O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[JimPalmerJr]

There are 4 or 5 great college pitchers next year like Jungmann at UT or Sonny Gray, Gerritt Cole and Matt Pruke all likely top 10 picks next year.

Which goes back to the question of would you only offer slot to a high schooler this year, to get a 4th pick college player next year ?

[birdman57]

There are 4 or 5 great college pitchers next year like Jungmann at UT or Sonny Gray, Gerritt Cole and Matt Pruke all likely top 10 picks next year.

Hell with pitching. I want a potential superstar in here for the first time since the earth was flat. I want Rendon if we finish dead last:)

[H0smash]

Hell with pitching. I want a potential superstar in here for the first time since the earth was flat. I want Rendon if we finish dead last:)

The more and more I get depressed about our players this year, the more and more I want to just finish dead last in the Majors this year and get Rendon next year. He could be the "premium bat" that Trea desires. Honestly, though, none of Wieters, Markakis, Jones, Reimold, and Bell appear to be that nice #3 or 4 hitter on a really good lineup. I'm holding out hope for Wieters but we would still need another, and I don't see us trading for one without having to give up too much (which MacPhail probably won't do). Reimold has potential to be a good #5 or 6 hitter, same with Jones, Markakis is an ideal #2 hitter, and Bell could be very good in the #5 or 6 spot as well (which gives us three guys who profile very well for spots 5 and 6 in the lineup), so our 5, 6, and 7 spots could be very good in the future. The only problem is we do not have an ideal #3 or 4 hitter, maybe Wieters can be that guy or Markakis could, I doubt it though. Everything I've heard about Rendon is that he's a Longoria clone, if true, and say we drafted him next year how far would he be from the Majors? Pie could be very good great in the #8 spot and it's pretty easy to find a solid shortstop for the #9 spot in the lineup (hopefully more offensively capable than Izturis). We need Jones to get his act together, though, and Wieters to take a big step forward.

[DocJJ]

I don't see how any other team in MLB can overtake us this year. When you think about how bad we are, coupled with how many games we have remaining with NY, Bos, and Tampa Bay, I think it's a lock.

[Greg Pappas]

I don't see how any other team in MLB can overtake us this year. When you think about how bad we are, coupled with how many games we have remaining with NY, Bos, and Tampa Bay, I think it's a lock.

I hear ya... perhaps a friendly wager? If the O's get the #1 pick in next year's draft, I'll add a new avatar that reads "DocJJ is The Man!", and leave it up for three full months.

If they finish anywhere outside of the first pick... ? Well, your call.

BTW, I am half-kidding, and you absolutely don't need to respond to this. Again, your call.

[mcgraw238]

Just noticed Houston has crept ahead of us for the #1 overall.

[Juanvald]

How is Houston ahead of us? O's winning % .319, Houston .348. We are still in control!

[Greg Pappas]

The O's are still in position for the top overall pick. Houston is 2nd. Loooooong way to go however.

[H0smash]

The O's are still in position for the top overall pick. Houston is 2nd. Loooooong way to go however.

Yeah it's starting to look more and more like we won't get the top pick. We can only hope that Rendon's demands are too high and he falls to us somehow, a la Wieters. I still hope we get it, though, I think we could really use another impact bat.

[mcgraw238]

How is Houston ahead of us? O's winning % .319, Houston .348. We are still in control!

My bad, my eyes deceived me when I checked the standings.

[QBsILLEST1]

We are not going to get the #1 pick next year, I will put a wager on that all day, too bad Greg is under the same assumption as I am . Maybe if we had less talent, or we had been playing at the top of our game and still losing, then I could see it being possible that we get the #1 pick next year, but we have just too much talent and most players hbave been playing far below their expectations. Only Nick, Luke and Wiggy and playing well offensively. We are still waiting on Jones, Wieters, and Reimold to hit again and for BRob and Pie to be healthy and hitting again. We will also probably promote Bell at a point and time depending on Tejada(I guess).

The fact that we have 2 horses at the top of our rotation(Guthrie and Millwood) and then 3 guys behind them that at any game can throw a gem(Matusz, Bergy and Tillman/Arrieta) really makes it hard to believe we will continue to play this way. I honestly expect things to come together and push us out of atleast the top 5 picks, maybe more. Sure we face the AL East more than most, but don't forget about the Blue Jays, they play the same teams as us, and they certainly don't have more talent in their ML or MiL teams.....

And don't worry about the "big bat", it will come.

