2010 Draft Position Race

[ChaosLex]

Cleveland 61 82 .427

Baltimore 58 85 .406

Kansas City 57 86 .399

Pittsburgh 55 87 .387

Washington 50 93 .350

[QBsILLEST1]

Oh so close. Itll be interesting to see who JJ values here. As much as I want one of these HS kids, it may make most sense to take Pomeranz or Ranaudo since theyll both be up so much quicker.

[allstar1579]

Oh so close. Itll be interesting to see who JJ values here. As much as I want one of these HS kids, it may make most sense to take Pomeranz or Ranaudo since theyll both be up so much quicker.

Who are you going to bump out of the rotation if you take one of them to be up so soon? Matusz? Tillman? Bergy? Hobgood? Erbe?

Not saying if a college pitcher is the best pick at the time not to take one, but I would rather go HS pitcher or college bat. That being said of course the pick is best available, but that's my preference depending on ratings at draft time.

[BringBackMagic]

- Washington will draft Harper. Washington handled Strasburg and Boras admirably, and it was all the media who kept throwing up red flags about negotiations. He's not 5 years away, at least that's what they hope. He's got an advanced body and skills for a catcher. He'll hit his way through the minors and could be ready in 2-3 years even if his defense is still developing.

I'll just say that only time will prove who's correct regarding whether or not the Nats will draft Harper. But to say that he will be ML read in 2-3 years is a long shot.

Have you seen some of the reports coming out of camps? Yes, he has ML power and bat speed, but he has no patience for pitchers trying to pitch around him. He won't take a walk and he's hacking every time up.

Having ML power and have a ML approach are completely different. With his rep coming in, he'll be pitched around from the day he enters any system and will be forced to change his approach. He can't try to mash every fastball 500 feet. I can't find any writeups that discuss his ability to handle quality off-speed and breaking pitches.

Harper could develop into a Mike Piazza type bat, that's if he stays behind the plate. He could move to a corner infield spot where his value decreases significantly as that type of power is expected.

If he remains a catcher, there is no chance he's up by the time he's 19 or 20. Consider Matt Wieters, who had three years of experience catching in the ACC before being drafted, spent a year and 2 months in the minors before getting called up. That's 4 1/2 years between HS and the pros, and Wieters didn't get his GED and play JUCO. The reason repeatedly given for holding Wieters down as long as he was was due to him needing more time to get accustomed to calling games. We know he had a great arm and could block balls in the dirt, but it's the cerebral part of the game that was just as important as his stick.

I can't imagine Harper being ready to handle ML pitchers at 20-21 years old.

[QBsILLEST1]

I dunnno who we'd bump out, but it depends who we have in the rotation and how well they are pitching. But at the time Pomeranz or Ranaudo would be ready for the ML, Britton would be getting his time in the rotation, Hobgood would be on his way up or there already, and also, Henry, Tolliver and Cowan would either be ready or close to ready. I see what your saying, I would love to get a HS arm from this class, but Brentz wouldnt be bad either. But BPA we will have a lot of options to choose from, but right now its impossible to tell who will be BPA, theres some other HS kids that could jump out in front of Cole, Bedrosian and Taillon as well. I dunno, I guess IM just fishing for any type of discussion on the upcoming draft....

[BringBackMagic]

I dunnno who we'd bump out, but it depends who we have in the rotation and how well they are pitching. But at the time Pomeranz or Ranaudo would be ready for the ML, Britton would be getting his time in the rotation, Hobgood would be on his way up or there already, and also, Henry, Tolliver and Cowan would either be ready or close to ready. I see what your saying, I would love to get a HS arm from this class, but Brentz wouldnt be bad either. But BPA we will have a lot of options to choose from, but right now its impossible to tell who will be BPA, theres some other HS kids that could jump out in front of Cole, Bedrosian and Taillon as well. I dunno, I guess IM just fishing for any type of discussion on the upcoming draft....

While I like what I've read about Brentz, I don't know if he's worth a top 5 pick with all of these arms available. Here's the question, is Brentz = to Ackley? Ackley was considered a sure thing, only a year or two away from breaking onto an OD roster. While Brentz isn't a CF (and time will tell whether or not Ackley sticks there himself) the question remains is he worth such a lofty selection. The MLB Draft is all about value. While Brentz may be the position player closest to a sure thing, is that of greater or lesser value then a close to sure thing college arm or a huge upside, high risk HS arm?

I'm not saying one way or another, just begging the question.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'll just say that only time will prove who's correct regarding whether or not the Nats will draft Harper. But to say that he will be ML read in 2-3 years is a long shot.

