Tillman

[TyCobb]

I am not asking him to stop throwing it...I am saying he has to mix in other pitches, work inside more and, like you said, use his change up more...Problem is, that isn't a consistent pitch yet..he has to develop the confidence in it.

Tillman threw 13.7% CH last season. While he was giving up a ton of HRs. I take that as he already has lots of confidence in it.

I want Tillman to throw inside more. I thought that was his biggest problem last season. He left so many pitches down that middle and spent so much time on the outside corner.

If it is true that he added a cutter that will be interesting see how it effects the rest of his pitches.

[Frobby]

Tillman threw 13.7% CH last season. While he was giving up a ton of HRs. I take that as he already has lots of confidence in it.

I want Tillman to throw inside more. I thought that was his biggest problem last season. He left so many pitches down that middle and spent so much time on the outside corner.

If it is true that he added a cutter that will be interesting see how it effects the rest of his pitches.

Some of this could be on the catchers. Uehara said he was surprised how consistently the catchers set up outside and that he needs to work both sides of the plate to be most effective.

[TyCobb]

Some of this could be on the catchers. Uehara said he was surprised how consistently the catchers set up outside and that he needs to work both sides of the plate to be most effective.

Tillman was to the extreme last year.

[SteveA]

Development should still be the #1 thing for 2010.

You guys are drastically overrating the 5th starter anyway.

Tillman needs to log innings...We should be happy if he gives us 150+ innings of 4.75 ERA ball. That will be a nice first full season in the majors.

4th and 5th starters, in the AL, are guys that are normally going to give you 4.75-5.3 ERA seasons.

Again, I think people really fail to both realize and understand this.

I don't think people are too far off on this. MOST people in this thread believe he should make the team, but some are talking in an absolute that nothing that happensin the spring should affect that, and others are being flexible on this point. You say we are drastically overrating the 5th starter...yeah, probably. I also think you are drastically overrating the damage that would be done IF some circumstances would lead to him spending some time in AAA to start the season. I think the overall impact on his career and his development would be practically zero, or it could even be a positive impact if for example he shows some problems with command in spring training and could work those out in AAA. Note that I said "if". I want to see him in the rotation and he certainly is in the rotation in my mind right now if I were running the team. And in the Wang/Washburn poll I voted that I don't want either.

The ONLY real difference between my position and yours is that I leave open the possibility that performance in spring training (not just raw stats but everything from work habits to bullpen sessions to judging his command and his mechanics and not just statistical results) could change that. You want a number? In my mind there is less than a 15% chance of that happening, I'm just allowing that it could.

And I think the other difference between my position and yours is that you seem to feel it would be some sort of monumental disaster in his development if he did have to go back to AAA for a few months, and I think in terms of his career it would be an utterly meaningless blip that would be completely forgotten a couple years from now.

[Tony-OH]

The idea that guys like Tillman and Pie will/should get their oppurtunities because of injuries and/or poor performance is so poor. They shouldn't need that to happen.

People are so wrapped up in the win total that they aren't looking at the big picture...and besides, the Orioles are better with the young guys than the vets anyway.

Tillman had a 4.50 ERA before his last 2 starts and it was 4.71 before his last start.

I felt the Orioles should have shut Tillman down sooner and those last 2 starts, where he struggled, may have shown me(and many many others) to be right.

Its hard for me to agree with Tony when he said:

I just disagree with this...He was pitching like a 4/5 starter...as a 21 year old and he ended up with a poor ERA because the Orioles didn't shut him down early enough.

I think people get this idea in their heads that these guys need to come up here right away and be very good players, whether they are pitchers or hitters.

There is an adjustment period..they are going to struggle from time to time, especially at the end of the year, pitching more innings than they have ever pitched and pitching later in the season than they have ever pitched before.

Lots of pitchers come up and have success right away so I disagree that Tillman's poor numbers last year should be ignored.

Tillman has command issues that were taken advantage of by major league hitters last year. He had the same command issues in the minors but because his stuff was so good he was able to overwhelm them.

Now don't get me wrong, I like Tillman, and think he has a bright future, and if he throws well this spring I think he should certainly be on the team come opening day, but he should not have anything handed to him.

He needs to compete for the spot and if he wins, he gets the spot. If things are close, he should get the spot, but if he bombs this spring, he should go back to the minors. He's young enough and has things that he still needs to work on and it's not going to hurt him or his future for him to return to AAA.

[TyCobb]

Lots of pitchers come up and have success right away so I disagree that Tillman's poor numbers last year should be ignored.

Tillman has command issues that were taken advantage of by major league hitters last year. He had the same command issues in the minors but because his stuff was so good he was able to overwhelm them.

Now don't get me wrong, I like Tillman, and think he has a bright future, and if he throws well this spring I think he should certainly be on the team come opening day, but he should not have anything handed to him.

He needs to compete for the spot and if he wins, he gets the spot. If things are close, he should get the spot, but if he bombs this spring, he should go back to the minors. He's young enough and has things that he still needs to work on and it's not going to hurt him or his future for him to return to AAA.

So if Bergeson or Matusz were not the 5th best pitcher you would be ok with one of them starting in AAA?

[Sports Guy]

Lots of pitchers come up and have success right away so I disagree that Tillman's poor numbers last year should be ignored.

Tillman has command issues that were taken advantage of by major league hitters last year. He had the same command issues in the minors but because his stuff was so good he was able to overwhelm them.

Now don't get me wrong, I like Tillman, and think he has a bright future, and if he throws well this spring I think he should certainly be on the team come opening day, but he should not have anything handed to him.

He needs to compete for the spot and if he wins, he gets the spot. If things are close, he should get the spot, but if he bombs this spring, he should go back to the minors. He's young enough and has things that he still needs to work on and it's not going to hurt him or his future for him to return to AAA.

