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Seems like MacPhail "gets it"


Hank Scorpio

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One issue I have is if the FO was so completely inept, which I think it was, I am very happy they did not make a bunch of moves over the past few years that included our few players that are actually better than average. I have no confidence that they would have got any players back that would have helped us now or in the future. If the FO has good baseball people in place and they have the authority to make deals then by all means make the good ones happen no matter who is involved. But the pre-Macphail FO was trying to give us a utility IF and a DCab clone (i.e. all world potential not so good actual pitching) for a near all-star level SS who is still capable of being a MVP and a older not that great 2b and a flawed 1b for a allstar level second baseman. BTW the second deal having to be nixed by PA is why AM is with the club today IMO. The proof of the capabilities of this current FO will be evident over the next 24 months any shorter period and we are just jumping to conclusions. I think AM has made it clear that the O's are going to try to make moves this winter to improve immediately and in the long term, but the truth is we likely will not have that reliable of a read on the success or failure of the efforts for a couple of seasons.

yeah it's proabably for the best that we did hold onto them for longer. If MacPhail can get Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Trax then I would love to see what he could get for Bedard, Tejada and Roberts.

OK, maybe Tejada.

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You may not care about money but AM better care. He is not running some fantasy team, and he needs to know just how much he has to spend, how much PA is willing to eat in contracts, if any at all.

I am going to address your post point by point....Have to do it this way because of how you responded to mine:

So what you are saying is , if we blow it up this year and don't compete we should blow it up again? I know that is not what you are truly saying but there are different ways to rebuild. A controlled blow up is one way. Make the right moves at the right time.
Blow it up now(actually a lot of should have been done before but they weren't smart enough to figure that out)...The idea is to get the young players in place to add to your existing young core...As these guys develop and you see who fails or what holes you have, you can then carefully sprinkle in the proper FAs around these guys to put you over the top.
Then by this logic we should never sign our own players once they reach a year or less on their contracts.
Yes...A lot of times, i wouldn't do this. If the player is very young, that changes things. But for the most part, i do not want to give out 5-8 year deals for guys who are 28-30 years old and that is where most players will be when they are near free agency...Sign them in the first or second year of arbitration and eat up 2 of their FA years...By then, you have likely had that player for their best years and then they can walk for draft picks...Constantly improving the farm system...Reloading from here on out..Not rebuilding(think Atlanta)
I would also guess you are never ever going to complain that we failed to sign a prime FA, because they also will be to expensive and not worth signing.
There will be the occassional guy, like Vlad was but for the most part yes, i don't care about the FA that much.
And as to a good reason. Because we still need to be some what competitive. Fans still need something to go to the ball park for. Because Cindy loves Brian
Look at some of the reaction for a bad player like Luis Hernandez. People like his excitement and defense and hustle. The fans will get new fan favorites and enjoy watching the young kids play. Losing fans is the least of the worries IMO.
I am throwing out a lot of what if scenarios because NONE of us know what can/will happen, and that is about all you can do in discussions like this. And why risk it?? Why not? Why not take the chance that we can improve and convince them to sign long term contracts? Because if that gamble pays off then we will be so much better off, even with their big 'ol contracts.
How do you know that? We can't spend like NY..You have to be smart about things.

Giving 5-8 year deals for 12-20 million a year for guys in their 30s is not a smart thing to do, especially if you are talking about pitching.

I do agree that we need to find out from PA how much, if any, he is willing to eat in contracts.

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Oh, great, just what we need: more phony all-or-nothing BS.

What they've been doing for 10 years is not "middle ground".

Failure to build a good organization top-to-bottom is not "middle ground".

Deciding to over-pay for dead-wood vets like Payton is not "middle ground".

Failure to even formulate, much less follow, a coherent organizational plan is not "middle ground".

What they've been doing for 10 years is "poor decision-making in the absence of any apparent coherent plan".

In what possible universe (other than the one inside SG's head) is doing that called "middle ground"?

As usual, in the world inside SG's mind, there are only 2 choices: SG's way or the wrong way.

As usual, SG makes the bogus claim that anything other than his own wacko scheme is "more of what they've been doing for 10 years".

When it comes to making an honest case, "you just don't get it" ™.

I can't believe how many people fall for this crap...

I think that the "plan" the past 3/4 years depended on the pitching staff dominating right away.

They obviously overvalued the talent.

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They bet the whole stack of chips that Loewen, Benson, Bedard, Wright and Caberra would make us decent. And if they had been healthy most likely we would of been over .500 and much better. It would of kept Guthrie in relief. Burres in relief. That alone would of made the pen better.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Benson and Wright are gone. Caberra looks like he may never be a quality starter. Loewen hasnt proved he can pitch yet. What do we have? Just a lot of Question marks.

