It's time for the next step

[JTrea81]

Yes, he thinks we should be more consistently competitive and have more wins. Again, that doesn't mean .500.

Furthermore, you, me, and many others have been calling for this team.

Don't you think it's a bit hypocritial to call for a team, have that team fall short of where you think it should be because 1st and 2nd year players struggle (no way!) and then say that AM wasn't right in making up the team?

I think it's wrong for MacPhail to rely completely on that young talent to all develop and win games. Because all of that talent is going to have a learning curve and won't support each other they way they need to.

2011 is completely unrealistic for competition with solely our young talent because of the learning curves that they will be on. Snyder and Bell will not produce right away IMO as they have to adjust to ML pitching, just as our young pitchers will not dominate right away without increased offensive support from players like Snyder and Bell. They will not have the confidence of consistant offensive support, so I expect them to provide more of the same in 2010 with a slight improvement in 2011. If everything breaks right, by 2012 we should have a consistant homegrown offense.

Now if we acquire some players to aid that talent and take some pressure away and provide the production while the younger talent can't, then I think in 2011 we'll be in much better shape and ready to take on the Yankees and Red Sox and beat them consistantly, which is what it will take to get to the playoffs.

[Mackus]

I am not even remotely saying this.

I am fine with the bulk of the team...But AM should do things this offseason to make us better.

If we go into OD next year with a team that isn't likely to win more 75 games and that is exactly what ends up happening, then we should go into the offseason with a new GM.

This bs of winning 70 games every year ain't gonna cut it.

Next year should be a big stepping stone year...If we win 79 games and have a really nice team in place, that's fine. If we struggle because we have a lot of injuries, that's fine....It happens...But if we struggle because AM has done a poor job of constructing the team and filling holes, then that's not fine.

But what exactly is filling holes?

Its completely reasonable to not want to sign an expensive FA starting pitcher. And its also completely reasonable to not want to sign Holliday or Bay given their costs, age, and our current OF. I think Lackey would be a good risk if he stays under 5 years, but its not a huge mistake if he doesn't go and outbid the Yankees, Mets, Angels, and Red Sox for him.

There are several smaller moves we'll hopefully make, but there isn't any one glaring thing we need to do. Basically we need to buy some time for Snyder and Bell and hopefully upgrade at SS with a potential longer-term option, although there is absolutely nothing wrong with staying with Izturis as the MLB SS if that potential long-term solution ends up being someone at AA or lower.

If we do nothing I'll be disappointed, but saying he should be fired if he doesn't improve the team from where we are right now is crazy to me. Next year ultimately doesn't matter. I'll be very disappointed if we're still not good and will certainly begin to doubt MacPhail's leadership if we have a win total in the low 70s, but I still don't think it would be time to fire him. I want and expect to see a good team on the field next year, but ultimately we don't have to be an 80+ win team to still be in position to contend in 2011, which is when MacPhail's real final grades are due.

[Sports Guy]

I just don't understand how you are putting such an emphasis on wins when we aren't going to contend.

If we aren't going to contend, it needs to be an evaluation year. We need to see both how the team improves, and how the young players improve individually.

We are looking at a June roster of every hole being filled on the team, going forward, besides SS, as of this very second. Right now we have that.

So are you saying go for it? Should we sign Lackey and pay him 15 million when we don't really know what we need yet?

Screw it...I want you to go on record right here. Would you be happy going into 2010 with the team that you posted in your other thread, minus Lackey?

If AM addresses SS, then I will be pretty happy.

I am not expecting him to sign Lackey but I do expect him to make a push for him and offer him a very good contract....It will be pretty disappointing if he doesn't do that.

[ejf1025]

MY POINT IS THAT YOU ARE COMPLETELY AND UTTERLY WRONG FOR EXPECTING US TO BE BAD NEXT YEAR!!!

My point is that practically everyone, including the Orioles FO, disagrees with you.

And for you to think that it is wrong of all of us to expect us to be much more competitive next year is ridiculous.

I tell you what..you have some low standards...You are fine with us being pathetic and not competitive next year..Unreal.

Talk about jumping to conclusions and putting words in people's mouths....

Please cite where I said I don't want them to do anything this off-season... Please cite where I said people shouldn't want the team to get better...

Please cite where I said the FO doesn't think we'll be better next year...

I thought you were able to actually work in abstract thought...but you are about as linear and literal as it gets. So to clarify:

1) Yes, I think the O's will be below .500 next season

2) Yes, I think they will add to the talent pool this off-season

3) No, I don't think it will be a "big" move

4) Yes, it is ridiculous and too early to advocate trading our young players for that "big" move

5) Yes, I'm fine with subtle moves because I think a good core is in place

6) Yes, I'd like to see them win the AL East.

7) No, signing Chone Figgins/Hank Blalock others simply to try and reach ".500" is not a good use of money or resources. I'd rather lose more with younger players.

8) Yes, whether we hit 500 or not, I want them to look towards a "big" addition in 2010 and 2011.

9) Yes, by "fine" with it, I mean I will not have lost confidence in McPhail if he continues to do what he is doing...I reserve the right to change my opinion.

10) No, by "fine" with it, I don't mean I like losing and am happy with a "pathetic" team.

Questions? Or would you like to tell me something groundbreaking like Matt Wieters wants to get better next year?

[Sports Guy]

But what exactly is filling holes?

Its completely reasonable to not want to sign an expensive FA starting pitcher. And its also completely reasonable to not want to sign Holliday or Bay given their costs, age, and our current OF. I think Lackey would be a good risk if he stays under 5 years, but its not a huge mistake if he doesn't go and outbid the Yankees, Mets, Angels, and Red Sox for him.

There are several smaller moves we'll hopefully make, but there isn't any one glaring thing we need to do. Basically we need to buy some time for Snyder and Bell and hopefully upgrade at SS with a potential longer-term option, although there is absolutely nothing wrong with staying with Izturis as the MLB SS if that potential long-term solution ends up being someone at AA or lower.

If we do nothing I'll be disappointed, but saying he should be fired if he doesn't improve the team from where we are right now is crazy to me. Next year ultimately doesn't matter. I'll be very disappointed if we're still not good and will certainly begin to doubt MacPhail's leadership if we have a win total in the low 70s, but I still don't think it would be time to fire him. I want and expect to see a good team on the field next year, but ultimately we don't have to be an 80+ win team to still be in position to contend in 2011, which is when MacPhail's real final grades are due.

AM has to show that he will make some moves to help put us over the top...I am not saying 5 for 1 deals...But I do expect him to improve the team while focusing on the long term.

Signing Lackey and trading for Hardy are examples of what I am talking about..Doesn't have to be those 2 guys but something like it.

Working something out with Atlanta for Vazquez and Escobar would be another example.

I would expect him to get a solid starter and SS replacement this offseason...If the replacement is someone that doesn't get called up until mid season, that's fine but I do expect those 2 things.

[Sports Guy]

OK, great, you will be pretty happy. (Although I hope you realize that Hardy over Izturis isn't very likely to represent a huge increase in wins, since that's a big part of what you will be judging him on)So going into 2010 you're happy with that. Good to know. So if that team wins 74 games, you're going to criticize AM? Say he should be fired?

You are extremely wrong about this unless Hardy is as bad next year as he has been this year.

[JTrea81]

It is wrong on him to rely on them to win games, if his purpose is winning a bunch of games in 2010.

We have been evaluating...2008 we evaluated the minors mostly. 2009 it was both. Next year it will be 90% on the major league level.

You act as though we are moving at a snails pace, we really aren't.

By the end of 2010, there will be no excuses as to why we should go into 2011 with a hole unfilled. We will know what young guys will cut it, and which ones wont...As a result of that, we will know what holes we need to fill from outside the organization.

I just don't see the need to sign a Lackey when we won't compete, and who will keep us from getting a better look at other guys WHEN WE AREN'T COMPETING.

Now, if you want to "go for it" and trade guys for Gonzalez, sign Harden and Lackey, and trade for Hardy, then that is totally different.

But then you could have the prospects you keep here not pan out, the guys you trade pan out, with a payroll double what it should be, and no win increase because the young guys you kept were duds.

After 2010, we can keep the studs, not rely on the duds, and go get guys in the FA market and in trades to compliment the studs.

The point is I don't think you will see a proper evaluation of Matusz and Tillman etc, because they will be pitching not to lose, i.e. pitching scared.

They will know if they give up 4 runs, they are going to lose the game, so the pressure will be on to pitch perfectly. And that's when they start to make mistakes.

Now if you had a consistent offensive threat behind that pitcher, perhaps they could realize that if they made a mistake, the team would still be able to support them and rally back, so they would have the confidence to make their pitches and rely on the team to back them up.

And if they had somebody like Lackey, they would know that if the Orioles were in the midst of a losing streak, that it wouldn't necessarily have to fall to them on the day they had to face CC Sabathia for instance because they were looked on as the stopper. They could face a lesser pitcher in that matchup and have a better chance to win and leave it to Lackey to end the losing streak against Sabathia.

And those younger kids at the plate are going to press because they are going to be looked at as the offensive solution to back up those kid pitchers. If they don't perform, there's nobody else that will back them up as they are supposed to be the offensive force.

That's where I'm coming from. You can say that we need to see what we have, but if what we have is a bunch of shell shocked kids in the rotation and a bunch of guys pressing at the plate, that isn't going to bode well for future competition.

They need support to succeed, bottom line.

[ejf1025]

You are extremely wrong about this unless Hardy is as bad next year as he has been this year.

But is he wrong about this?

So going into 2010 you're happy with that. Good to know. So if that team wins 74 games, you're going to criticize AM? Say he should be fired?

[Mackus]

AM has to show that he will make some moves to help put us over the top...I am not saying 5 for 1 deals...But I do expect him to improve the team while focusing on the long term.

Signing Lackey and trading for Hardy are examples of what I am talking about..Doesn't have to be those 2 guys but something like it.

Working something out with Atlanta for Vazquez and Escobar would be another example.

