Tillman

[Stotle]

That's a valid point, but the big leagues is not a tryout camp. If he's not finding that consistency then you don't keep him in the big leagues. This team needs to win games and if he gives the team the best chance at winning every five days then he should be in the rotation, if not, he should be in AAA.

The Orioles are past the point of just giving guys a chance. They need to compete day in and day out and if Tillman is one of the best five starters we can put out there this year then he should be out there. He's certainly among the five best for overall ceiling, but that doesn't cut it at this point in my book.

Saying this, I think Tillman has a good chance of taking that step and right now, I don't see anyone beating him out who is currently on the roster.

Considering the drek Baltimore has sallied onto the hill over the past three years, I would be highly disappointed if the organization doesn't have the patience to allow one of the most talented young arms to come through the system in the last ten years an opportunity to work through at least some issues at the ML level. If the new standard is success or AAA, I have a feeling BAL fans are going to be disappointed with a lot of the young arms when they arrive.

I mean, what is gained by having Tillman go down to Norfolk, throw 2.70 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 9.2 SO/9 again only to get called back up to face the same issue of needing to learn how to best approach ML hitters?

I agree I don't see anyone else beating Tillman out.

[TyCobb]

I think the issue is closer to "the desire to have an opinion on a player tends to made problematic by the fact that top-tier prospects don't always take the same path to ML success." It could take Tillman 2 starts or 12 to get comfortable and start finding sustained success this year. But so long as he's holding his own and showing progress, he needs to be given the rope to swim around at the ML level.

I also think the idea of pitching depth in the system has the side-effect of giving some the sense that there are candidates ready to easily step-in. Just my opinion, but one I feel is closer to the mark than not -- if you see a potential plus-contributor in your system then you need to give that player every opportunity to succeed. In some instances, that might mean taking it slowly. In Tillman's case, I think he's shown incredible success at the MiL level (particularly last year) and not enough of a struggle at the ML level to warrant being sent down to a level where he likely won't be challenged.

I understand others may feel that he can work on command and consistency at AAA, but I just don't see it. I think he needs to continue facing ML hitters and learn exactly what it takes to go out and try and log 6+ successful ML innings every fifth day.

This pretty much sums up my stance on this. Especially the part about working on things at AAA when we know that he can miss bats at AAA.

Same here. Not sure how Tillman is suppose to gain more command of his curve ball when in AAA he would be throwing a different ball than in the bigs.

I think a lot of people are forgetting that Tillman's last several starts were at career high IP levels.

[Sports Guy]

I think the issue is closer to "the desire to have an opinion on a player tends to made problematic by the fact that top-tier prospects don't always take the same path to ML success." It could take Tillman 2 starts or 12 to get comfortable and start finding sustained success this year. But so long as he's holding his own and showing progress, he needs to be given the rope to swim around at the ML level.

I also think the idea of pitching depth in the system has the side-effect of giving some the sense that there are candidates ready to easily step-in. Just my opinion, but one I feel is closer to the mark than not -- if you see a potential plus-contributor in your system then you need to give that player every opportunity to succeed. In some instances, that might mean taking it slowly. In Tillman's case, I think he's shown incredible success at the MiL level (particularly last year) and not enough of a struggle at the ML level to warrant being sent down to a level where he likely won't be challenged.

I understand others may feel that he can work on command and consistency at AAA, but I just don't see it. I think he needs to continue facing ML hitters and learn exactly what it takes to go out and try and log 6+ successful ML innings every fifth day.

Same here...I think this is where the big difference in thinking is. I don't know that either side is right or wrong...Just depends on what you feel about the minors and what it can do for a guy like Tillman at this point.

[Moose Milligan]

Same here...I think this is where the big difference in thinking is. I don't know that either side is right or wrong...Just depends on what you feel about the minors and what it can do for a guy like Tillman at this point.

True.

I think some are worried about him being too shellshocked early on...I know I am.

But then again, we've discussed that any player reaches a "sink or swim" point where they can either hack it in the bigs or they can't, no matter what their time in the minors is. Granted Tillman is way far away from that time right now but I'd hate to ever see him have to come to that point with his prospects looking dim.

[Sports Guy]

True.

I think some are worried about him being too shellshocked early on...I know I am.

But then again, we've discussed that any player reaches a "sink or swim" point where they can either hack it in the bigs or they can't, no matter what their time in the minors is. Granted Tillman is way far away from that time right now but I'd hate to ever see him have to come to that point with his prospects looking dim.

Well, i think we would have seen that already with all the homers he gave up.

[Old#5fan]

Well, i think we would have seen that already with all the homers he gave up.

I think some posters here are selling Tillman short and putting too much emphasis on a small sample size of a young man adjusting to the highest level of talent in his sport. I am not guaranteeing he will develop into a decent major league pitcher but his curve ball has ace quality to it, something that I have not seen so far from any of our other highly touted prospects. I admit, I would like to see Arrieta pitch to see what kind of stuff he has. Perhaps he has superb stuff as well.

[tvz1997]

From today's ESPN chat with Keith Law:

Steve (Illinois)

What are the pundits seeing in Chris Tillman that keeps him rated so high? I keep thinking he's not as good as fellow AL East wonderkinds Wade Davis, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Bergeson.

Klaw (1:46 PM)

Youth and stuff. I'd put him behind Davis but ahead of the other two by a lot.

[Old#5fan]

From today's ESPN chat with Keith Law:

That pretty much says it. He is the youngest with the best stuff. That is what I call a nice looking prospect. He should be the least likely pitching prospect to be traded IMO.