Have you seen some of the reports coming out of camps? Yes, he has ML power and bat speed, but he has no patience for pitchers trying to pitch around him. He won't take a walk and he's hacking every time up.

Having ML power and have a ML approach are completely different. With his rep coming in, he'll be pitched around from the day he enters any system and will be forced to change his approach. He can't try to mash every fastball 500 feet. I can't find any writeups that discuss his ability to handle quality off-speed and breaking pitches.

Harper could develop into a Mike Piazza type bat, that's if he stays behind the plate. He could move to a corner infield spot where his value decreases significantly as that type of power is expected.

If he remains a catcher, there is no chance he's up by the time he's 19 or 20. Consider Matt Wieters, who had three years of experience catching in the ACC before being drafted, spent a year and 2 months in the minors before getting called up. That's 4 1/2 years between HS and the pros, and Wieters didn't get his GED and play JUCO. The reason repeatedly given for holding Wieters down as long as he was was due to him needing more time to get accustomed to calling games. We know he had a great arm and could block balls in the dirt, but it's the cerebral part of the game that was just as important as his stick.

I can't imagine Harper being ready to handle ML pitchers at 20-21 years old.

I agree, Harper I dont think will be ready that soon either. I honestly hope that hes taken before its our pick, I really do not want him for the price and the risk. I agree its one thing to have ML power but a ML approach is another, and more important. Apparently Rowell has ML power.....ML approach? Id say (hell) no, and look where he is, at the bottom of the O's prospect list.

[QBsILLEST1]

While I like what I've read about Brentz, I don't know if he's worth a top 5 pick with all of these arms available. Here's the question, is Brentz = to Ackley? Ackley was considered a sure thing, only a year or two away from breaking onto an OD roster. While Brentz isn't a CF (and time will tell whether or not Ackley sticks there himself) the question remains is he worth such a lofty selection. The MLB Draft is all about value. While Brentz may be the position player closest to a sure thing, is that of greater or lesser value then a close to sure thing college arm or a huge upside, high risk HS arm?

I'm not saying one way or another, just begging the question.

I look at him as slightly less with the bat than Ackley but way more power. I think he has a very good bat, not as pure as Ackley, but still plus, with fringe plus-plus power. I see that as a very good bit of value. I think I would take him over Ackley honestly, but I wasnt quite as high on Ackley as others. I see Harper ranked ahead at this moment as well as Cole and Taillon for HS pitchers. And possibly Ranaudo and Pomeranz ahead of Brentz too, but once again, the draft is very far away and Brentz seemed to come out of nowhere last year. Brentz may not even maintain the same kind of production in 2010 as he had in 09......Its yet to be seen....

[RandyM]

Comments below. I was discussing three different arguments with two different people, hence the confusion:

topic 1:

Hobgood was the highest talent/character guy on the board when the O's drafted.

topic 2:

Matzek got less money since he was drafted 11th instead of lets say 5th.

topic 3:

Pitt are very likely to pass on Harper next year because of his possible high signinng bonus.

Thanks for the comments BTW. This whole thread I started became something else than it was intended to be. Also, I like the O's draft, including the Hobgood pick when you incorporate the tough signs later.

I read all your posts, and I am not sure exactly what you're even debating anymore. First you say you dont' want to debate Hobgood, then you debate Hobgood. Then you start talking about money spent and how baseball doesn't necessarily follow slotting when it comes to hard to sign guys.

Honestly, I don't think any of your arguments make any sense.

I'll do what I can here to try fix things:

- Hobgood was not the top guy on the board. Strasburg was and then Ackley. Hobgood was on top of the board when it was his turn to be picked, and yes, I fully believe they chose him because of talent and character. As people have pointed out, he's already got 2 plus pitches as an 18 year old.

He was the best pick when you factor in price in addition to talent and character. With price being a big factor. I agree with Jordan spending 2.4 on Hobgood instead of spending 6 on Turner, especially if he is going to spend the 3.6 difference on hard to signs. But to say Hobgood was higher rated than Turner and Matzek when not factoring in cash is hard to say. Guess we both don't know since we aren't friends with Jordan.

- Porcello got his asking price. I went to school with Rick's bro, and he told us that was around what they wanted regardless of draft position.

- Coffey and Ohlman were high school kids who you had to pay for their schooling, and pay them enough to convince them that they can put off going to school full time. They only fell that far because they were deemed long shot signings.

- my reasoning to bring up Coffey, Porcello, and Ohlman was defend that statement that where a player was selected does not determine how much they will get. someone brought up Matzek only getting 3.9 because he went 11th. Matzek was a tough sign from the beginning, him dropping to 11th is not the reason he got 3.9.

