Has JJ fallen in love with "value" picks?

[QBsILLEST1]

What do you guys think? I am beginning to think so, we have been passing on just too much top end talent for guys that end up becoming solid depth. In the past 3 drafts, it seems more and more that we are sacrificing upside for value(price). Its great that we have Machado in the system, but rather than a bunch of C+ draft prospects, why not 1 more A-?

I gave JJ the benefit of the doubt with the Hobgood pick(over Matzek) and even defended it, though it wouldn't be so bad if Hobgood was the same pitcher today that he was when drafted. We passed up on opportunities to really strengthen our system, especially in this draft, imagine what Machado AND AJ Cole could have meant for the system? Honestly, the only overslotters in this draft I really want signed will be Narron, Urban and Anderson.

I will say that I still think this draft was OK because we also drafted Bywater who no one is giving much attention to who IMO has the same type of upside/safety as Berry without the injury and the Anderson, Narron and Urban picks. There are some other decent upside overslotters sprinkled around like Robinson, Sawyer and Vader, and some very strong relief arms as well, but not so much upside as a whole......

[Sports Guy]

I really don't see him as the drafting guru so many on here think he is.

I have been very unimpressed with his drafts overall.

[ThisIsOurHouse]

He has found some good pitching prospects in late rounds. Guys like Berry, Wirsch, Coffey, Bundy, Beal, Drake and hopefully we can add Urban and Anderson to the list. I think he does his best work towards the later rounds like 6 and after where he can take more risk and over slot picks. I think this draft just did not have the talent level as the last one so Jordan could not do his best work.

I like the Hobgood pick, we knew when we drafted him he would be a work in progress, but none of the other pitchers we passed on are doing much better, infact they are putting up similar numbers at the same level (exception being Leake). In my opinion we have good pitching development and Hobgood is properly going to put up average numbers the rest of the year maybe mixed in with a couple great starts, but I expect vast improvement over the off season with strength and conditioning coaches and be ready next year to set the Carolina league on fire.

edit: I wouldn't consider him a draft guru, but he has done a B quality job with drafting the past couple of years, now if we want to be competitive we need A's.

[mcgraw238]

I really don't see him as the drafting guru so many on here think he is.

I have been very unimpressed with his drafts overall.

I tend to agree with this take. We could do worse but he's no draft guru.

[eb45]

He's not a super genius, but he knows what he's doing, does his homework, and doesn't do dumb things for no reason. I may disagree with him, but I almost always trust his judgment.

[Cavspider]

I really don't see him as the drafting guru so many on here think he is.

I have been very unimpressed with his drafts overall.

Would we be better off if some random guy in the warehouse took BA's list and just took the best available left for each pick? Does Jordan provide better insight? It would be interesting to see what a purely "consensus draft" would have done in prior years matched up against what Jordan actually did. I suspect you would do no worse. Of course this presupposes that there is enough money to lure the tough signs and pay the top names.

[mcgraw238]

Someone refresh my memory on Jordan's background. Didn't he come over from the Marlins organization?

[QBsILLEST1]

He has found some good pitching prospects in late rounds. Guys like Berry, Wirsch, Coffey, Bundy, Beal, Drake and hopefully we can add Urban and Anderson to the list. I think he does his best work towards the later rounds like 6 and after where he can take more risk and over slot picks. I think this draft just did not have the talent level as the last one so Jordan could not do his best work.

I like the Hobgood pick, we knew when we drafted him he would be a work in progress, but none of the other pitchers we passed on are doing much better, infact they are putting up similar numbers at the same level (exception being Leake). In my opinion we have good pitching development and Hobgood is properly going to put up average numbers the rest of the year maybe mixed in with a couple great starts, but I expect vast improvement over the off season with strength and conditioning coaches and be ready next year to set the Carolina league on fire.

edit: I wouldn't consider him a draft guru, but he has done a B quality job with drafting the past couple of years, now if we want to be competitive we need A's.

I disagree with the bolded, he had plenty to work with, he just didn't jump on the better talent. His philosophy has been quantity over quality. He knows just as well as we know, if not better that AJ Cole is a premium prospect. Overhyped? Maybe at one point, but regardless, his talent level is hard to argue with. Why pass on him for Mummey? Because he believe he can spend the same amount of money on more picks and get better value. I disagree, I don't see the need to draft guys who's best chance is being league average or a 4th OF/utility guy. We can get those guys in FA. Sure, maybe it is cost effective to do this, but last time I checked, these players aren't what makes your team a contender. Top end talent does.