[Tony-OH]

If this Tillman shows up we won't be having any conversations about this anyways:

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6595157

[Stotle]

If this Tillman shows up we won't be having any conversations about this anyways:

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6595157

The curves are a known commodity from his BA minor league repots from two-years ago, but I say again that the change-up on Posada for the last strikeout is going to make him a beast. Great arm speed/slot with depth AND fade. Filthy.

[Tony-OH]

I think some posters here are selling Tillman short and putting too much emphasis on a small sample size of a young man adjusting to the highest level of talent in his sport. I am not guaranteeing he will develop into a decent major league pitcher but his curve ball has ace quality to it, something that I have not seen so far from any of our other highly touted prospects. I admit, I would like to see Arrieta pitch to see what kind of stuff he has. Perhaps he has superb stuff as well.

I don't. I'm honestly astonished that some posters who equate thinking a guy has things to work on with "he's not going to be very good."

I like Tillman as much as anyone and think he's going to be a big part of the Orioles future, and honestly, if the orioles go into spring training with what they got he would have to implode in spring training to lose his spot in the rotation.

What some people clearly don't understand is that there are things pitchers can tinker with and work on more effectively in the minor leagues than against the best hitters in the world. We're not talking about moving a guy from A-ball to AA because he dominating a level, we're talking about a guy finding consistency in command and that sometimes means working on some mechanic things.

If a guy is not pitching well at 22-years old in the big leagues, there is value to giving him a less stressful situation to work things out.

For some, they believe there is no value in going back to the minors, but I say it depends on the problems the pitcher is having. The major leagues is not a tryout camp and it's not a place to work through issues if the issues are getting to the point where the player is significantly hurting the team.

Personally, I think Tillman will win the 5th starters spot and I would certainly not want to see the Orioles go out and bring in some Adam Eaton type guy to replace him, but if he struggles badly, there is value in sending him back to AAA to work on things regardless of what some believe.

[GoldGlove21]

When it comes to "stuff" I would think that pitchers are graded on how many plus pitches are in their inventory and the corresponding ability needed to locate their pitches. I would imagine that Danny Cabrera had a plus fast ball, but that didn't stop him from having control issues that derailed his progress. The command issue that Tillman seems to struggle with is a problem and if it keeps up then his plus pitches become slightly ineffective as hitters tend to work ahead in the count.

Matusz has three fringe plus pitches right now and Tillman has two so what is it that people see in Tillman to think he is more impressive than Matusz at this point? If it is an age issue then I think people need to step back and see both sides of the Tillman argument. One group seems to look at his minor league performance record and his age and think he has nothing left to prove at that level. The problem is that he has a lot to prove at the major league level and that doesn't change if you are 21 or 27 if you are a prospect. I see talent in Tillman just like I see talent in Bergesen, Arrieta, Hernandez, and Matusz. I think all of these guys have the potential to be good big league contributors. But if a guy isn't hacking it then you do not throw him out there because he will eventually get it. If I am a starting pitcher getting drilled in the majors or getting sent to the minors because I am getting drilled in the majors is the same scenario for me. I am not effectively doing my job. Getting sent to the minors to find yourself or build confidence is just the outcome tied to my performance.

I made the Tillman argument earlier in this thread and I am very happy to have Tillman in our organization. I think he will be a solid major league pitcher with much of his success tied to his ability to locate his stuff, but that can be said about most of the pitchers in the game. What I saw from Tillman last year is a guy who could throw his curve for strikes but seemed to have a hard time locating his fastball. If the Orioles do not bring in another pitcher then you have to like Tillman's odds in landing the number 5 spot. Hopefully the guy performs well and this whole thread is a non-issue.

[GoldGlove21]

That pretty much says it. He is the youngest with the best stuff. That is what I call a nice looking prospect. He should be the least likely pitching prospect to be traded IMO.

I am happy to have Tillman, but how does being 22 with great stuff differ from being 24-25 with great stuff? Both guys have great stuff and both guys are under team control for 6 years. When I look at those top 50 lists I always laugh because so many of those guys that are the next big thing tend to miss. Some contribute as average players and others are outright busts. I think Tillman is a #3 pitcher in the future with #2 starter upside and I do not know why that is such a bad outlook for any prospect, especially one that pitches in the AL East.

Let me ask you all this question. What pitching prospects would you pick before Tillman if you had to select a minor league pitcher. I can't think of too many, less than 10 for sure. Brian Matusz would be one guy I would pick a head of Tillman and that says a lot about the tandum those two could make.

[Stotle]

I am happy to have Tillman, but how does being 22 with great stuff differ from being 24-25 with great stuff? Both guys have great stuff and both guys are under team control for 6 years. When I look at those top 50 lists I always laugh because so many of those guys that are the next big thing tend to miss. Some contribute as average players and others are outright busts. I think Tillman is a #3 pitcher in the future with #2 starter upside and I do not know why that is such a bad outlook for any prospect, especially one that pitches in the AL East.

Let me ask you all this question. What pitching prospects would you pick before Tillman if you had to select a minor league pitcher. I can't think of too many, less than 10 for sure. Brian Matusz would be one guy I would pick a head of Tillman and that says a lot about the tandum those two could make.

Only drawing from rookie-eligible players:

Definitely:

Matusz

Strasburg

Perez

Maybe:

Bumgarner

Davis

Feliz

Matzek

Kelly

Tillman's class, non-rookie eligible:

Porcello

Anderson

Price

That's all that comes to my mind.

[tilgaham]

If this Tillman shows up we won't be having any conversations about this anyways:

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6595157

My favorite part of that video is Nick Swisher's reaction to Tillman's stuff :laughlol: