What adjustments do you think AM will make to contend in this division?

[Sports Guy]

I'm trying to figure out how to reconcile Shack's points from earlier in the year (re: Beane) and his apparently now-diminished expectations:

Today:

July:

I think he probably can, but I'd like to hear what the difference is.

Billy Beane's dad wasn't the Orioles GM a long time ago.

[Moose Milligan]

I think we can all agree this franchise as a whole from top to bottom is light years ahead of where it was in say, 2003. Hell, its light years ahead of where it was when MacPhail took over.

There are a lot of valid points from both sides of this argument and I'm not surprised it delved into more of a "Do you think he's the right man for the job?" debate with the usual suspects playing their usual roles.

Maybe he is the right man, maybe he isn't and it's my guess that we won't know the answer to that question for another 2-3 years. Let's not forget we're still in the early stages of this process. And if MacPhail gets us to 85-90 wins a year, let's be thankful for that if we need another GM to come in and get us to the next level.

I know why people are so impatient here and I don't blame them. But I don't think .500 will be very realistic next year and I think this offseason is going to be a huge disappointment.

It's gonna take more time and you can take that as a pro MacPhail statement or not. I just don't see how this team can win more than 75 next year as it currently stands.

[McNulty]

Lets assume for a minute that MacPhail's plan never works. For whatever reason. Even if his tenure is a failure, per se, I'd still consider it a worthwhile venture simply because the way we were doing business before wasn't working at all (and was never going to).

Just a random thought.

[RShack]

Isn't his job obvious? Put the best team on the field possible...Yes, perhaps he has had to do it with a certain budget but still, within the confines of that budget, you build a team the best you can while also focusing on the MiL system.

I answered your question, howsabout if you answer mine?

I said there are 3 things that a successful FO is supposed to do:

• Build/maintain a good org that grows good players
• Produce a team that's consistently good
• Get some rings

I say all 3 are important. Doing all 3 is what people wanna see AM's FO accomplish, me included. It's what excellence means.

How many FO's have done all 3? I say not many, so doing all 3 is a very, very special accomplishment. Do you agree or disagree?

[VeveJones007]

I think the issue is on MacPhail's admitted "deviation" from the plan with the offer to Tex. It could have been a deviation for two reason:

1) That's a lot more money in one player than AM is comfortable with.

--This scenario would lead us to assume that it's unlikely that he will sign FA's like Gonzalez and Fielder.

2) AM just thought it was too early in the rebuilding process to go out and sign a guy to a deal over $100 million.

--This scenario would suggest that AM has no problem signing that top FA to put us over the top, but only once the team is closer to competing.

Those are the two choices, and just for my sanity, I'm hoping it's #2.

[El Gordo]

Agreed...But guys aren't always going to develop....Some won't want to extend..Others you wouldn't want to extend....They are going to have health issues and you are going to need to augment the roster with FAs...and not Huff like FAs either.

This is passe thinking. More and more, teams are locking up young talent and players are entering FA at an inceasingly advanced age. Fewer and fewer options will be available in FA. It doesn't make much sense to count on augmenting your team from FA. If you are lucky you might, but you should plan for other contingencies

[ejf1025]

This is passe thinking. More and more, teams are locking up young talent and players are entering FA at an inceasingly advanced age. Fewer and fewer options will be available in FA. It doesn't make much sense to count on augmenting your team from FA. If you are lucky you might, but you should plan for other contingencies

Yes...this is another good point.

I'd say there were 5 contracts we were "priced" out of last off-season...C.C., Tex, AJ, Manny and K-Rod.

This class looks like Lackey, Holliday and maybe Bay.

And I'm not really sure how many of those contracts we actually want any part of....even if we were contending.

Simply put: very few elite-level players make it to FA, when they do the elite payroll teams swoop in like vultures. It seems very optimistic to think the Orioles "should" be in on these sweepstakes...

If anything, we should be using FA for the Bedard, Delgado, etc of the world...stop gaps, fliers on talent with upside that don't require huge commitments in terms of years and dollars.

[Sports Guy]

I answered your question, howsabout if you answer mine?

I said there are 3 things that a successful FO is supposed to do:

• Build/maintain a good org that grows good players
• Produce a team that's consistently good
• Get some rings

I say all 3 are important. Doing all 3 is what people wanna see AM's FO accomplish, me included. It's what excellence means.

How many FO's have done all 3? I say not many, so doing all 3 is a very, very special accomplishment. Do you agree or disagree?

I agree to an extent.

I do think you are trying to set the bar very high so that way if AM fails, you can say it hasn't been done often and if he does succeed, you can say he is great.

Either way, you win and your hero worship continues.

Personally, rings or not, I feel guys like Terry Ryan and Beane are/were incredible GMs...AM isn't in their league IMO.

[Sports Guy]

This is passe thinking. More and more, teams are locking up young talent and players are entering FA at an inceasingly advanced age. Fewer and fewer options will be available in FA. It doesn't make much sense to count on augmenting your team from FA. If you are lucky you might, but you should plan for other contingencies

Counting on it is one thing...but the likelihood of needing to do it is another...The best organizations do it so no reason to think the Orioles will be any different.

[ejf1025]

Counting on it is one thing...but the likelihood of needing to do it is another...The best organizations do it so no reason to think the Orioles will be any different.

Do we "need" to do it this off-season?

[Sports Guy]

Do we "need" to do it this off-season?

No, not at all...But if a premium guy is there, I wouldn't use the excuse of us not doing anything next year as a reason to not get him.

[ejf1025]

No, not at all...But if a premium guy is there, I wouldn't use the excuse of us not doing anything next year as a reason to not get him.

Yea...I'm just trying to gauge your expectations of this off-season...

Sounds like the only big contract you want a part of is Lackey...but you also seem to concede we will be priced out.

Obviously, things need to be done this off-season, so I'm not going to ask for anything too premature...

But you must admit, given this crop of FA...if McPhail continues to make moves as he has (overall very nice moves...obviously there are points to quibble over) his plan has worked and doesn't need immediate deviation.

[Sports Guy]

Yea...I'm just trying to gauge your expectations of this off-season...

Sounds like the only big contract you want a part of is Lackey...but you also seem to concede we will be priced out.

Obviously, things need to be done this off-season, so I'm not going to ask for anything too premature...

But you must admit, given this crop of FA...if McPhail continues to make moves as he has (overall very nice moves...obviously there are points to quibble over) his plan has worked and doesn't need immediate deviation.

I think it is going to be a disappointing offseason.

At the very least this offseason, I want to see a long term SS answer acquired and I want to see a very solid 2/3 type starter added, either in trade or FA.

I want to see Scott and Guthrie dealt if there is a good market for them.

[RShack]

I agree to an extent.

I do think you are trying to set the bar very high so that way if AM fails, you can say it hasn't been done often and if he does succeed, you can say he is great.

Either way, you win and your hero worship continues.

Personally, rings or not, I feel guys like Terry Ryan and Beane are/were incredible GMs...AM isn't in their league IMO.

Sounds to me like you've got it backwards. I'm saying he's got a hard job, and if the FO he puts in place doesn't do all 3 of those things, then it will not have completely succeeded. The org his father put in place did succeed at all 3 of those things. While he didn't stick around for all 3 parts, he definitely built an organizational machine that accomplished all 3, and did so over a long period of time. For AM to succeed in BAL, he's gotta put an organization in place that does all 3 too. I don't see how that's arranging to let him slide under a high bar. I think the bar is high. That's just reality.

Soprano's saying he thinks he can't do it, I'm saying I think he can. But at least he and I seem to agree that the org AM constructs has to do all 3 things to succeed. Seems to me that you're the guy who thinks being a successful GM is an easy job, not a hard one. Yet you're the one letting GM's slide under the bar based on hero-worship, not me. I say AM's got a very hard job to do here, not an easy one, and that it will take a lot for him to succeed at it. I say AM's org has to grow good players, put a team on the field that's consistently good, and get some rings. If he fails to do any of those, then he will have fallen short of doing what he was brought in here to do. How is that making excuses? Face it, it's not.

[ejf1025]

I think it is going to be a disappointing offseason.

At the very least this offseason, I want to see a long term SS answer acquired and I want to see a very solid 2/3 type starter added, either in trade or FA.

I want to see Scott and Guthrie dealt if there is a good market for them.

Disappointing by your own standards? Or for the "I hope we get a big name" crowd?

I see at least 2 of those 4 items happening (Scott trade, pitcher acquired), Guts I think will be shopped as well...I don't think he'll do SS until mid-season...plus I think a bat is coming for 1B/DH.