Seems like MacPhail "gets it"

[tywright]

Why does it have to be so black and white? Why can't they wait and see with Erik and BRob? We still have them for 2 more years, they are both fairly young and have several more productive years left.

The longer you wait then the less value you get back in return. The closer they are to becoming a FA they less value they have.

[davearm]

BB, what happens if Bedard doesn't sign an extension?

Then trading him at some point in the future becomes a more likely outcome.

I highly doubt trading Bedard this offseason is even on MacPhail's radar, or will ever get on his radar. Just look at his quotes about the importance of pitching. Dealing Bedard will be a last resort option, and with two years remaining before free agency, the situation is nowhere near last resort status.

[rolliefingers]

I think this is spot on.

Seeing a demonstrated ability to hit/pitch at the bigleague level is pretty important to GMs these days. Minor league stats are only worth so much.

For example I'd bet the big Teixeira trade doesn't happen if Jarrod Saltalamacchia hadn't gotten the ABs he got this year with the Braves.

MacPhail will want guys that have a track record in the bigs, even if it's a short one.

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?

[davearm]

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?

He was *only* a prospect until he got 141 ABs and showed that he could hit in the bigleagues.

[Delduck]

The longer you wait then the less value you get back in return. The closer they are to becoming a FA they less value they have.

And say we do some how start to turn things around and they have a change of heart and are willing to to sign extensions. Erik's value will not drop much if any between now and the trade deadline, with the exception of injury. Maybe I just see these guys still preforming well 5-6 years down the road and can be very valuable parts to our team now and then, and 2 less holes we have to fill. I have a ton of faith that AM can turn things around, and while I am not completely opposed to blowing it up, I think a controlled blow up maybe a better option.

[AgentOrange]

I think this is spot on.

Seeing a demonstrated ability to hit/pitch at the bigleague level is pretty important to GMs these days. Minor league stats are only worth so much.

For example I'd bet the big Teixeira trade doesn't happen if Jarrod Saltalamacchia hadn't gotten the ABs he got this year with the Braves.

MacPhail will want guys that have a track record in the bigs, even if it's a short one.

I like this approach. I would think this would lower the risk of the players we are getting, but it will also lower the amount of players back we would be getting.

Hopefully we make some low risk/high reward moves this offseason.

[Crazysilver03]

We need to talk with Minnesota about Garza, Baker, or Slowey.

I highly doubt the Twins trade any of them for anything we could offer.

[Hank Scorpio]

Then trading him at some point in the future becomes a more likely outcome.

I highly doubt trading Bedard this offseason is even on MacPhail's radar, or will ever get on his radar. Just look at his quotes about the importance of pitching. Dealing Bedard will be a last resort option, and with two years remaining before free agency, the situation is nowhere near last resort status.

This is most likely correct, but barring an extension, which ain't happenin'... you have to gauge how much Bedard's service time weighs into his trade value. Honestly, I don't think you lose all that much by not trading him this offseason. If you have a team in the middle of a pennant race, adding a guy like Bedard might be worth more to them then.

In terms of the big picture, I think the million dollar question is simple. How important is it to win while rebuilding, and really, is it POSSIBLE to win while rebuilding with your scouting and development team as currently constructed?

Eh........................................

There are lots of major questions to be asked & answered along the way.

[tywright]

I highly doubt the Twins trade any of them for anything we could offer.

Well one of them will be traded this offseason. We might as well inquire

[TommyD4207]

I'd rather get talent. Period.

Look at Milton Bradley - he's gotten a bad rap for years, but he puts up numbers. And he was a major sparkplug for the Pads, so it's not like he was screwing up the clubhouse. I think a lot of guys get the "headcase" label who don't really deserve it. I want talent, not choirboys.

Who's to say that Milton Bradley is/was not a clubhouse cancer this year?

Last I checked, the Oakland A's traded him. Billy Beane typically doesn't just release guys with good stats just for a tiny concern about their attitude. You could argue that the Orioles did with Luis Terrero and I'd say that you might be right. Possibly entirely correct.

If you said that the Orioles may value team chemistry a little bit more than necessary, I'd probably agree.

Fact remains, Milton Bradley could've been an entirely very good asset for the Oakland A's statistically.

