Has JJ fallen in love with "value" picks?

[Sports Guy]

You don't think you are a draft expert, yet you know we didn't have a good draft. I think that's a conflict right there. You can say that Jordan didn't pick many flashy names but you don't know much about a lot of these guys. Time will tell if Jordan had a good draft this year. It's way to early to say anything except something like he didn't take the conventional or popular choices. I'm not happy or unhappy with this draft. In year's past there would be picks I've questioned (Hobgood, Blake Davis) but I certainly don't know enough to criticize the whole draft as being good or not good. Jordan is not a dummy. He gets paid to do this. He takes the heat if the picks don't pan out. I still think it's funny that someone who says he is not an expert has decided that Jordan has had a bad draft before any of these guys have played a professional game.

So then no one should ever question anyone unless they are an expert in that field?

[Jammer7]

Listen, once again, you don't have to be an expert to do some research. I researc hed the picks we made, only a handful arfe going to be overslot. If a college had no interest in a player in HS, and we draft him in the 40th round, he is an organizational guy. And its not even that he didn't take flashy names, its that he didn't give the player development much to work with. Last year we took guys with UPSIDE. Cowan was projectable had 3 pitches that looked to be above average or better in the future, he was a GB pitcher. Wirsch had great secondaries, didn't throw hard yet but was as projectable as they come, Tolliver had a FB that last season touched 96 and secondary offerings that had projection. Henry had a plus curve and plus FB but was coming back from injury. Thats just a few and all in all, we didn't take a lot of these types of picks. We took a lot of college arms who project to be relievers. Bywater is a decent pick. Narron is supposed to be one of our primary overslotters and he has big big questions. I like Urban and Robinson and even Sawyer, but the quality is a notch below what we did last season.

RZ, no one here is an expert and it doesn't stop any one person from ever giving their opinions on the O's, how the team is run or anything. I edon't understand why I suddenly have to be qualified expert to give my opinions. I wasn't a qualified expert last year when I was saying how strong of a draft I thought we took, what changes now? That I don't like a lot of the picks and suddenly I can't say it?

In all honesty, I am not that much more thrilled with our 1st rounder than I was with Hobgood last year. Mainly because I really wanted Taillon, but we did take BPA, I just feel that BPA for pick 3 was quite a drop in talent from pick 2. I would have been happier with a Colon pick, paying him a lot less and getting more overslotters later. I would have been happy with Covey at slot and going overslot later. But it is what it is. We will see.

Personally, I think you have a very strong opinion on kids that you likely have never seen play. Video and the publication write-ups tell a small part of the story. A draft has to play out for atleast three-five years before you can generally judge it. I am not questioning your knowledge of the game, but I think it raises my eyebrows when you completely rag a draft that is just beginning to sign.

We are all big fans, that is why we're here. None of us are ML Scouts, that I know of, but Stotle and All-Star are in the business, so I yield to them when it comes to scouting/draft discussions. But, they don't base much of what they write on what BA or PG says. They actaully go out and watch these kids in person. Do they see every kid, no. And to get a good grip on a kid, you have to see them several times.

Scouts have different opinions on some kids, depends on what they like, how many times they see him, or when they see him, against what competition, how long they've seen him, does the kid project, what are his intangibles, what are his demands, etc... But they offer professional educated opinions of what they see. Do they tell everything to BA, absololutely not. Do not be fooled into thinking BA or PG or Sickels or whatever publication is the all-knowing authority. For instance, who was saying four years ago that Stephen Strasburg was going to be the best young pitcher in baseball in 2010? I'm sure that some scouts thought he had it in him, but his work ethic was lacking and he needed to go to school or sign for less than her wanted at that time.

