It's time for the next step

[Sports Guy]

No reason this can't happen. The pitching would be a lot better without Eaton, Hendrickson, and Simon burning up starts, and instead getting full seasons of Bergy, Tillman, Hernandez and Matusz. That could equate to at least 10-15 more wins, improvements to the lineup notwithstanding.

I agree but some people are jumping on Jtrea for wanting exactly this and that is wrong.

We should all be wanting and expecting a 500+ team next year....Again, this is what our GM is basically saying...So, if he is saying it and he believes it, why shouldn't the fans?

[Mackus]

Are you Glaus's dad or something?This guy is like Sexton he's washed up to say the least.Bell will be the starter at 3B coming out of ST.

How do you know? He had the best season he's had in the past 5 years or so in 2008. He's been out hurt all year, but he was good enough last year that the Cardinals picked up his $12.5M option for 2009.

I don't know the extent of his injury, and there are some indicators that show he has been declining even before it, but to say he's "washed up to say the least" is pretty premature at this point.

He's a risk, for sure, but if he passes the physical tests any team signing him will be sure to give him, then he has the potential to be a very nice success for someone. And it might be possible to get him on a 1-year deal that is heavily based on incentives given his medical situation.

[JTrea81]

Jtrea, I couldn't dissagree with you more.

Do you think A. Gonzalez is like some combination of Ruth and Koufax?

The guy has be a consistant 3-4 Wins above Replacement. We are 27.5 Games out of 1st place. Your trading away young talent (a ton if it) for 3-4 more wins. That is beyond reckless.

As I've pointed out numerous times, it doesn't have to be AGon, just that he seems to be the most realistic option given MacPhail's penchant for not pursuing top FA talent aggressively and the lack of attraction of Baltimore for top FAs.

However if he's willing to blow Holliday out of the water for example with a FA deal. I'm all for it.

Or if he can swing a deal to bring in Beltran or somebody else, that's great too. We just need more established, consistent offensive support and more pitching support for our younger guys so that they can develop the way we want them too IMO. They need support to succeed.

It's not about competing in 2010, rather giving our young guys the support so they can show what they have instead of being pressured to carry the team and providing a less than desirable result. You take the pressure off them so they can just go out and perform and then they can get confidence in their abilities. And you surround them with guys that are used to winning and want to win so they will get a winning attitude as well.

[atom_25]

I disagree with the premise of this thread. I really don't think it is time for a 'next step' per say. This team still has too many holes to reasonably think we are going to be playoff contenders next season. Give the young talent time to show what they have and develop. As much as it seems like beating the dead horse after a decade plus of loosing I think it is the right thing to do.

That said, next season is pivotal. You do not want to bring up all your young talent and for them to get used to loosing. IMO the O's have the makings of a good team with their current core. Let them all show what they have, bring up the next wave and see where we are at at the end of next season. Hopefully and likely (again imo) they should be somewhere around .500, and showing all the signs of a team on the rise should be displaying.

[ejf1025]

There is some level of validity in there though.

You have committed to certain guys and if you aren't going to get to the level of contention with those guys, then why sign them to begin with?

Let's look at BRob...I think we all agree that the best years of his contract are likely to be the first 2...with him tailing off in the second 2.

Well, if you aren't putting a contender on the field in those first 2 years, what exactly was the point of re-signing him?

You re-signed him so that he could be a big piece for your 2010-2011 seasons, when you expect to take major leaps..If you aren't taking those leaps in those years, then the BRob contract ends up pointless.

You have a little more time with Markakis obviously but still, you don't want to wait until year 4 or 5 of that contract to start contending.

Of course it's ideal to contend sooner rather then later. I don't want to get into yet another Roberts' extension debate--clearly McPhail felt Roberts would be living up to expectations in years 3-4 (you obviously disagree, altho he could also trade Roberts if things go South quick)....

Nobody is advocating giving McPhail 10 years to get things done--we're just saying it doesn't have to be the fall/winter of 2009.

The point is simply that there is no immediate urgency that should cause us to jettison multiple young, talented, contractually-controlled players before we have any idea just how good or bad some of them are.

It is so EXTREMELY early to talk about trading Tillman/Matusz/Snyder/Erbe/Bell it's ridiculous. When you have been this bad you need to continue to stockpile talent until you have reliable pieces in place. THEN you can talk about major trades.

It is simply bad business to impose upon yourself unrealistic deadlines before you have a gauge of your assets true value. This is simply a case of impatience.

[Mackus]

Of course it's ideal to contend sooner rather then later. I don't want to get into yet another Roberts' extension debate--clearly McPhail felt Roberts would be living up to expectations in years 3-4 (you obviously disagree, altho he could also trade Roberts if things go South quick)....

Nobody is advocating giving McPhail 10 years to get things done--we're just saying it doesn't have to be the fall/winter of 2009.

The point is simply that there is no immediate urgency that should cause us to jettison multiple young, talented, contractually-controlled players before we have any idea just how good or bad some of them are.

It is so EXTREMELY early to talk about trading Tillman/Matusz/Snyder/Erbe/Bell it's ridiculous. When you have been this bad you need to continue to stockpile talent until you have reliable pieces in place. THEN you can talk about major trades.

It is simply bad business to impose upon yourself unrealistic deadlines before you have a gauge of your assets true value. This is simply a case of impatience.

Agree with all of this except that Roberts most likely won't be able to be traded. He'll have a partial no-trade in 2010 (8 teams) and 2011 (12 teams) and then full NTC in 2012 (contractual) and 2013 (10-and-5 rights).

[Enjoy Terror]

You have committed to certain guys and if you aren't going to get to the level of contention with those guys, then why sign them to begin with?

Here's a dumb analogy:

Let's say you want to build a skyscraper in quicksand and you want to build it 1000 feet tall. If you are sinking at 100 per year, but building at 200 feet per year, after ten years you will eventually get to where you need to be, but at the expense of 1000 feet of building under the sand.

At the time the Orioles signed Nick to six years, he was the foundation and that's all we had. Two hundred feet of building, and far from our goal. At the end of six years, the Orioles may still have a season or two of building before we get to where we need to be, but just because Markakis is under the sand at that point doesn't mean we didn't need him to be where we are today.

In the war of player attrition as long as you are building faster than you are sinking you will reach your goal. Nick Markakis was signed long term so we wouldn't have to worry about right field in the near future. That doesn't mean that the Orioles will be done with their plan by the time Nick Markakis' contract is up.

[Sports Guy]

Of course it's ideal to contend sooner rather then later. I don't want to get into yet another Roberts' extension debate--clearly McPhail felt Roberts would be living up to expectations in years 3-4 (you obviously disagree, altho he could also trade Roberts if things go South quick)....

There is nothing to get into in terms of a debate here...The bottom line is as an aging player, you would expect him to be better in his low 30s than his mid 30s...Because of that, you only sign him if you feel that you are going to be able to contend with him while he is doing very well...You don't sign him for 4 years and 40 million dollars. to hope to contend for 1 or maybe 2 of the final year(s) of the contract. That just isn't logical

Nobody is advocating giving McPhail 10 years to get things done--we're just saying it doesn't have to be the fall/winter of 2009.

Again, I am stating what AM has said...So, you either are syaing you don't believe him or that he is unrealistic. You have to show any reason why we shouldn't legitimately expect a 500 or better team next year...I am not saying contending, I am talking about a team that doesn't go through 5 horrendous stretches a year...A team that doesn't collapse at the end of the season...A team that is competitive on a nightly basis...A team that doesn't look completely overmatched against the big boys...If you think that is an unrealistic expectation, then I don't know what to tell you. If that's not what you expect, you must have a pretty low opinion of AM and the players on the current team.

The point is simply that there is no immediate urgency that should cause us to jettison multiple young, talented, contractually-controlled players before we have any idea just how good or bad some of them are.

It is so EXTREMELY early to talk about trading Tillman/Matusz/Snyder/Erbe/Bell it's ridiculous. When you have been this bad you need to continue to stockpile talent until you have reliable pieces in place. THEN you can talk about major trades.

Fine but only a few are saying this...Get past that to the idea of 500 ior better next year doing other things...Again, its incredibly realistic to expect that.

[LookinUp]

Andy McPhail's job is to fix the organization, not to field a team for any one season or 2-3 year stretch. He's doing that by adding young talent throughout the organization, focusing on developing that talent and removing bad contracts. He needs to continue, and he knows not to trade away the core of his plan (young talent).

With that being said, I think I have a useful compromise for many on this site. I don't think AM will do it, but it's an idea.

The O's need leadership for their young pitching and young hitting. I think we can solve that with two major signings: Lackey and Thome/Abreu. I think Thome and Abreu in particular would provide the necessary leadership by example that this lineup needs to succeed. Thome would also provide some nice power.

This keeps our young core in tact and doesn't block the young position players.

[Mackus]

Andy McPhail's job is to fix the organization, not to field a team for any one season or 2-3 year stretch. He's doing that by adding young talent throughout the organization, focusing on developing that talent and removing bad contracts. He needs to continue, and he knows not to trade away the core of his plan (young talent).

I agree with this. We want to be the Red Sox, not the Tigers.

[ejf1025]

There is nothing to get into in terms of a debate here...The bottom line is as an aging player, you would expect him to be better in his low 30s than his mid 30s...Because of that, you only sign him if you feel that you are going to be able to contend with him while he is doing very well...You don't sign him for 4 years and 40 million dollars. to hope to contend for 1 or maybe 2 of the final year(s) of the contract. That just isn't logical

Again, I am stating what AM has said...So, you either are syaing you don't believe him or that he is unrealistic. You have to show any reason why we shouldn't legitimately expect a 500 or better team next year...I am not saying contending, I am talking about a team that doesn't go through 5 horrendous stretches a year...A team that doesn't collapse at the end of the season...A team that is competitive on a nightly basis...A team that doesn't look completely overmatched against the big boys...If you think that is an unrealistic expectation, then I don't know what to tell you. If that's not what you expect, you must have a pretty low opinion of AM and the players on the current team.

Fine but only a few are saying this...Get past that to the idea of 500 ior better next year doing other things...Again, its incredibly realistic to expect that.

We've had this debate before. If everything goes right, this team could be .500 or better next year as currently constructed.

But logic would also dictate that a bunch of rookies and 1-year vets are not going to be consistent, will have bad stretches, will fail to reach expectations and will look overmatched against the big boys. It just happens.

With that being the case, I'm not going to set some WIN% barometer that could very well not be met. If they fail to break .500 but let the young players grow and we see progress, I'm not going to have a meltdown.

It's just a pointless metric to apply when you consider just how young and unproven our talent actually is. Even if we stand absolutely pat (which I don't think we will), this team is solidly built to develop into a contender in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Yes, pieces need to be added but to start setting a .500+ or bust ultimatum or to consider jettisoning off 4-5 prospects is just silly.

[Sports Guy]

We've had this debate before. If everything goes right, this team could be .500 or better next year as currently constructed.

But logic would also dictate that a bunch of rookies and 1-year vets are not going to be consistent, will have bad stretches, will fail to reach expectations and will look overmatched against the big boys. It just happens.

With that being the case, I'm not going to set some WIN% barometer that could very well not be met. If they fail to break .500 but let the young players grow and we see progress, I'm not going to have a meltdown.

It's just a pointless metric to apply when you consider just how young and unproven our talent actually is. Even if we stand absolutely pat (which I don't think we will), this team is solidly built to develop into a contender in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Yes, pieces need to be added but to start setting a .500+ or bust ultimatum or to consider jettisoning off 4-5 prospects is just silly.

You are having 2 different discussions again...I am saying the expectation should be that...if you feel that is too much then oh well..You are wrong but whatever.

[Mackus]

You are having 2 different discussions again...I am saying the expectation should be that...if you feel that is too much then oh well..You are wrong but whatever.

I agree that .500 is a reasonable goal for next year, and even more reasonable if we add a big SP. I know ejf is thinking a bit more pessimistically for next season, but I do expect pretty big improvements out of a lot of our 2nd year players and I don't think Nick will have such a down first half as he did this season.

[ejf1025]

You are having 2 different discussions again...I am saying the expectation should be that...if you feel that is too much then oh well..You are wrong but whatever.

What on earth? Wow, you're such a jackass...

You changed the topic. I was and have been talking about how we don't need to go out and force things...how I'm happy with the talent...how some type of stupid move for AGon or whoever lacks foresight. This was all directed to Trea and those of similar thoughts.

If you want to change the subject to what our expectations should be fine...we can talk about that. But don't start quoting my other conversation and act like I'm talking in double-speak.

You have some stupid # in your head, some barometer founded in nothing but your impatient expectations as a fan...if the team is constructed well (which it is) it makes no difference to me if they finish with 85 wins or 75 wins in 2010. The records in 2011 and 2012 are different stories.

My expectation for 2010 is for them to let Bell/Snyder play, keep the rotation as is with a possible exception of one legit pitcher (and Lackey's not going to happen, so that expectation is--as you like to put it--"wrong"), find a SS solution and make bullpen additions. That's my expectation. Could that team win +.500 maybe...I don't think they will, they'll come close. But that's an argument I care less about and one that is pretty much pointless when you consider the construct of the team.

[ejf1025]

I agree that .500 is a reasonable goal for next year, and even more reasonable if we add a big SP. I know ejf is thinking a bit more pessimistically for next season, but I do expect pretty big improvements out of a lot of our 2nd year players and I don't think Nick will have such a down first half as he did this season.

That's fine. But implied in his ".500 goal" is the idea that McPhail has not done his job if we don't reach it.

Which is flawed, considering that in all likelihood he is going to put a lineup out there on OD (or shortly after depending on Bell/Snyder) that could meet those expectations.

The rest relies on player development...I'm pessimistic, he's optimisitc....but he's trying to make it a formula .500+ = success for AM, -.500 = failure for AM. That's BS.