[EL_Coyote]

Just out of curiosity, how do we know he didn't draft within his budget for the draft?

I agree some of the picks make you shake your head in regards to who was still available. However, I suspect it was an issue of budgetary restraints.

[QBsILLEST1]

Just out of curiosity, how do we know he didn't draft within his budget for the draft?

I agree some of the picks make you shake your head in regards to who was still available. However, I suspect it was an issue of budgetary restraints.

Not me, I don't see it as much on budet restraints because pre-draft he was talking about spending atleast as much this year as last. AND, he has been leaning more and more closer to the "value" picks the last couple of drafts.

I will say though, Urban is a very good sleeper. He touched 95 in a pre-draft workout for the O's. But, normally when we hear something like that, the pitcher comes back the next year throwing 5 MPH softer.....

[Stotle]

I disagree with the bolded, he had plenty to work with, he just didn't jump on the better talent. His philosophy has been quantity over quality. He knows just as well as we know, if not better that AJ Cole is a premium prospect. Overhyped? Maybe at one point, but regardless, his talent level is hard to argue with. Why pass on him for Mummey? Because he believe he can spend the same amount of money on more picks and get better value. I disagree, I don't see the need to draft guys who's best chance is being league average or a 4th OF/utility guy. We can get those guys in FA. Sure, maybe it is cost effective to do this, but last time I checked, these players aren't what makes your team a contender. Top end talent does.

Cole at $3MM isn't necessarily something that should be done. It's great to grab the kids that show-up high on BA's lists, but sometimes they just price themselves out. Now, obviously WAS didn't think so and thinks they can make a run, but all 30 teams had a total of 115 chances to pull the trigger and didn't. There's a reason.

Would I have drafted as Jordan did? No. Do I agree with his tendancy to give low six-figure bonuses to projectable 2nd and 3rd tier HSers and JuCos? No. But the battle cry of "best available no matter the cost" has swung a little too far. I had Austin Wilson as the second best outfield talent in the draft, but no way would I give him $4MM dollars given his current skillset. I had Cole around a mid-1st Rounder, but I wouldn't give him Top 5 money right now.

No different than when we complain about $3MM for Atkins. Throwing extra money around in the draft isn't okay just because it's discounted. I don't care that Wilson is listed as a 1st Rounder by BA. I think there are likely better ways to spend that money over multiple picks than just or Wilson.

There is absolutely a reason for players falling in the draft -- it isn't just that thirty teams are stingy. Again, my approach wouldn't be what I'm seeing from BAL, but the solution to the draft isn't simply spending $15MM on "consensus" top picks.

To be clear, I'm not trying to come down on you in particular. But everyone needs to dig a little deeper into draft philosophy if we're going to start REALLY critiquing the guys that do it for a living. A good rule of thumb is that if it seems like common sense, yet no one is doing it, there are probably a fair number of complexities involved. Every single team passed on Cole at least twice. The Nats thought the 4th round was the right round to take a gamble. It's no different than Jordan thinking the 5th was the right round for Arrieta, or the 9th was the right round for Berry. Every single organization knows who these kids are. These aren't secrets. But each organization is looking at the cost and the risk profile and (hopefully) an overarching strategy pertinent to that particular draft.

Suppose BAL went Machado, Cole, Wilson, Alvord. There is a real chance you end up with:

Machado ($6MM)

Cole ($3MM)

Wilson ($4MM)

Alvord ($1MM)

That's $14MM on four picks, three of which were considered 1st Rd talents by the "consensus", and there's a solid chance that none of them ever turn into more than a fringy ML player (and perhaps not even that). Admittedly, it's an extreme example. But there is a reason that each of Cole/Wilson/Alvord fell to where they did. And simply deciding to pony up the money needed to sign the talent isn't necessarily going to yield any better returns.

[QBsILLEST1]

Cole at $3MM isn't necessarily something that should be done. It's great to grab the kids that show-up high on BA's lists, but sometimes they just price themselves out. Now, obviously WAS didn't think so and thinks they can make a run, but all 30 teams had a total of 115 chances to pull the trigger and didn't. There's a reason.

