It's time for the next step

[tywright]

What about his second question?

Minus Lackey...I think there is a pretty good chance you see just that team or a very close image of it next season.

I'd be very happy with that--regardless of record....

What will you say if that's a 70 win team?

Well we're a 65 win team right now with a pythagorean W-L pct of .432 (70 wins). With most of young players improving next year, I'd fully expect us to be over 70 wins and improve our runs for/allowed differential by a good 30-40 runs. That should put us around 75 wins.

[JTrea81]

We have one long term hole on this team right now....SS. That's the only hole that needs to be filled going into next season, and if it isn't, we still have all of 2010 going into 2011 to get the proper piece to play on our contending teams.

People have been up in arms for 2 years now saying we need a LT answer at 3B. Well guess what, we got one, and our bullpen hasn't suffered one bit. After July 30th, no one's said a peep about that. But coming into this year, that was a big negative on AM's resume, failing to address 3B.

The jury is still out on Brandon Snyder, as he's yet to show consistent power or patience at AAA. It will take him awhile to adapt to the majors, so while we have a LT solution, it's hardly ML ready and likely won't be until 2011.

I agree Bell was a fantastic acquisition, but it is likely going to take him awhile to adjust to the majors as well...

[ejf1025]

Well we're a 65 win team right now with a pythagorean W-L pct of .432 (70 wins). With most of young players improving next year, I'd fully expect us to be over 70 wins and improve our runs for/allowed differential by a good 30-40 runs. That should put us around 75 wins.

Yep...I'm down for improvement. I dont think we'll be worse next year. Just don't think we'll be all that good.

I'm not tethered to .500.

[Fan4Life]

This is a great post, and is a change from your tune earlier in this thread.

Next year matters a lot as far as developing and separating the guys that are for real and who will help us in the future in our contending years, and separating the guys that will not, or who may but we can't really count on.

It is very reasonable to expect that the increase in talent will equal more wins. But if it doesn't, and the talent still improves as the year goes on, and we are in great position going into the 2010-2011 offseason, then the plan hasn't changed or gone backward one bit.

It's reasonable to expect more wins, but wins are far from the deciding factor in determining whether next year is a success or failure.

Is it reasonable to expect contention the very next season after having separated the real deals from the pretenders? Seems like this usually takes an extra season to get the pretenders replacements in place and producing.

[tywright]

The jury is still out on Brandon Snyder, as he's yet to show consistent power or patience at AAA. It will take him awhile to adapt to the majors, so while we have a LT solution, it's hardly ML ready and likely won't be until 2011.

Well he has more HRs than Smoak this year Plus Snyder is playing in Norfolk, which you know fully well is not a hitter's park.

Wait until we see what Snyder can do in his 2nd AFL season.

[JTrea81]

It's absurd to say that you can not properly evaluate the pitchers if they don't have an ace right now.

We don't have an ace now! Tillman is pitching no worse than a league average starter during his first 6 starts, that's promising right? Or can we not evaluate him because he's shaking in his shoes thinking about how we don't have a stopper.

IT'S NOT ABOUT WINNING! This year isn't, and next year shouldn't be! I mean, we are going to try to win, and try to be competitive, because you play to win the game.

But there shouldn't be pressure on them to get to a certain mark.

It's not just an ace, but a consistant offensive threat as well. The younger pitchers need support in the rotation and at the plate to back them up. We've got a lot riding on their development, so you'd think that the Orioles would want to support them as much as they could instead of just throwing them to the wolves.

I agree it's not about winning, neccessarily but more about building confidence, with themselves and their abilities, and their teammates to be able to support them when they need it.

[tywright]

Yep...I'm down for improvement. I dont think we'll be worse next year. Just don't think we'll be all that good.

I'm not tethered to .500.

The only way we will be 85-90 win "good" is if Matusz and Tillman make huge strides next year. If they can both be sub 4.00 ERA with another pitcher (Bergesen) providing another solid IP eater, we may have something.