Billy Beane's followers mostly say that team chemistry is negligible. Whether or not that is a fact, I'm not sure, it's entirely unquantifiable and how any certain human reacts to any other thing is pretty unpredictable unless you know their personality quite well.

Yes, he was hurt a bit before the A's cut him but the fact remains that he had a 292/373/446 line before he got DFA'd. That was right in line with the 818 OPS he had the year before. He finished up the year with a 306/402/545 line. That would be tops for the Orioles. Did Billy Beane really cut somebody that's a +940 OPS contributor for nothing?

Had the Orioles dropped Milton Bradley and then had him go on to post those sort of numbers this board would kill itself from all the hostility that would happen.

It would be the same thing that many on here (not all, but many) say that guys like JR House and Jon Knott should be here instead of others. I have already stated on a couple of occasions that I do not agree with that, but nonetheless, if the Orioles had Shannon Stewart, Mark Kotsay, Jeff Davanon, and Mike Piazza sitting there and they DFA'd Milton Bradley, I would stay away from this board for awhile.

Did Billy Beane believe that Milton Bradley's foul presence amongst the clubhouse was enough to outweigh the difference in production between himself and Kotsay, Stewart, and Davanon? Futhermore, if we were to have Mark Kotsay making 3/16 or Mike Piazza making $8.5M, the board would explode with anger that Milton Bradley was only making $4M and could put up much better production...statistically.

Is Milton Bradley that bad if his bad attitude can weigh down his production to the point that he's no more valuable than a guy who's OPS can is between 578 (Davanon) or at most 739 (Stewart)? I have no idea. Would I bet against it? Not necessarily. Billy Beane has a lot more data than I or probably anybody else on this board does. Furthermore, he has the inside scoop on anything and everything that happens in every situation. Point is, intangibles/team chemistry can be entirely overblown but it can also be incredibly overlooked by those that believe that it is negligible.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?

Seeing how the Orioles handle minor leaguers does that surprise you? The Orioles are just a more extreme case of a much wider trend.

There are advantages to be had if you're willing to put your butt on the line.

[Wingman]

Whether you believe we should make major changes or just incremental changes the argument that if we make major changes (trade away Mora, Tejada, Roberts and more) warn that it will be even worse next year to watch a team that will be even worse than this year's team isn't valid... Here's why...

Would you rather have been a fan of the O's this year or the Devil Rays??? Even though the Rays finished with a worse record this year I wish I was a fan of their team right now (at least over the O's). If you followed the Rays this year you got to see alot of young promising players play every day with the hope that with a strong farm system there was at least some hope for the club. What do the O's have??? They have 3 or 4 good players who are still on the upside of their careers and our good players are at their peak or past their prime and not too mention a bunch of over the hill guys (payton Gibbons Baez among others) that we're stuck with untradeable multiyear contracts. Yes, our farm system is improving but most of their best prospects are years away from contributing.

The point is this.. A 100 loss team of youngsters growing and learning with a bright future is more entertaining and easier to live with than the year we've just suffered through...

[mweb]

I think we're looking at young guys already on major league rosters. Not a player without any big league experience,.

If a young guy is already on a major league roster and producing well, it becomes much harder to get him, so I'd rather get more value out of guys who have yet to spend much or anytime in the bigs, but wil be ready to do so next year.

[mweb]

I'm sorry, but that's just absurd. Salty was not a good prospect until he got 141 ABs?

Yeah, I think it's dumb as well, I'll take a thousand plus minor league at bats plus scouting reports over 100-200 major league ab's any day when evaluating a guy. Sure, to have both is nice, but like I just said, if the guy does well in those major league ab's, it's less likely he's traded, and if he is, you have to give up more to get him.

[davearm]

Yeah, I think it's dumb as well, I'll take a thousand plus minor league at bats plus scouting reports over 100-200 major league ab's any day when evaluating a guy. Sure, to have both is nice, but like I just said, if the guy does well in those major league ab's, it's less likely he's traded, and if he is, you have to give up more to get him.

It may or may not be dumb, but the mindset is certainly out there, especially amongst the more conservative/cautious GMs, of which MacPhail is definitely one.

Some guys would rather take a nice level cut and hope for a solid single or double, than swing for the fences and risk striking out.

You guys are dealing with a singles/doubles hitter.