Would I have drafted as Jordan did? No. Do I agree with his tendancy to give low six-figure bonuses to projectable 2nd and 3rd tier HSers and JuCos? No. But the battle cry of "best available no matter the cost" has swung a little too far. I had Austin Wilson as the second best outfield talent in the draft, but no way would I give him $4MM dollars given his current skillset. I had Cole around a mid-1st Rounder, but I wouldn't give him Top 5 money right now.

No different than when we complain about $3MM for Atkins. Throwing extra money around in the draft isn't okay just because it's discounted. I don't care that Wilson is listed as a 1st Rounder by BA. I think there are likely better ways to spend that money over multiple picks than just or Wilson.

There is absolutely a reason for players falling in the draft -- it isn't just that thirty teams are stingy. Again, my approach wouldn't be what I'm seeing from BAL, but the solution to the draft isn't simply spending $15MM on "consensus" top picks.

To be clear, I'm not trying to come down on you in particular. But everyone needs to dig a little deeper into draft philosophy if we're going to start REALLY critiquing the guys that do it for a living. A good rule of thumb is that if it seems like common sense, yet no one is doing it, there are probably a fair number of complexities involved. Every single team passed on Cole at least twice. The Nats thought the 4th round was the right round to take a gamble. It's no different than Jordan thinking the 5th was the right round for Arrieta, or the 9th was the right round for Berry. Every single organization knows who these kids are. These aren't secrets. But each organization is looking at the cost and the risk profile and (hopefully) an overarching strategy pertinent to that particular draft.

Suppose BAL went Machado, Cole, Wilson, Alvord. There is a real chance you end up with:

Machado ($6MM)

Cole ($3MM)

Wilson ($4MM)

Alvord ($1MM)

That's $14MM on four picks, three of which were considered 1st Rd talents by the "consensus", and there's a solid chance that none of them ever turn into more than a fringy ML player (and perhaps not even that). Admittedly, it's an extreme example. But there is a reason that each of Cole/Wilson/Alvord fell to where they did. And simply deciding to pony up the money needed to sign the talent isn't necessarily going to yield any better returns.

I was more or less using Cole as an example, I'm not upset JJ passed on Cole alone, I am mad that he passed on a bunch of talent. Cole doesn't deserve $3M, but I bet he still signs for around $2M which is still pricey, but probably worth it.

I dunno, I just wish we injected a little more talent.

[QBsILLEST1]

Okay Q, since you are such an expert on the draft we'll even give you 20/20 hindsigsht and let you do your own draft after the fact. Go ahead, show us you we should have picked in the first 10 rounds and we'll come back and check it out in a year or two. Everyone's got an opinion, but you know what? No matter how smart you are, your draft has got a pretty good chance of looking bad in a year or two. Maybe Mummey isn't the 4th OF that some people think. Maybe A.J. Cole isn't the #1 or #2 pitcher that some people think. Time is the best barometer. I've said it time and time again, Jordan is pretty good but he hasn't shown to be a genius. I just always think it's fun to sit back and listen to the guys who think they could draft better than him. It usually looks pretty funny in a year or two.

First off, I never said I am a draft expert, at all. But I don't have to be one to see that this draft isn't very exciting considering what our system is looking like right now. We needed a strong draft to improve our system, and we didn't accomplish this which will lead to our system not being strong. Atleast last year's draft offered us a chunk of guys who have the potential to breakout as the mature, and since most of the guys we took are pretty high ceiling guys, some have the chance to become premium prospects. This draft we didn't pick many "breakout candidates" as far as being a premium prospect is concerned.

Are you saying that you are happy with this last draft? Am I supposed to continue to believe that this draft was good? No, because I know it wasn't and like I said, I don't have to be an expert or have my own round 1-10 mock draft to say this.

[Stotle]

First off, I never said I am a draft expert, at all. But I don't have to be one to see that this draft isn't very exciting considering what our system is looking like right now. We needed a strong draft to improve our system, and we didn't accomplish this which will lead to our system not being strong. Atleast last year's draft offered us a chunk of guys who have the potential to breakout as the mature, and since most of the guys we took are pretty high ceiling guys, some have the chance to become premium prospects. This draft we didn't pick many "breakout candidates" as far as being a premium prospect is concerned.