I think you are underrating some of what Tillman did last year, as a 21 y/o.

I do agree there were some things that are worrisome...but I think there was a lot more to be impressed about..some of which that isn't measured by a number.

[Stotle]

I think you are underrating some of what Tillman did last year, as a 21 y/o.

I do agree there were some things that are worrisome...but I think there was a lot more to be impressed about..some of which that isn't measured by a number.

I don't know that this is particularly true with Tony, but I agree that Tillman's age has been undervalued by a fair number of posters in their critiques.

[Sports Guy]

I don't know that this is particularly true with Tony, but I agree that Tillman's age has been undervalued by a fair number of posters in their critiques.

What I wonder is this...Had the Orioles shut down Tillman before his last start, do people have as many questions about him?

[Tony-OH]

So if Bergeson or Matusz were not the 5th best pitcher you would be ok with one of them starting in AAA?

No, I think they both earned their spots by their success last year. I would think they were have to implode to lose their spots.

[Tony-OH]

I think you are underrating some of what Tillman did last year, as a 21 y/o.

I do agree there were some things that are worrisome...but I think there was a lot more to be impressed about..some of which that isn't measured by a number.

Here's the thing, I'm not talking about overall potential, I'm talking about this year. I have great respect for where Tillman is for his age and I think he's got a bright, bright future, but at the same time, he's got things to work on and if he shows the same concerns this spring and there is someone better (right now I would say no), he could start the year in AAA with no harm done.

Right now, I think he goes into the season as the number five starter, but he needs to perform well to keep it.

[Stotle]

What I wonder is this...Had the Orioles shut down Tillman before his last start, do people have as many questions about him?

I think the issue is closer to "the desire to have an opinion on a player tends to made problematic by the fact that top-tier prospects don't always take the same path to ML success." It could take Tillman 2 starts or 12 to get comfortable and start finding sustained success this year. But so long as he's holding his own and showing progress, he needs to be given the rope to swim around at the ML level.

I also think the idea of pitching depth in the system has the side-effect of giving some the sense that there are candidates ready to easily step-in. Just my opinion, but one I feel is closer to the mark than not -- if you see a potential plus-contributor in your system then you need to give that player every opportunity to succeed. In some instances, that might mean taking it slowly. In Tillman's case, I think he's shown incredible success at the MiL level (particularly last year) and not enough of a struggle at the ML level to warrant being sent down to a level where he likely won't be challenged.

I understand others may feel that he can work on command and consistency at AAA, but I just don't see it. I think he needs to continue facing ML hitters and learn exactly what it takes to go out and try and log 6+ successful ML innings every fifth day.

[Lucky Jim]

In Tillman's case, I think he's shown incredible success at the MiL level (particularly last year) and not enough of a struggle at the ML level to warrant being sent down to a level where he likely won't be challenged.

I understand others may feel that he can work on command and consistency at AAA, but I just don't see it. I think he needs to continue facing ML hitters and learn exactly what it takes to go out and try and log 6+ successful ML innings every fifth day.

This pretty much sums up my stance on this. Especially the part about working on things at AAA when we know that he can miss bats at AAA.

[Tony-OH]

I think the issue is closer to "the desire to have an opinion on a player tends to made problematic by the fact that top-tier prospects don't always take the same path to ML success." It could take Tillman 2 starts or 12 to get comfortable and start finding sustained success this year. But so long as he's holding his own and showing progress, he needs to be given the rope to swim around at the ML level.

I also think the idea of pitching depth in the system has the side-effect of giving some the sense that there are candidates ready to easily step-in. Just my opinion, but one I feel is closer to the mark than not -- if you see a potential plus-contributor in your system then you need to give that player every opportunity to succeed. In some instances, that might mean taking it slowly. In Tillman's case, I think he's shown incredible success at the MiL level (particularly last year) and not enough of a struggle at the ML level to warrant being sent down to a level where he likely won't be challenged.

I understand others may feel that he can work on command and consistency at AAA, but I just don't see it. I think he needs to continue facing ML hitters and learn exactly what it takes to go out and try and log 6+ successful ML innings every fifth day.

That's a valid point, but the big leagues is not a tryout camp. If he's not finding that consistency then you don't keep him in the big leagues. This team needs to win games and if he gives the team the best chance at winning every five days then he should be in the rotation, if not, he should be in AAA.

The Orioles are past the point of just giving guys a chance. They need to compete day in and day out and if Tillman is one of the best five starters we can put out there this year then he should be out there. He's certainly among the five best for overall ceiling, but that doesn't cut it at this point in my book.

Saying this, I think Tillman has a good chance of taking that step and right now, I don't see anyone beating him out who is currently on the roster.

[Old#5fan]

That's a valid point, but the big leagues is not a tryout camp. If he's not finding that consistency then you don't keep him in the big leagues. This team needs to win games and if he gives the team the best chance at winning every five days then he should be in the rotation, if not, he should be in AAA.

The Orioles are past the point of just giving guys a chance. They need to compete day in and day out and if Tillman is one of the best five starters we can put out there this year then he should be out there. He's certainly among the five best for overall ceiling, but that doesn't cut it at this point in my book.

Saying this, I think Tillman has a good chance of taking that step and right now, I don't see anyone beating him out who is currently on the roster.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but on the other hand might it not be better for Tillman to gain more experience at the major league level? I say this because both the hitters and the strike zone are much more challenging than at AAA. So to me unless he is having some kind of mechanics issue that he needs to work out and could best do it in the minors I say let the kid sink or swim at the major league level. That is the only true test for him to prove he can handle it IMO. Believe me, I like the kid as he impresses me with his stuff more than any Oriole pitching prospect I have seen since Mussina, including Bedard.