It's easy for us to sit back and read BA or whatever your pleasure and say we should pick every kid that slides due to signability or injuries. Like Stotle wrote, there is a budget, and you do what you can to add talent you like in your system. A lot of times the hype on a kid is just that, and that is why no one else picked them either. For every Lars Anderson and Nick Adenhart, there are 40 more hyped kids who fall due to signability reasons and never sniff that status again. Great talent is fairly easy to see once or twice, but does the kid have the determination and fortitude to make it to Baltimore? Is he prone to injuries? What is his work ethic? Does he like his beer a bit too much? If a kid lights up Rookie ball, Low A or even High A, great. How many studs in the lower leagues end up never making it? A lot. The question is who can get to Baltimore and help this team. Tools only get you so far.

I think it is fair to question JJ for his earlier drafts. I have always supported JJ on this board, but I have to say there are some chinks in his armor. The Rowell pick is an absolute stinker, Snyder has underachieved, and you can argue that they have not really brought much in way of ML talent after the first round aside from Arrieta and Britton. (Maybe after this season we can add Miclat, Mahoney, Avery, Hoes, Berry, Moreau and Spoone to that list.) But, is it the drafts that lack, or is it the development staff? Is JJ a draft Guru? I don't know about that, but I'd definitely say he's nowhere near as bad as the results of most of the players he has drafted.

I still think JJ is a good scouting director and his drafts have been above average overall.

[mcgraw238]

Listen, you put a positve spin on Cowan, Wirsch, and Tolliver. For some reason, you don't put a positive spin on Klein and Anderson. Those guys aren't projected to be relievers by Jordan. Klein has three pitches and is athletic. Dixon has hit mid 90's. Why don't you use the same positive spin on those guys?

Mummey is a plus defender who hit 17 homers in 36 games. I know it's aluminum bats but that is still impressive. Why not put a positive spin on him. Maybe he's a plus defender, who can steal bases, and eventually hit 15-20 homers a year? I don't know. I just know that you can put a positive spin on just about any of the top ten picks, same as you did last year. As for guys like Ohman, Coffee, and Tim Berry, we still don't know a lot about some of these later picks. I know there are a couple of HS pitchers who could be overslot type picks. You're entitled to your opinion but with the draft being about as inexact science as there is, I find it hard how you can feel so strongly about your opinion. That's my opinion. Jordan will put a positive spin on every top ten pick he made. Time will either back him up or not. Once again, I give Jordan the benefit of the doubt because I feel he's a solid evaluator although probably not a draft guru.

I think its because he can call the high school guys "projectable." :laughlol: Sorry QB, I couldn't help myself.

[btdart20]

I think this draft just did not have the talent level as the last one so Jordan could not do his best work.

I disagree with the bolded, he had plenty to work with, he just didn't jump on the better talent. His philosophy has been quantity over quality.

First, I'm no draft expert. Just a fan. But everything I've read has suggested that this draft is Bryce Harper and everyone else. And that the talent level this year wasn't as good as last year.

But overall, I think the O's are shooting for quantity because of the various uncertainties involved in baseball drafting. They aren't putting all of their eggs in one basket. I'd like to more top shelf talent in the system, but I'd also like to see a lot of every day players come up from the minors.

[QBsILLEST1]

Listen, you put a positve spin on Cowan, Wirsch, and Tolliver. For some reason, you don't put a positive spin on Klein and Anderson. Those guys aren't projected to be relievers by Jordan. Klein has three pitches and is athletic. Dixon has hit mid 90's. Why don't you use the same positive spin on those guys?

Mummey is a plus defender who hit 17 homers in 36 games. I know it's aluminum bats but that is still impressive. Why not put a positive spin on him. Maybe he's a plus defender, who can steal bases, and eventually hit 15-20 homers a year? I don't know. I just know that you can put a positive spin on just about any of the top ten picks, same as you did last year. As for guys like Ohman, Coffee, and Tim Berry, we still don't know a lot about some of these later picks. I know there are a couple of HS pitchers who could be overslot type picks. You're entitled to your opinion but with the draft being about as inexact science as there is, I find it hard how you can feel so strongly about your opinion. That's my opinion. Jordan will put a positive spin on every top ten pick he made. Time will either back him up or not. Once again, I give Jordan the benefit of the doubt because I feel he's a solid evaluator although probably not a draft guru.