[allstar1579]

We are not going to get the #1 pick next year, I will put a wager on that all day, too bad Greg is under the same assumption as I am . Maybe if we had less talent, or we had been playing at the top of our game and still losing, then I could see it being possible that we get the #1 pick next year, but we have just too much talent and most players hbave been playing far below their expectations. Only Nick, Luke and Wiggy and playing well offensively. We are still waiting on Jones, Wieters, and Reimold to hit again and for BRob and Pie to be healthy and hitting again. We will also probably promote Bell at a point and time depending on Tejada(I guess).

The fact that we have 2 horses at the top of our rotation(Guthrie and Millwood) and then 3 guys behind them that at any game can throw a gem(Matusz, Bergy and Tillman/Arrieta) really makes it hard to believe we will continue to play this way. I honestly expect things to come together and push us out of atleast the top 5 picks, maybe more. Sure we face the AL East more than most, but don't forget about the Blue Jays, they play the same teams as us, and they certainly don't have more talent in their ML or MiL teams.....

And don't worry about the "big bat", it will come.

Don't forget to figure in the inevitable trades that are coming. Those two horses could easily be gone, Roberts could be battling injuries all year it seems, and the sophmore slump has really gotten a hold of Jonesie.

[H0smash]

We are not going to get the #1 pick next year, I will put a wager on that all day, too bad Greg is under the same assumption as I am . Maybe if we had less talent, or we had been playing at the top of our game and still losing, then I could see it being possible that we get the #1 pick next year, but we have just too much talent and most players hbave been playing far below their expectations. Only Nick, Luke and Wiggy and playing well offensively. We are still waiting on Jones, Wieters, and Reimold to hit again and for BRob and Pie to be healthy and hitting again. We will also probably promote Bell at a point and time depending on Tejada(I guess).

The fact that we have 2 horses at the top of our rotation(Guthrie and Millwood) and then 3 guys behind them that at any game can throw a gem(Matusz, Bergy and Tillman/Arrieta) really makes it hard to believe we will continue to play this way. I honestly expect things to come together and push us out of atleast the top 5 picks, maybe more. Sure we face the AL East more than most, but don't forget about the Blue Jays, they play the same teams as us, and they certainly don't have more talent in their ML or MiL teams.....

And don't worry about the "big bat", it will come.

I would say that we will most likely NOT get the #1 pick. But if a bunch more things go wrong/in our favor (depending on how you look at it) we could get that pick.

-The young pitchers continue to be inconsistent (highly likely)

-Pie, Reimold, and Roberts are unable to be effective/healthy again (I would say this is likely to happen with at least two of the three)

-We trade at least 3 of: Millwood, Tejada, Wigginton, Guthrie, Scott, Ohman, and Uehara at or before the deadline. (highly likely)

-Wieters and Jones continue to struggle the rest of the way (unlikely)

I could see us make a run for the #1 pick especially if we have anymore unexpected injuries. I think Wieters and Jones will bounce back at some point, we'll trade some of the veterans, and I don't think we'll see all three of Reimold, Pie and Roberts return to form this year. I think we're likely to get a top 5 or top 3 pick this year, and if we have another collapse similar to the past couple of years, we can certainly get the #1 overall pick. I think this team might not collapse, though, just a hunch.

[ShoelesJoe]

With all the doomsayers already discussing how we are looking at locking up the first spot in the 2011 Draft, I wanted to remind them that there are 12 teams within 5.5 games of our sad position in the standings. As bad as we've been, I don't believe we're the worst team in the game, nor expect a #1 pick.

If Anthony Rendon is indeed the top dog, he'll likely be barking up another tree.

And how many of those 12 teams will get their asses kicked by AL East teams every other night the rest of the year? After tonight our next dozen games are against the Yanks, BoSox, and Jays, and I'd be stunned if we didn't lose nine of them. In two weeks the Astros will be five games off the pace, and most everybody else in double digits. And correct me if I'm wrong, but from here (May 27) through July 29th every team we're playing currently has a winning record. You think the Astros or KC is spending the next two months playing nothing but winning teams? Not hardly.

I agree that we're not nearly the worst team in MLB in 2010, but the other contenders for that dubious distinction don't have anything like the gruesome schedule we have.

[mcgraw238]

And how many of those 12 teams will get their asses kicked by AL East teams every other night the rest of the year? After tonight our next dozen games are against the Yanks, BoSox, and Jays, and I'd be stunned if we didn't lose nine of them. In two weeks the Astros will be five games off the pace, and most everybody else in double digits. And correct me if I'm wrong, but from here (May 27) through July 29th every team we're playing currently has a winning record. You think the Astros or KC is spending the next two months playing nothing but winning teams? Not hardly.

I agree that we're not nearly the worst team in MLB in 2010, but the other contenders for that dubious distinction don't have anything like the gruesome schedule we have.

Based on this logic we should get the #1 pick every year.