It's time for the next step

[Sports Guy]

Yes. This is and what ejf said is what I said in that thread where people were saying AM should be fired if the team isn't .500 next year.

If AM has followed the direction you've wanted, and basically put the team you want on the field, and then to say he's failed and should be fired if they don't go .500 is interesting. If someone falls into that group, they better be willing to also say "I didn't know what I was talking about either."

I think it would be foolish to fire or even blame him if the team wins say 75 games next year, but with a team that was constructed the right way.

Sometimes things just don't pan out the way you'd like, and that's not necessarily the GM's fault. If Wieters never becomes an above average player, is that AM's fault? Same with various other top young players that we're almost all high on?

He has followed most of what I would do..No dumb contracts, rely on trades, sell guys at their highest value,etc...

However, none of that means he will finish the job and do what it takes to put us over the top in this division...His ways and philosophies work in every other division in baseball...But in our division, he needs to do things that he normally wouldn't like.

Again, I expect this team to be much more competitive next year and by them being competitive and winning more games, it should put them around 500...That isn't some unreasonable expectation and I think it is perfectly reasonable to start questioning AM's ability to put us over the top if we see another 70 win team next year(unless there are some crazy circumstances).

[Sports Guy]

Haha, that's pretty funny.

Well SG did back off from the statement about firing AM if they don't go .500 next year. Although, I don't think he answered yours or Ravenbirds questions in this thread regarding finishing with 70-74 wins.

Of course I answered it and I have answered before...i am looking for AM to put a team on the field capable of being 500 or better...Not 500 or better if everyone has a career year and there are a lot of things that go wrong for everyone else...That's the B and F way of building a team.

If AM does do that and the young guys don't develop, guys get hurt, etc...then you can't hold that against him.

But this is why I feel they need to upgrade SS...Why they need to add a solid starter..And maybe add another CI/DH type guy depending on Bell, Snyder and Pie and what you do with those guys.

BTW, yes, I would consider 2-3 wins a pretty big difference...That's a 10-15 million dollar player difference. It all adds up.

[Sports Guy]

EJF...I have a question for you since you seem to have some of the lowest expectations for next year of anyone on here....What do you expect our win total to be next year, assuming that the team we have now is basically what we will have next year.

[mweb]

He has followed most of what I would do..No dumb contracts, rely on trades, sell guys at their highest value,etc...

However, none of that means he will finish the job and do what it takes to put us over the top in this division...His ways and philosophies work in every other division in baseball...But in our division, he needs to do things that he normally wouldn't like.

Again, I expect this team to be much more competitive next year and by them being competitive and winning more games, it should put them around 500...That isn't some unreasonable expectation and I think it is perfectly reasonable to start questioning AM's ability to put us over the top if we see another 70 win team next year(unless there are some crazy circumstances).

No, it doesn't mean he will finish the job, I agree and said as much in one of the recent AM threads. That will be the moment of truth.

However, I don't feel like this off-season is that moment. Obviously what he does and doesn't do should be evaluated, but I don't think this is an off-season where he needs to be doing anything drastic to try to ensure more wins next year.

There are guys I'd be interested in this off-season if I were GM, but I can see why AM wouldn't go after them, and I would be content with going with the young guys next year.

If the team only wins 70-75 games next year, and it's not due to injuries, yes, that's a reason to be concerned. That low win total in all likelyhood would mean the young players didn't develop as we had hoped they would to that point.

I wouldn't blame AM much for that though, nor would that make me question his ability to put us over the top. The latter because if the young players don't develop enough, AM won't have the chance to put the team over the top since it won't even be on the verge.

Now how he'd react to a disappointing progression of the young talent would be key, although it would be very difficult to build a contender soon if much of the young talent doesn't pan out.

However, we need to have the patience to understand that not everyone who turns into good players, is one in their first year or two.

[mweb]

Of course I answered it and I have answered before...i am looking for AM to put a team on the field capable of being 500 or better...Not 500 or better if everyone has a career year and there are a lot of things that go wrong for everyone else...That's the B and F way of building a team.

If AM does do that and the young guys don't develop, guys get hurt, etc...then you can't hold that against him.