I put a positive spin on Cowan, Wirsch and Tolliver...Lets see, Cowan has injury problems, but other than that, he is a very solid SP prospect. Look at what Seiler had to say about him pre draft 09. Tolliver I liked because he had a big arm but had questions aout his durability and size. And guess what, he got hurt this year and is throwing mid 80's. But, he gave us something to work with. Wirsch will be a back ender probably if he doesn't poack on muscle thus adding velo, but still, he is young, had upside and provides a very strong foundation to build upon. I like those picks, they offer strong upside, but some potential risk. Compared to guys like Klein who looks like a reliever IMO. He is what, 21? And still has a little ways to go, and his upside isn't that high. Dixon has a big arm and a high ceiling, but has little chance in reaching that ceiling because he has inconsistent secondaries. IF, it were a younger guy, and had more time to improve, I'd like the pick, but thats not the case. No positive spin on Mummey because his power isn't goin to tranfer over to the ML, so he looks more like a 4th OF, especially with our current OF, but maybe the power tranfers over, maybe a lot of people are wrong, I dunno, but what I do know, I am not high on for a 3rd round pick. Who did we take in the 08 drat in the 3rd round? Hoes who just missed a top 100 list from BA THAT year. Last year? Townsend who may be an injury proned guy, but has great offensive potential. Klein has a mid rotation ceiling, but also looks a lot like a back ender.

I think its because he can call the high school guys "projectable." :laughlol: Sorry QB, I couldn't help myself.

HS guys are projectable, so they have more of a chance of turning a decent foundation into real talent. Do you know what it means to be projectable?

I am curious what does everyone like about this draft?

[QBsILLEST1]

First, I'm no draft expert. Just a fan. But everything I've read has suggested that this draft is Bryce Harper and everyone else. And that the talent level this year wasn't as good as last year.

But overall, I think the O's are shooting for quantity because of the various uncertainties involved in baseball drafting. They aren't putting all of their eggs in one basket. I'd like to more top shelf talent in the system, but I'd also like to see a lot of every day players come up from the minors.

If you would have read some more about Taillon, you would be able to see that he was also an elite talent. Some experts have said he was even better than Beckett was at the same time, but thats neither here nor there, because we didn't have a chance at him anyway.

[mcgraw238]

HS guys are projectable, so they have more of a chance of turning a decent foundation into real talent. Do you know what it means to be projectable?

I am curious what does everyone like about this draft?

I know what it means to be projectable I just choose not to use it for every tall skinny HS kid with mid 80s FB and developing secondary as if its a certainty that they will in fact develop. Plenty of these guys will never add that extra zip on the fastball that seems to be an embedded assumption every time the term is used. I was really just pulling your chain as much as anything so don't take it too personally. I appreciate your knowledge of some of these names taken on draft day.

As to this draft, I'm not sure how to react to this draft so I guess you could so I'm luke warm. You mentioned a few potential overslot arms later in the draft. In addition, having seen him pitch, I really like Klein and think he could be the Arrieta/Berry in this draft even though he was taken slightly earlier. I really think he can make a big league rotation. To me, this really wasn't a value pick. Stotle pointed out that Mummey has his supporters in the scouting community so I'm not selling him short just yet. I like what I hear about Narron and I don't mind, if nothing else, getting a guy into the system that exhibits some plate discipline. Considering the lack of a 2nd round pick, I think I may like what we did in rounds 1-5 of this draft over last year.

[Sports Guy]

Not at all. None of us are experts, yet we criticize MacPhail or whoever and state lots of opnions. Still, the draft is even more unknown. Let's face it. We know next to nothing about these players, ESPECIALLY the ones taken after the 1st round. If we took a bunch of college seniors in the first ten rounds, I could see the criticism, but we didn't. We took guys who Jordan felt were real prospects. You and Q may think you have more information on these guys than Jordan does, so good for you. I'm willing to go with the old "I trust Jordan's opinion" until have some evidence to suggest otherwise. I don't consider that being a homer. I consider that being wise enough to know that this is an area where there are a lot of things we don't know. Pretty tough to make a strong opinion on players that we've both never seen or seen any results insdie of professional baseball.