- Allstar knows what he is talking about. Completely.

- he might.

- As far as PIT goes, they got a signability pick, but Sanchez will move quick through the system because of his defense. They've been trying to get Doumit out from behind home plate now for 2 years.

- agree, but they also drafted someone they liked earlier that they could sign quickly instead of paying a premium on guys like Matzek or Turner who they didn't think were 2 or 3 mill more expensive. they decided to spend their money on players drafted later. seems like what the O's did also, nothing wrong with that.

- Washington will draft Harper. Washington handled Strasburg and Boras admirably, and it was all the media who kept throwing up red flags about negotiations. He's not 5 years away, at least that's what they hope. He's got an advanced body and skills for a catcher. He'll hit his way through the minors and could be ready in 2-3 years even if his defense is still developing.

- 2 - 3 years is a little quick, but yes Washington will draft Harper, but again the draft is a ways away. a lot can happen.

[wickedwitch]

I wouldn't be so sure about Washington drafting Harper. He isn't the obvious number one choice, but he'll probably cost much more than anyone else. And next year the Nats won't have the pressure being thought of as cheap due to the leeway they earned from signing Strasburg.

[PBR Street Gang]

Regardless of where the O's wind up the point will be moot if they pass on the best available talent again because of money. It's dreadful that we are in the bottom 5 again. Again.

[BringBackMagic]

Regardless of where the O's wind up the point will be moot if they pass on the best available talent again because of money. It's dreadful that we are in the bottom 5 again. Again.

Best available talent as defined by whom? Baseball America? MLB.com? Stotle? You? or Joe Jordan and his staff?

I'm going to put my trust in Jordan.

[QBsILLEST1]

Regardless of where the O's wind up the point will be moot if they pass on the best available talent again because of money. It's dreadful that we are in the bottom 5 again. Again.

What do you know about Hobgood? What do you know about the other HS arms we could have drafted? Why do you insist on clinging onto this one idea? Hobgood was at the top of JJ's board at the time of course pick. He takes his guy, just as in 08 he took Matusz. If we are top 5 again which we probably will, hes gonna take the player at the top of his board once again, and unless you know more about these kids than JJ then you hacve no room to bash JJ. Im just wondering who you thought we should have taken and why.

Best available talent as defined by whom? Baseball America? MLB.com? Stotle? You? or Joe Jordan and his staff?

I'm going to put my trust in Jordan.

He deserves the benefit of the doubt, especially since hes steered us in the right direction most of the time. One thign that people seem to not understand is that everything we see and hear about these kids(Scouting reports) are not always accurate, especially in HS. Its one thing for a scouting report to say a guy has 4 average or better pitches and its another for you to go see the kid pitch and actually see him throw 4 or better above average pitches. The hype many times tends to be just that, hype. I remember reading somewhere that Hobgood's fastball can touch 98 MPH, is that hype? Probably. Just as much as Matzek suddenly throwing 97 MPH the week of the draft is probably hype.....

Im most interested to hear who PBR thinks we should have taken with our pick and why....

[RandyM]

Im most interested to hear who PBR thinks we should have taken with our pick and why....

We agree to disagree. Let's get back to root "against" the O's to get a higher pick .

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/early-draft-preview/2009/268869.html

Thoughts on Christian Colon, SS out of Cal State? I know you or someone brought his name up. All I have read is a very good fielding SS, but not much about his bat.

[QBsILLEST1]

We agree to disagree. Let's get back to root "against" the O's to get a higher pick .

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/early-draft-preview/2009/268869.html

Thoughts on Christian Colon, SS out of Cal State? I know you or someone brought his name up. All I have read is a very good fielding SS, but not much about his bat.

I didnt know that James Paxton and Sam Dyson didnt sign.....I also think that BA is way too low on both Pomeranz and Brentz. From every indication Ive seen, both Pomeranz and ranaudo are very similar, similar repetoires as well as similar performance. I do know I wouldnt take Paxton over Pomeranz or Brentz, I think thats ridiculous....

But, as far as Colon, I mentioned his name a few weeks back and someopne else here likes him as well though I dont remember who. At this point, I dont know if hes gonna be a top 5 kind of guy, possibly top 10 or 15, but from what Ive heard and read about the guy, hes got a good bat and has the potential for above average power down the road, but I dont think hes gonna be a masher or anything. But I believe he projects to be a good fielder as well. Someone defintitely to keep an eye on especially since the position he plays is something we are in need of, but I still think we are gonna be looking at one of those HS arms.