Chris Tillman: To trade or not to trade?

[JTrea81]

Stop saying Penn and Tillman were both highly touted because its not true. Penn was looked at to be a decent prospect, Tillman is highly touted.

Anybody who makes that BA 100 list is highly touted IMO.

It's just amazing to me how many people are so adamant that Tillman will succeed despite all the past experiences we've had with pitching prospects.

I just hope Lucy lets you guys kick the football this time...

[mdterpsrule]

Anybody who makes that BA 100 list is highly touted IMO.

It's just amazing to me how many people are so adamant that Tillman will succeed despite all the past experiences we've had with pitching prospects.

I just hope Lucy lets you guys kick the football this time...

I probably would be up for trading Tillman for Mcab for the right package but Tillman is a much better prospect than Penn was (and I was a huge Penn fan, I have tons of his rookie cards and autographs)

[Scrat1]

Anybody who makes that BA 100 list is highly touted IMO.

It's just amazing to me how many people are so adamant that Tillman will succeed despite all the past experiences we've had with pitching prospects.

I just hope Lucy lets you guys kick the football this time...

Another post that makes me wonder if JTrea is some sort of secret genius performing an Andy Kaufman-esque prank on the OH. If anyone's Lucy here, it's you, Trea. We keep trying and trying to talk some sense and reason into you, and you just keep pulling that football away. And yet we keep trying. I've never related to Charlie Brown so much in my life.

[Lucky Jim]

Did you even read that Fangraphs article? It looks like Tillman is going to have a problem with HRs and will be flyball prone, two things that put him at a disadvantage at OPACY. So it's reason to discuss trading him while his value is still high.

They are both flyball pitchers that had high strikeout rates in the minors.

Look at Chen's stats in the minors and compare them to Tillman and then tell me they have nothing in common.

He may have problems w/ flyballs and HRs. It's a possible outcome. Not a certainty. As 1970 pointed out, he's not an extreme flyball pitcher, his GO/FO ratio is actually something like 1.05:1 at the MiLB level.

He needs to work down in the zone more, but that's not a real problem. He gets a lot of vertical movement on his fastball, which should help.

The Chen comparison is ludicrous. Who cares if the stats are similar if the pitchers are nothing alike? Chen is a 6'2 lefty w/ a sub-90 MPH fastball and marginal secondaries. Chen also lost his fastball velocity by the time he reached MLB. When Tillman is throwing 87 MPH get back to me.

When Tillman becomes a junkballing 6'2 lefty, let me know. The rest of us realize he's not a 6'2 lefty w/o a fastball because we actually watch baseball games.

[El Gordo]

I say. I'll point out two bad premises and let others find their own.

Bad premise. Extrapolating from 65 innings that are dominated by two games in which he gave up 3 HRs each (6 HRs total). Bad premise.

Bad premise. Tillman and Bruce Chen have nothing in common. Nothing.

Why don't you explain to us how Jake Arrieta is a groundball pitcher. Or better, what possible similarities exist between Tillman and Bruce Chen.

I think we should all put you on ignore until you've watched 100 actual baseball games.

Exactly. If you look at the first 65 innings of Glavine Smoltz and Maddux, you will see Tillman does about the same if not a little better, save for the HR/9. SSS. By this silly reasoning all these guys were trade bait.:rolleyestf:

[RShack]

I think we should all put you on ignore until you've watched 100 actual baseball games.

Well, he supposedly comes to OPACY for one game per year. So, at that rate, 100 games would take, um, well, let's see... by my calculations, it comes to quite-a-while. However, I'm not sure if that gets adjusted based on how many premium UZR-WAR's are involved, or if there are any big splashes...

[Moose Milligan]

Glad to see the book has been written about Chris Tillman.

[ChaosLex]

[Remember The Alomar]

Glad to see the book has been written about Chris Tillman.

Hey guys, great news! We don't need to worry about Tillman anymore! I forwarded him this thread and he accepted his fate and has decided to retire.