The whole issue is how quickly will these prospects develop and to what extent. None of us will know until it actually happens. Until then we can only project. In the meantime, we need to fill holes (SS) and acquire depth (1B/3B) to be able to compete at a 85-90 win level for 2011.

[JTrea81]

My point is, AM isn't going to go out and actively look for a long term 1B or a big bat 1B right now. In other words, you can't criticize him for not addressing 1B this offseason. You agree with that?

And Synder will undoubtedly be up by June 2010.

I wouldn't bet on that last statement because, unless he has a remarkable improvement, Snyder could spend the majority of 2010 in AAA, you just don't know.

In otherwords, I don't count on Brandon Snyder to be my LT 1B man nor do I count on Josh Bell at 3B. I acquire support for the players that are already on the roster and need it to succeed, and if those two develop, it's a bonus and I deal with a surplus at that time.

[ejf1025]

The only way we will be 85-90 win "good" is if Matusz and Tillman make huge strides next year. If they can both be sub 4.00 ERA with another pitcher (Bergesen) providing another solid IP eater, we may have something.

The whole issue is how quickly will these prospects develop and to what extent. None of us will know until it actually happens. Until then we can only project. In the meantime, we need to fill holes (SS) and acquire depth (1B/3B) to be able to compete at a 85-90 win level for 2011.

I agree...I can't tell if you are just agreeing with me or there is a point of contention.

I will say I don't think 1B/3B is that big a deal...a nice glove like Kotchman could be nice. But with Bell/Snyder/Warring/Wigginton/Scott we should have enough there.

SS, we are agreed.

[Fan4Life]

Of course it is reasonable if we also address the areas of need that are vacated by the pretenders.

I did this in response to Mackus but will go at it again with a proposed team going forward in 2011.

OK...let's say Matusz, Arrieta, and BB establish themselves in that order as a #2, borderline #2-#3, and a #3.

Let's say Synder is a total dud in the minors, non factor going forward. DH goes to the pen and dominates, Ray falls on his face while costing us games in April/May, then is DFA'd. Kam and JJ continue pitching great.

Wieters improves and is the real deal, Bell shows he will be an above average power hitting 3B. Reimold stays like he is, an inconsistent Luke Scott type player. Pie regresses and we cut ties.

So going into 2011, we have...

C: Wieters

1B:

2B: Roberts

SS:

3B: Bell

RF: Markakis

CF: Jones

LF: Reimold

DH: Scott

SP:

SP: Matusz

SP: Arrieta

SP: Bergesen

SP:

RP: JJ

RP: Kam

RP: DH

RP: Erbe

OK...this is what we are looking at, and we have a ton of cash for 2011. So Tillman is hurt, non factor...We have 3 solid pitchers in the rotation. Time to go get a big time guy like a Halladay. OK, we sign Halladay for 6/115. We sign Carlos Pena because we need a 1B. Maybe we trade for a young SS using Koji or Guthrie by the deadline next season?

The difference is, the guys we are bringing back are all sure things. The guys we are bringing in are sure things, elite difference makers.

Next year if we sign guys, we have elite difference makers mixed in with talented question marks. We need to figure out who is a sure thing and compliment them.

Can't argue with that. As long as you fill the new holes with proven talent, 2011 is a contention year.

[JTrea81]

We just traded the most valuable reliever at the deadline for Josh Bell who arguably is a top 5 3B prospect in baseball right now. So you're saying he should go out and get a 3B longterm and block Bell?

Bell is going to have a learning curve. I want him ML ready before he comes up.

You can acquire a Chone Figgins for example, and still have flexibility to move him when Bell is aready around the diamond or in a trade. Don't forget we are going to lose Wigginton after 2010.

You've just got to be creative. If you just keep getting stopgaps and depend on the young talent to replace those stopgaps, and the talent doesn't pan out, you are worse off than if you "blocked" that player with a premium talent that is helping your younger talent win games.