I am with Sports Guy on this. I think it is time for a total rebuild. Break it apart and start over.

Eat contracts and trade them for minor prospects. Clear the roster space. Payton is the first to go. I mean Fio could probally hit .250 with 7 homeruns up here. Reimold should come up and we could see what he can do.

Eat Mora's contract and trade him. Make room for Moore. Mora isnt getting any younger. If Moore doesnt work out so what. Mora would be retired before we are competitive anyway.

Roberts should go too. What great trade bait. Not making that much money yet. Great stats. Only contracted for two years. Give up the prospects! I mean how can you go wrong with Roberts?

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They certainly have had a plan recently, and it definitely was the "middle ground". Attempting to sign some FAs to build a winner while not trading away any aging talent for young prospects. Just because the plan has been a poor one, does not mean it didn't exist. Every offseason the plan was to try and magically build a winner for the next season, while not going completely overboard for FAs. Most definitely middle ground.

Bad plan and worse execution.

I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them. In that regard they were handcuffed from the beginning. And as it has been pointed out, keeping some core players and adding some FA's to go with them (Middle Ground?) isn't a bad plan just because they have executed it poorly. I made this same case regarding the plan coming into this season. Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The Bullpen. And while they likely overpaid for a guy or 2, the guys they got were considered reasonable additions to attack the greatest weakness on this team. So for me, the plan was good-decent. The execution was good-decent, the result was horrible. Some of it in their control, and perhaps some not.... had Baez and Ray stayed healthy and had a good-great season, things would have been different.. how much is debatable.. we lost alot of close games this year... but nevertheless, poor execution of a plan doesn't make the plan a bad one. The only situation whereby you can consider Middle Ground not the "best plan" for success is that in keeping the few assets we have, leaves us with little to upgrade from.

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I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them.

What financial constraints? They had a $90M+ payroll. That was in the top 1/3 of the league. The O's had a higher payroll than the Cardinals or the Phillies or the Braves.

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What financial constraints? They had a $90M+ payroll. That was in the top 1/3 of the league. The O's had a higher payroll than the Cardinals or the Phillies or the Braves.

Maybe he's talking about all of the worthless cash he's thrown around to the likes of Jay Gibbons, Jay Payton, Melvin Mora, and others over the past few years.

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I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them. In that regard they were handcuffed from the beginning. And as it has been pointed out, keeping some core players and adding some FA's to go with them (Middle Ground?) isn't a bad plan just because they have executed it poorly. I made this same case regarding the plan coming into this season. Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The Bullpen. And while they likely overpaid for a guy or 2, the guys they got were considered reasonable additions to attack the greatest weakness on this team. So for me, the plan was good-decent. The execution was good-decent, the result was horrible. Some of it in their control, and perhaps some not.... had Baez and Ray stayed healthy and had a good-great season, things would have been different.. how much is debatable.. we lost alot of close games this year... but nevertheless, poor execution of a plan doesn't make the plan a bad one. The only situation whereby you can consider Middle Ground not the "best plan" for success is that in keeping the few assets we have, leaves us with little to upgrade from.

Financial restrictions? The payroll is $90+ million.

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I am going to address your post point by point....Have to do it this way because of how you responded to mine:

Blow it up now(actually a lot of should have been done before but they weren't smart enough to figure that out)...The idea is to get the young players in place to add to your existing young core...As these guys develop and you see who fails or what holes you have, you can then carefully sprinkle in the proper FAs around these guys to put you over the top.

Yes...A lot of times, i wouldn't do this. If the player is very young, that changes things. But for the most part, i do not want to give out 5-8 year deals for guys who are 28-30 years old and that is where most players will be when they are near free agency...Sign them in the first or second year of arbitration and eat up 2 of their FA years...By then, you have likely had that player for their best years and then they can walk for draft picks...Constantly improving the farm system...Reloading from here on out..Not rebuilding(think Atlanta)There will be the occassional guy, like Vlad was but for the most part yes, i don't care about the FA that much.

Look at some of the reaction for a bad player like Luis Hernandez. People like his excitement and defense and hustle. The fans will get new fan favorites and enjoy watching the young kids play. Losing fans is the least of the worries IMO.

How do you know that? We can't spend like NY..You have to be smart about things.

Giving 5-8 year deals for 12-20 million a year for guys in their 30s is not a smart thing to do, especially if you are talking about pitching.

I do agree that we need to find out from PA how much, if any, he is willing to eat in contracts.