He admitted he may have been pulling a bit of a Cal, playing longer then he should have etc, but he finally made the right decision. Thank god that salary is finally off the books, it was killing us!

I'm also glad he decided to retire before next season started, we're obviously going to be one of the top contenders and dead weight can't be pulling us down!

Now if only that Wieters guy could retire too...I hate to say it but his bat has gotten pretty slow!

[Remember The Alomar]

Onward Rocinante!

<img src="http://p.images.blip.tv/Riverwired-JGL1Rachel2STory3727.jpg">

[GoldGlove21]

Look at Johan Santana's numbers and compare them to Tillman and tell me they have nothing in common.

How long you wanna do this?

Hank,

Are we really comparing Tillman to Santana? That is a pretty unfair comparison for our boy. I know the Orioles have put a high emphasis on their young players value in the past, but I can remember the Orioles ever having this much young talent that was recognized by the entire industry. I like Tillman less than Matusz and Arrieta. That being said, if the Orioles trade Tillman they had better be getting a top notch baseball player that is under team control for 4 or more years or willing to extend with us before the trade is officially completed.

[GoldGlove21]

He may have problems w/ flyballs and HRs. It's a possible outcome. Not a certainty. As 1970 pointed out, he's not an extreme flyball pitcher, his GO/FO ratio is actually something like 1.05:1 at the MiLB level.

He needs to work down in the zone more, but that's not a real problem. He gets a lot of vertical movement on his fastball, which should help.

The Chen comparison is ludicrous. Who cares if the stats are similar if the pitchers are nothing alike? Chen is a 6'2 lefty w/ a sub-90 MPH fastball and marginal secondaries. Chen also lost his fastball velocity by the time he reached MLB. When Tillman is throwing 87 MPH get back to me.

When Tillman becomes a junkballing 6'2 lefty, let me know. The rest of us realize he's not a 6'2 lefty w/o a fastball because we actually watch baseball games.

The Chen comparison isn't ludacris, I am sure that Roger Clemens could be compared to Daniel Cabrera, right? :laughlol:

When the entire baseball world seems to think he is a top starting pitching prospect who are we to question guys who are much better at this than we are? I think the Bruce Chen comp came from non-other than Bruce Chen himself.

Now if we are talking about the fact that highly touted players can be busts at the ML level after putting up solid MiL numbers then that is a plausible argument.

[carolinaoriole]

I would not trade Tillman, unless the offer was one that could not be refused.

[HoodGuy007]

Hank,

Are we really comparing Tillman to Santana? That is a pretty unfair comparison for our boy. I know the Orioles have put a high emphasis on their young players value in the past, but I can remember the Orioles ever having this much young talent that was recognized by the entire industry. I like Tillman less than Matusz and Arrieta. That being said, if the Orioles trade Tillman they had better be getting a top notch baseball player that is under team control for 4 or more years or willing to extend with us before the trade is officially completed.

If Trea wants to compare Tillman to Bruce Chen, then it is just as wild and probable that Chris follows Santana's major league career line. Case of two extremes being pointed out.

[GoldGlove21]

If Trea wants to compare Tillman to Bruce Chen, then it is just as wild and probable that Chris follows Santana's major league career line. Case of two extremes being pointed out.

I agree, but my point is tied to the fact that we are fairly certain that Tillman is going to be at least a back of the rotation starter for years to come. I get the two examples, but most pitchers in the big leagues will fall somewhere between Chen and Santana. That is a pretty bland comparison on both accounts. This is why I do not like comps. Tillman's sample size is way too small at the major league level to draw any conclusion. I will say that he does walk too many guys, but that number is compared to his strikeouts and that number down plays the walks. In the big leagues good hitters tend to lay off of the bad pitchers where the minor league hitters chase them. This makes his minor league strikout numbers a little more even at the ML level. Walking 3.3 batters every 9 innings in your career is not going to help you at the big league level, especially if you see the number of homeruns you give up increase. That is the single reason why Guthrie has had bad years in the past.