Stotle probably knows more about the draft than anyone on here. IIRC, his top 3 picks last year would have been 1. Wheeler 2. Mendonca 3. Dominguez. Wheeler is hurt and the other two guys are off to poor starts in A ball. He's as close to an expert that there is around here, which just goes to show how tough it is to judge players. So I question guys like you and Q and who know even less and yet have strong opinions about the 2010 draft AT THIS POINT.

I think it is perfectly reasonable to say that the industry as a whole thinks one thing and JJ thinks another(say Hobgood for example) and that if the industry feels one way and JJ feels another, that maybe he is wrong.

I respect the fact that he works hard and does his homework...To be honest, while I don't think he is some guru, I also think he is hamstrung by the organization.

[Stotle]

So then no one should ever question anyone unless they are an expert in that field?

Tony might as well shut down this draft section. There are a number of people that do plenty of research, go out and see players, etc. and still aren't allowed to question a Jordan pick without someone claiming that person thinks they can do Jordan's job better than he can (of course, to be fair, I think I did see a recent post by Greg where maybe he said just that ).

But for the most part, those accusations are out of line and get old. I'll absolutely say that there is often too much certainty in the tones of posts on this board, but the people calling out the critiquers often show just as much, if not more, faulty thinking and analysis w/r/t amateur players and projection.

Shrug. Things would probably be best if 1) people didn't act like it's possible to be an expert from the sidelines (it's ridiculous, and if you speak to certain of these "media members" you wouldn't give nearly as much credence to their opinions/pieces on players), and 2) people didn't take it upon themselves to personally defend Joe Jordan's honor (it's ridiculous and you likely have no clue what the "industry" thinks of Jordan or whether the critiques of his picks are fair). And, to be clear, I include myself in group 1. I'm very much learning all the time, and need to do a better job of reminding myself (and making clear in posts here) that even if I sound confident or strong minded, I'm just stating my opinion, which many organizational evaluators might disagree or agree with.

I have spoken to a fair number of pro evaluators, and there are certainly those who have a not-so-fond opinion of BAL's approach both to scouting and to the draft. At the same time, from the little I've heard, it usually isn't an issue with Jordan or a particular player that is selected, but more the overall approach and the classes as a whole. Take it for whatever you think it's worth...

[allstar1579]

Listen, you put a positve spin on Cowan, Wirsch, and Tolliver. For some reason, you don't put a positive spin on Klein and Anderson. Those guys aren't projected to be relievers by Jordan. Klein has three pitches and is athletic. Dixon has hit mid 90's. Why don't you use the same positive spin on those guys?

Mummey is a plus defender who hit 17 homers in 36 games. I know it's aluminum bats but that is still impressive. Why not put a positive spin on him. Maybe he's a plus defender, who can steal bases, and eventually hit 15-20 homers a year? I don't know. I just know that you can put a positive spin on just about any of the top ten picks, same as you did last year. As for guys like Ohman, Coffee, and Tim Berry, we still don't know a lot about some of these later picks. I know there are a couple of HS pitchers who could be overslot type picks. You're entitled to your opinion but with the draft being about as inexact science as there is, I find it hard how you can feel so strongly about your opinion. That's my opinion. Jordan will put a positive spin on every top ten pick he made. Time will either back him up or not. Once again, I give Jordan the benefit of the doubt because I feel he's a solid evaluator although probably not a draft guru.

I think you'll find a pretty good sized mix of people on either side of the fence if they are better as a starter or RP around the league. I know I personally like them both better as RP, but not so much that I wouldn't consider trying them as starters first. I just think Klein could be a fast moving end of the BP guy and that for me outweighs what I think he could be as a starter. I know another guy that has seen him a good bit that thinks he could be a decent starter with some work in the minors.

[QBsILLEST1]

I do have to say, I was probably more negative in my posts on this thread than I shoulda been(who woulda thought?). This draft was solid, but I am really counting on us signing some of these overslot kids later in the draft.