Sun: O's likely to make offer to Sano, have some interest in Chapman

[Moose Milligan]

Stotle, do you see us giving him more money than Matusz/Hobgood?

[Stotle]

Stotle, do you see us giving him more money than Matusz/Hobgood?

I'm not qualified to give an opinion. I haven't seen Sano myself, so I can't give my take on his skillset. I also don't know if BAL is willing to pay a premium if it is required. Jon (Crawdad) follows the Latin market more closely than do I -- he probably has more insight.

I will say that if he is considered by BAL to be a late-1st round talent, they should be willing to spend a reasonable amount above late-1st round money to sign him (considering the open market, rather than slotting system and exclusive negotiating rights). If they aren't willing to do that with Latin talent, don't bother wasting the time scouting and building a relationship with the big name guys. Stick to the five-figure kids and work to build-up your relationships/reputation enough to benefit from some good will down the line. It isn't an avenue for talent acquisition I believe to be effective at less than serious interest.

That's not a critique -- just my opinion. If you aren't ready or comfortable spending seven figures + a premium on the top guys, you shouldn't waste time courting them. Do what you have to do to get comfortable in market -- I'd rather them spend the money it cost to work out Sano to buy new gloves and pitching machines for their academy, or whatever.

Hope that doesn't come off as sour...

[makoman]

I'm not qualified to give an opinion. I haven't seen Sano myself, so I can't give my take on his skillset. I also don't know if BAL is willing to pay a premium if it is required. Jon (Crawdad) follows the Latin market more closely than do I -- he probably has more insight.

I will say that if he is considered by BAL to be a late-1st round talent, they should be willing to spend a reasonable amount above late-1st round money to sign him (considering the open market, rather than slotting system and exclusive negotiating rights). If they aren't willing to do that with Latin talent, don't bother wasting the time scouting and building a relationship with the big name guys. Stick to the five-figure kids and work to build-up your relationships/reputation enough to benefit from some good will down the line. It isn't an avenue for talent acquisition I believe to be effective at less than serious interest.

That's not a critique -- just my opinion. If you aren't ready or comfortable spending seven figures + a premium on the top guys, you shouldn't waste time courting them. Do what you have to do to get comfortable in market -- I'd rather them spend the money it cost to work out Sano to buy new gloves and pitching machines for their academy, or whatever.

Hope that doesn't come off as sour...

Thanks for the insight (though it wasn't my question), and no, it doesn't come off as sour. I would assume, if they are indeed interested in Sano (and by all accounts they are, worked him out a number of times, etc.), they know what the price tag potentially will be, and aren't going to waste their time if they are just going to throw a $1.5M offer out there. I agree that "late 1st round talent" doesn't equate to late 1st round money in the draft system. I'd hope they're ready to make a competitive offer. If they do that, even if he ultimately signs elsewhere for more $, I won't be too disheartened.

[Stotle]

Thanks for the insight (though it wasn't my question), and no, it doesn't come off as sour. I would assume, if they are indeed interested in Sano (and by all accounts they are, worked him out a number of times, etc.), they know what the price tag potentially will be, and aren't going to waste their time if they are just going to throw a $1.5M offer out there. I agree that "late 1st round talent" doesn't equate to late 1st round money in the draft system. I'd hope they're ready to make a competitive offer. If they do that, even if he ultimately signs elsewhere for more $, I won't be too disheartened.

Yeah, I don't really have a strong opinion one way or the other regarding actually signing Sano. If BAL signs him, I'll be interested to get a look at him and read up on what scouts "in the know" have to say. If they don't sign him, shrug, life goes on. Tough to get upset when I likely have about 2% of the info available to the people actually makingthe decision.

I would love insight into BAL's approach in Latin America -- until I have that, I'm happily agnostic outside of the theoretical.

[BaltimoreFan]

Yeah, I don't really have a strong opinion one way or the other regarding actually signing Sano. If BAL signs him, I'll be interested to get a look at him and read up on what scouts "in the know" have to say. If they don't sign him, shrug, life goes on. Tough to get upset when I likely have about 2% of the info available to the people actually makingthe decision

This is what people on the internet in general need to learn.

As fans, we have virtually no insight into the actual working of an organization and should speculate, but also acknowledge that there are 15,000 things that we haven't been clued in on.

[Sports Guy]

You're simply confusing the probabilistic determination of the value of the acquisition (which internalizes risk) for the risk itself.

I don't think anyone would define the risk of Koji as being "the risk he doesn't become an elite offensive shortstop."

Koji was a very very low risk acquisition - who at worst would be a MLB bullpen guy. Mackus is right on this one.

How so? He was low risk because its ok to piss away 10 million dollars on a middle reliever?

Would you give that money to Brian Bass?