[ejf1025]

By the way....If we aren't going to compete next year, and we all know and accept that...Doesn't it make alot more sense to see what we have and then fill the holes, as opposed to guessing as to where the holes will be all while improving by 3-5 wins in 2010?

What if 5 of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Guthrie, Berken, DH, and BB establish themselves as above average starters in 2010, a year in which we aren't competing but evaluating.

Then we don't need Lackey, obviously, for 5/85 or a similar deal.

At a same time, what if Synder crashes and burns, and neither Reimold nor Scott can handle 1B? I bet we'd want that 85 million back to put towards a Pena type guy or another power hitting 1B, right?

Or at the same time, maybe we have 5 starters, Synder is a slightly above average 1B, and Adam Jones suffers a career ending injury...Bet we'd like to have that money to go after a CF'er.

Again, if we were going full court to win next year, Lackey would make sense, even though the concept wouldn't.

But we need to be patient, sit back and enjoy watching a ton of young talent on the field, and make the moves in the 2010-2011 offseason to make us legitimate contenders for the forseeable future.

But Andy McPhail said he expects us to be better next year....we HAVE to break .500....

[Fan4Life]

By the way....If we aren't going to compete next year, and we all know and accept that...Doesn't it make alot more sense to see what we have and then fill the holes, as opposed to guessing as to where the holes will be all while improving by 3-5 wins in 2010?

What if 5 of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Guthrie, Berken, DH, and BB establish themselves as above average starters in 2010, a year in which we aren't competing but evaluating.

Then we don't need Lackey, obviously, for 5/85 or a similar deal.

At a same time, what if Synder crashes and burns, and neither Reimold nor Scott can handle 1B? I bet we'd want that 85 million back to put towards a Pena type guy or another power hitting 1B, right?

Or at the same time, maybe we have 5 starters, Synder is a slightly above average 1B, and Adam Jones suffers a career ending injury...Bet we'd like to have that money to go after a CF'er.

Again, if we were going full court to win next year, Lackey would make sense, even though the concept wouldn't.

But we need to be patient, sit back and enjoy watching a ton of young talent on the field, and make the moves in the 2010-2011 offseason to make us legitimate contenders for the forseeable future.

All good points, but to me, the only way adding a Lackey is a problem is if he doesn't produce. Adding him gives us more room for error and if that error doesn't occur it gives us more flexibility from which to fill the holes we're talking about.

[tywright]

I agree...I can't tell if you are just agreeing with me or there is a point of contention.

I will say I don't think 1B/3B is that big a deal...a nice glove like Kotchman could be nice. But with Bell/Snyder/Warring/Wigginton/Scott we should have enough there.

SS, we are agreed.

My only contention is that "good" is a relative term. I think our progress has us aimed for a 75-80 win year next year with upside of .500 if our rookies progress quicker. Now that doesn't make us a "good" team in relation to the contenders, but it does mean we are making good progress. Even if we traded for an Adrian Gonzalez, that doesn't necessarily mean we will be "good" in 2010 or 2011. It just means we're impatient and are selling our prospect portfolio too early.

As for finding a young SS, I don't necessarily think that's a good idea when you are fielding a young team. A veteran SS like Izturis provides stability in your defense/lineup and we can't afford to have a young SS making dumb mistakes regularly.

[Sports Guy]

Bell is going to have a learning curve. I want him ML ready before he comes up.

You can acquire a Chone Figgins for example, and still have flexibility to move him when Bell is aready around the diamond or in a trade. Don't forget we are going to lose Wigginton after 2010.

You've just got to be creative. If you just keep getting stopgaps and depend on the young talent to replace those stopgaps, and the talent doesn't pan out, you are worse off than if you "blocked" that player with a premium talent that is helping your younger talent win games.

No you can't....Figgins going to second isn't happening..Figgins going to CF isn't going to happen.