I would expect him to get a solid starter and SS replacement this offseason...If the replacement is someone that doesn't get called up until mid season, that's fine but I do expect those 2 things.

I don't see the need to add a FA starter unless we're trading Guthrie, and I don't see them trading Guthrie because its stupid to sell low unless you think his value has already peaked and will only go lower, which I don't think is likely although it is possible. We'll have 4 spots in our rotation filled with 2nd year players (hell Matusz might still even be a rookie depending on how many innings he finishes with) and a couple more guys pretty close (Arrieta, Erbe, Patton, Johnson).

And an upgrade at SS would be nice if its available, but I don't think its necessary. I'm not sure Hardy is realistic, hopefully Escobar plays great and they try to trade Hardy rather than make him their 3B, but I could easily see him not being as readily available as many of us are hoping he is. If he is, I hope we get him, but again its not necessarily MacPhail's fault if he doesn't add him. And other than him, there is nobody available who we'd be better off with than Izturis at the MLB level (I don't believe ATL's Escobar will be moved).

[Sports Guy]

But is he wrong about this?

That Hardy isn't really any better than Izturis.

[Enjoy Terror]

They will know if they give up 4 runs, they are going to lose the game, so the pressure will be on to pitch perfectly. And that's when they start to make mistakes.

There are many liberties being taken here with this statement.

[tywright]

The point is I don't think you will see a proper evaluation of Matusz and Tillman etc, because they will be pitching not to lose, i.e. pitching scared.

They will know if they give up 4 runs, they are going to lose the game, so the pressure will be on to pitch perfectly. And that's when they start to make mistakes.

Now if you had a consistent offensive threat behind that pitcher, perhaps they could realize that if they made a mistake, the team would still be able to support them and rally back, so they would have the confidence to make their pitches and rely on the team to back them up.

And if they had somebody like Lackey, they would know that if the Orioles were in the midst of a losing streak, that it wouldn't necessarily have to fall to them on the day they had to face CC Sabathia for instance because they were looked on as the stopper. They could face a lesser pitcher in that matchup and have a better chance to win and leave it to Lackey to end the losing streak.

And those younger kids at the plate are going to press because they are going to be looked at as the offensive solution to back up those kid pitchers. If they don't perform, there's nobody else that will back them up as they are supposed to be the offensive force.

That's where I'm coming from. You can say that we need to see what we have, but if what we have is a bunch of shell shocked kids in the rotation, that isn't going to bode well for future competition.

They need support to succeed, bottom line.

You serious? You might want to review the history of Mike Mussina and his lack of run support.

[ejf1025]

That Hardy isn't really any better than Izturis.

What about his second question?

Minus Lackey...I think there is a pretty good chance you see just that team or a very close image of it next season.

I'd be very happy with that--regardless of record....

What will you say if that's a 70 win team?

[ejf1025]

I don't see the need to add a FA starter unless we're trading Guthrie, and I don't see them trading Guthrie because its stupid to sell low unless you think his value has already peaked and will only go lower, which I don't think is likely although it is possible. We'll have 4 spots in our rotation filled with 2nd year players (hell Matusz might still even be a rookie depending on how many innings he finishes with) and a couple more guys pretty close (Arrieta, Erbe, Patton, Johnson).

And an upgrade at SS would be nice if its available, but I don't think its necessary. I'm not sure Hardy is realistic, hopefully Escobar plays great and they try to trade Hardy rather than make him their 3B, but I could easily see him not being as readily available as many of us are hoping he is. If he is, I hope we get him, but again its not necessarily MacPhail's fault if he doesn't add him. And other than him, there is nobody available who we'd be better off with than Izturis at the MLB level (I don't believe ATL's Escobar will be moved).

I do agree with SG that a young SS solve should be in place tho...whether that player is a Hardy or Esscobar or a Bell-like prospect.

I guess he could resolve the issue next off-season, but I would be dissappointed not to see something before then.

[PitchingWins]

You're getting into deep waters if you are using this as your arugment now. Very deep waters. I'm throwing you a lifejacket as we speak...

Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, DH, BB...these guys are going to adjust their game because they are pitching scared, so we won't be able to properly evaluate them?

But wait...John Lackey is going to change all of that! With Lackey, these guys will totally be at ease, because they know we now have a guy with a 3.5-4 ERA instead of someone with a 5 ERA pitching every 5th day.

Of course, our offense next year even if we stand pat isn't likely to be worse this year because Huff and Mora were so awful, and Wieters can only go up. But wait a minute.....Isn't BB in the top 10 in the AL in ERA this year? How can that be if he's pitching scared? Forget BB predictions going forward, we can't evaluate him because he's pitching scared. Or maybe he wasn't pitching scared, he just had confidence in Eaton, Hendrickson, and Berken to be the stoppers this year.

Well now I think it's pretty unfair to say that a TOR starter isn't going to take some pressure off of the younger pitchers. Not to mention that it might shift some focus and some hopes onto a high dollar FA instead of a 2nd year pitcher. Similar to the what Nolan Reimold said about him coming up and being over shadowed by Wieters.