Are you saying that you are happy with this last draft? Am I supposed to continue to believe that this draft was good? No, because I know it wasn't and like I said, I don't have to be an expert or have my own round 1-10 mock draft to say this.

I think a more accurate phrasing would be that by likely spreading-out the overslot money across a similar cross-section of the draft class as last year (if that ends-up being the case with regards to who he signs), Jordan may be sacrificing ceiling in exchange for casting a wider net. The trade-off (to my eyes) looks like more potential hits, but those hits profiling at ceiling closer to a solid regular or two, rather than game-changing talent.

As discussed above, the is merit to this thinking. Potential game-changing talent is many times priced out in comparison to risk (as discussed, talents like Cole/Wilson/Southall/Jaffe/etc. may still have too much "now" risk to warrant the price tag). But I think you are right on in that there doesn't appear to be that handful of players that have that upside -- even if it's only 5-6 players a draft, and you only sign 3-4 of them, it would be nice to see that type of profile included in the overall portfolio of the drafted class. People like to claim that "flashy picks" or "nationally popular picks" are often wrong/over-hyped/whatever. The reality is almost every pick faces an uphill battle to making an impact at the ML-level, so nay-saying any pick/player is usually fairly safe. There are plenty of pro/experienced evaluators willing to chat and share thoughts -- those are the people whose opinions matter. Seek 'em out and pick their brains when they give you the chance.

And of course you do not have to be an expert to have an opinion on the drafting. Just keep in mind that at the end of the day almost every organization is likely fairly happy with their haul. So, it's really impossible to give a strong and passionate grade on anything -- there is a wide range in evaluative info from org to org and just too much unknown in comparison to what the pros are aware of at the time they make their selections.

That said, most teams aren't making significant selections after Round 15-20 range, so you hardly need to know all 1500+ players to be qualified to express some general thoughts. Just my opinion -- another non-expert...

How's that for rambly?

[QBsILLEST1]

You don't think you are a draft expert, yet you know we didn't have a good draft. I think that's a conflict right there. You can say that Jordan didn't pick many flashy names but you don't know much about a lot of these guys. Time will tell if Jordan had a good draft this year. It's way to early to say anything except something like he didn't take the conventional or popular choices. I'm not happy or unhappy with this draft. In year's past there would be picks I've questioned (Hobgood, Blake Davis) but I certainly don't know enough to criticize the whole draft as being good or not good. Jordan is not a dummy. He gets paid to do this. He takes the heat if the picks don't pan out. I still think it's funny that someone who says he is not an expert has decided that Jordan has had a bad draft before any of these guys have played a professional game.

Listen, once again, you don't have to be an expert to do some research. I researc hed the picks we made, only a handful arfe going to be overslot. If a college had no interest in a player in HS, and we draft him in the 40th round, he is an organizational guy. And its not even that he didn't take flashy names, its that he didn't give the player development much to work with. Last year we took guys with UPSIDE. Cowan was projectable had 3 pitches that looked to be above average or better in the future, he was a GB pitcher. Wirsch had great secondaries, didn't throw hard yet but was as projectable as they come, Tolliver had a FB that last season touched 96 and secondary offerings that had projection. Henry had a plus curve and plus FB but was coming back from injury. Thats just a few and all in all, we didn't take a lot of these types of picks. We took a lot of college arms who project to be relievers. Bywater is a decent pick. Narron is supposed to be one of our primary overslotters and he has big big questions. I like Urban and Robinson and even Sawyer, but the quality is a notch below what we did last season.

RZ, no one here is an expert and it doesn't stop any one person from ever giving their opinions on the O's, how the team is run or anything. I edon't understand why I suddenly have to be qualified expert to give my opinions. I wasn't a qualified expert last year when I was saying how strong of a draft I thought we took, what changes now? That I don't like a lot of the picks and suddenly I can't say it?

In all honesty, I am not that much more thrilled with our 1st rounder than I was with Hobgood last year. Mainly because I really wanted Taillon, but we did take BPA, I just feel that BPA for pick 3 was quite a drop in talent from pick 2. I would have been happier with a Colon pick, paying him a lot less and getting more overslotters later. I would have been happy with Covey at slot and going overslot later. But it is what it is. We will see.