple days ago. Things may have changed with more teams entering the fray as supported by this quote: "There are some in baseball that believe more clubs now have interest in Sano." Assuming his sources are in the O's front office, that would imply the Orioles are prepared to enter into a bidding war for Sano.

Ultimately, I would say we will all believe what we want to believe, the majority of us believing Melewski more.

[JTrea81]

So, the Treacoaster continues.

Do you believe Melewski as much or more than you believe Jorge Arangue?

I believe Melewski. Arangure might just be basing his reports off conjecture and MacPhail's reputation. I remember he wasn't exactly non-biased when reporting about the Orioles for the Post. Still the O's could have floated some disinformation out there to keep the bidding low. If so, hopefully though that hasn't backfired and put more teams in the race...

[ChaosLex]

First time I've seen a picture of Sano. Kinda has a build like Pie, eh?