Well I had to respond that way because you chose to pick certain parts of my whole post. And I really could not care less how you type it up as long as you respond in a thought out, respectful manner.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree about our young soon to be FAs. I know we can't spend with the Soxs or Yanks, pretty much nobody can. I would say that large 5 year deals to a potential perennial ace and all star 2nd baseman is money well spent. So you hand out a 5 year deal (don't agree with contracts longer then that) to said ace and 2nd baseman they will be what???? 33-35 when the contract expires. Those are not old ages for a ball player in this day and age.

It is fine to not think that having a player play most if not all his career and loosing fans is least of you worries, but think on this. Why are you an O's fan? I would be willing to bet most of us older fans would say along with the winning tradition, we bonded with our players. You knew year in year out Brooks was going to be there, Belanger (my fav. all time O), Cal, Eddie, Palmer etc.... Today's youth has no such connection with the team, and will change teams at the drop of a hat now days. The future O's fans need the few really good players we have to connect with. If they don't and we keep loosing the stadium will eventually be empty and then the team may be moved. I am not supporting keeping guys who can't play, but when we have a young guys that can become icons, you have to think long and hard and then think some more on moving them.

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I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them... Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The Bullpen. And while they likely overpaid for a guy or 2, the guys they got were considered reasonable additions to attack the greatest weakness on this team. So for me, the plan was good-decent. The execution was good-decent, the result was horrible...

I could never support a plan where the objective was "to build a team that could reach .500." The Oriole's FO has been so worried about fielding a respectable team "next year" that they have killed any possibility of fielding a competitive team three of four years down the road! Adding a couple of veteran arms to the bullpen and a couple of mediocre veteran bats to the lineup last winter was not a "good-decent" plan. It was a plan that pushed back any chance for competitivenes another year.

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What financial constraints? They had a $90M+ payroll. That was in the top 1/3 of the league. The O's had a higher payroll than the Cardinals or the Phillies or the Braves.
Financial restrictions? The payroll is $90+ million.

The primary increase in payroll from last year to this year was the bullpen. Had the bullpen played to their capabilities, along with Mora, Huff and Payton, playing remotely close to their September averages in April-August, how different life would be. My point is that that trying to say the Middle Ground plan is a horrible plan because the past 10 years is an example of it is not a valid comment IMO... The past 9 years are examples of poorly executed plans.. I don't include 2007 as I think the FO did a good job with the additions they made in general. They fact those players didn't produce to their career numbers isn't the fault of the FO.

And to be fair... lol isn't the payroll closer to $86mil after $$$ from the Yankees for Wright and $$$ from the Mets for Benson?

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People who fear the Orioles will lose 120 games if they go for a total rebuild and the fans will quit coming. YOU forget there is a certain joy in watching young kids trying hard to play. Even when they lose they can be celebrated as your loveable losers. However there is nothing fun about watching millionaires lose. I can't point out all the reasons but it is true none the less.

Like fans can tell when players are dogging it we can tell when they are trying. Really all you can ask for is effort.

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So you hand out a 5 year deal (don't agree with contracts longer then that) to said ace and 2nd baseman they will be what???? 33-35 when the contract expires. Those are not old ages for a ball player in this day and age.

Sure it is.

An average player who's able to play through his 35th birthday has declined from his peak offensive value to about 84% of that. His stolen bases will have declined to 44% of peak. His triples are at 32% of peak, hits down to 77%. For most players this means they're no longer major leaguers.

For example, in 2006 there were 19 major leaguers at age 27 who played 100 or more games. 13 of them had OPSes over .800. There were only seven major leaguers aged 35 who played 100 games, and only three of them had an OPS over .800.

Most major leaguers are out of baseball by their mid-30s, and that's barely changed in the last generation or two.

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I think they were trying to build a team that could reach .500 given the financial contraints that PA put on them.
I am sorry but this is bs. We had a 90 million dollar payroll...We have routinely been above 70 million over the past 10 years...It has NEVER BEEN about the AMOUNT of money spent...It has been on what you spend the money on.
And as it has been pointed out, keeping some core players and adding some FA's to go with them (Middle Ground?) isn't a bad plan just because they have executed it poorly.
It was a horrible plan...Look at the results and not only the results, look at our future...It isn't good especially when you put into context with the rest of the division and league. Let's not overlook this. We have to compete with teams that either have more money than us, a brighter future ore both. This is not a good thing.
I made this same case regarding the plan coming into this season. Their plan was to rebuild what everyone could see as the primary flaw on the team, The Bullpen
There was and is a lot more wrong with this team than the BP.
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