But this is why I feel they need to upgrade SS...Why they need to add a solid starter..And maybe add another CI/DH type guy depending on Bell, Snyder and Pie and what you do with those guys.

BTW, yes, I would consider 2-3 wins a pretty big difference...That's a 10-15 million dollar player difference. It all adds up.

I'm not saying you didn't address it before, but you did ignore their direct questions in this thread while at times saying things that may have given them an impression of your answer. But anyway, that's fine, I don't have an issue with your thought process that you explained here.

Like you, I want Hardy, but unlike you, I'm not willing to say he or Escobar is needed. That's because we don't know what is needed to get them, and we do have a pretty good SS signed for next year.

I think it's also too much to say we need to add a solid starter. But of course I've often knocked your use of the word need since it's simply too strong of a word to throw out there imo.

I wasn't saying 2-3 wins isn't a big difference, which is a little optimistic imo, I was just saying you shouldn't be telling him he's way off base when you had no clue what he meant by huge difference in wins. At one position, yeah, that's a big deal, but in the standings for next season, a likely non-contending one at that, I wouldn't call it huge.

[McNulty]

EJF...I have a question for you since you seem to have some of the lowest expectations for next year of anyone on here....What do you expect our win total to be next year, assuming that the team we have now is basically what we will have next year.

What he's saying is that as long as the things he's laid out are acccomplished (which is almost the same as you did), the win total is mostly irrelevant. I agree.

[Sports Guy]

What he's saying is that as long as the things he's laid out are acccomplished (which is almost the same as you did), the win total is mostly irrelevant. I agree.

Yea, I disagree with that...At some point, the wins start to matter...Next year is that point.

[McNulty]

Yea, I disagree with that...At some point, the wins start to matter...Next year is that point.

I think as long as we get continued growth out of our youngsters, both position and pitcher, along with figuring out something for SS, I'll be good regardless. I do think the win/loss is essential for Trembley though, assuming he comes back.

[Sports Guy]

I think as long as we get continued growth out of our youngsters, both position and pitcher, along with figuring out something for SS, I'll be good regardless. I do think the win/loss is essential for Trembley though, assuming he comes back.

Unless we have injuries, do you think we could have continued growth next year from all of those guys and not have a lot more wins?

[mweb]

Unless we have injuries, do you think we could have continued growth next year from all of those guys and not have a lot more wins?

Certainly not. However, some injuries are to be expected, and it's unlikely all of those guys will progress the way we want.

[clarence]

What young pitchers have walked into the ALEast and dominated right off the bat? Next year is still going to be a year when all of our young starters are going to have us thinking playoffs one night, and wondering why we placed so much hope on the "Big 3" the next. Why would we assume that our rotation isn't still going to be the fifth best in the division when the season starts? 2010 is still a rebuilding year in every sense of the word.

[connja]

I don't see us going big into free agency this year. We need to take our lumps for one more year and find out if these young guys are what we think they can be. Then we go big into free agency in 2011, which I believe will be a much better free agent class than 2010. There is really no difference makers in this year's free agent class at the positions we need.

[McNulty]

Unless we have injuries, do you think we could have continued growth next year from all of those guys and not have a lot more wins?

Anything is possible in this division. I'd expect to have more but who knows. We could improve by a bunch in pythag and it might not show up in the win/loss column. I guess all I'm saying is that I don't want to put that kind of a qualifier on it (near or above 500).

A losing season next year isn't going to preclude a big leap in 2011 from happening (see: Rays, 2008).

[Sports Guy]

Anything is possible in this division. I'd expect to have more but who knows. We could improve by a bunch in pythag and it might not show up in the win/loss column. I guess all I'm saying is that I don't want to put that kind of a qualifier on it (near or above 500).

A losing season next year isn't going to preclude a big leap in 2011 from happening (see: Rays, 2008).

But is it realistic to expect a 20 win jump from one year to the next?

[mweb]

But is it realistic to expect a 20 win jump from one year to the next?

Sorry for answering for him, but it's a lot more realistic than normal when a team has a ton of top young talent, many of whom have yet to come close to fully realizing their potential, and then the GM supplements that talent with a couple impact players. Obviously the latter is not a given, but fits in with the plan.