The Orioles knew of his leg issues...They knew of the heat problems he would have. They knew he was likely headed to the pen....They knew all of that and give him 10 million dollars...That's not chump change.

Maybe Sano will be a UTI player at worse....Its a different type of risk.

Sano may not make it but he has immense talent, won't cost nearly the money Koji did, is young and has more upside but he may never get to AA, much less the majors.

Koji cost us a lot of money and may not be much more than Brian Bass to this team.

Its a different type of risk...I would rather spend 3-4 million on the young, top level prospect vs 10 million for the 34 y/o middle reliever.

[Mackus]

Its a different type of risk...I would rather spend 3-4 million on the young, top level prospect vs 10 million for the 34 y/o middle reliever.

Fortunately, thats never a decision that any team has to make, since they are completely different budget streams and decisions to make.

[Sports Guy]

Fortunately, thats never a decision that any team has to make, since they are completely different budget streams and decisions to make.

Oh absolutely...But when you are talking about pure risk, which I was, they are relevant to compare.

[El Gordo]

The point is, if given the opportunity to choose, do you (as a teenager) move thousands of miles to a strange country (where you don't speak the language) to play for:

1. the team you've heard about, whose academy has a strong reputation, who has signed numerous kids from your region (who are in the very system you would be joining), whose scouts have spoken with you and your family for years, who is offering you $250K; or

2. the team you know exhists, but has never really had scouts or representatives around, who has no strong latin american presence in the system you will be joining, who is offering you $275K

My guess is that unless it's a truly significant amount of money, the player is going to go where he is comfortable (if given the option).

If the player is a marginal talent, 19 years old and finally given the opportunity to sign for $15K, I'm sure he jumps at any team regardless of reputation or comfort.

If you go to the DR you would see that the $25K difference is pretty significant.

[Stotle]

If you go to the DR you would see that the $25K difference is pretty significant.

I think you are looking past the point I'm making in favor of debating facts in a hypothetical. The dollar amounts aren't the point -- the concept is. Fix the dollar amounts to whatever makes sense for you and re-read the hypo -- I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

True, I don't have a working familiarity with the DR, but my wife has spent time in Guatemala doing surgeries for a charitable organization. I'm well aware of the desparities generally between life here and life in Latin America.

[El Gordo]

I think you are looking past the point I'm making in favor of debating facts in a hypothetical. The dollar amounts aren't the point -- the concept is. Fix the dollar amounts to whatever makes sense for you and re-read the hypo -- I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

True, I don't have a working familiarity with the DR, but my wife has spent time in Guatemala doing surgeries for a charitable organization. I'm well aware of the desparities generally between life here and life in Latin America.

He is probably going to do what the buscone tells him, and the 25K is probably going towards the buscone's cut.

[allstar1579]

If you go to the DR you would see that the $25K difference is pretty significant.

It is, but more importantly for these guys is the trust and relationship they have with their "handler" down there. If say Jose is handling Miguel and he says go talk to team A, B or C, and team D comes in with a comparable offer but no endorsement from the trusted "advisor" I would expect that to carry a lot of weight.

[Stotle]

He is probably going to do what the buscone tells him, and the 25K is probably going towards the buscone's cut.

You aren't taking into account the buscone weighting his "cut" against the importance of maintaining his reputation among the players and their families. Again, your caught-up in the amount and not the concept, no?

Or, are you claiming that there is no amount too small for a player not to sell-out his comfort and a buscone to not sell out his players?

[ejf1025]

I think you are looking past the point I'm making in favor of debating facts in a hypothetical. The dollar amounts aren't the point -- the concept is. Fix the dollar amounts to whatever makes sense for you and re-read the hypo -- I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

True, I don't have a working familiarity with the DR, but my wife has spent time in Guatemala doing surgeries for a charitable organization. I'm well aware of the desparities generally between life here and life in Latin America.

But the dollar amounts are the point.

You can't just change the hypothetical to any amount...$100 fine. 25k...15k...even 5k can be huge in comparison.

Sure, money being somewhat equal, a player would prefer the known commodity. But money (or better yet the difference in money), carries a lot more weight there (even though the sums seem trivial by US business standards).

[El Gordo]

You aren't taking into account the buscone weighting his "cut" against the importance of maintaining his reputation among the players and their families. Again, your caught-up in the amount and not the concept, no?

Or, are you claiming that there is no amount too small for a player not to sell-out his comfort and a buscone to not sell out his players?

For most of these kids I would bet that comfort has no meaning. I don't think the kids or their families have much say in the business.

"That is because buscones often determine not just which team a player signs with, but the size of the signing price as well. For that they are well compensated, regularly taking 30% of the bonus -- more than five times the commission U.S.-based agents typically charge."

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/15/sports/sp-dominicans15