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What to make of Waring?!

markdublya

By markdublya
in Minors

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Striking out a lot against major league pitching is one thing, having one strikeout every 3 AB in AA is something else. Reynolds was roughly once every 4 PA in AA, once every 3 AB in the majors. So, as a guess, Waring might be striking out 40% of the time in the majors. He'd need to have a BABIP way over .400 to have any respectable batting average.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Striking out a lot against major league pitching is one thing, having one strikeout every 3 AB in AA is something else. Reynolds was roughly once every 4 PA in AA, once every 3 AB in the majors. So, as a guess, Waring might be striking out 40% of the time in the majors. He'd need to have a BABIP way over .400 to have any respectable batting average.

Not only that, but the examples cited here are the very tip of the iceberg. Most players who strike out in 1/4th of their PAs in AA don't go on to the career of Mark Reynolds or Rob Deer. Most of them are Matt Raleigh. Or Tom Dodd. Or Jon Hamilton. Or Bryon Gainey. Or Darren Blakely. Or Juan Thomas. Or Erick Almonte. Or Juan Diaz.

Just because someone has overcome a significant weakness doesn't make it likely someone else will, too. At the age of 28 Jamie Moyer's top BB-ref comp was Mike Kekich. There are 100 Mike Kekiches for every Jamie Moyer.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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One other thing -- Waring currently has a .338 BABIP in order to achieve his batting average of .249. How likely is that to continue at the major league level? Add another 8% K's to his current K rate (comparable to Reynolds' increase from AA to the majors), and even at a .338 BABIP, his average would drop to about .222.

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Crazysilver03 Hangout Grand Counsel

Crazysilver03

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I've dropped him from my milb.com bookmarked players list. Rowell was dropped too.

The good news is that I've added Adams, Henson, Mummey, Mahoney and Townsend.

No...it's not safe to say he is a non-prospect.

You are severely short-changing yourself if you are already writing off Waring.

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QBsILLEST1 All-Star

QBsILLEST1

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But his contact rate, strikeout rates, and age put him in the non-prospect category. Statistically, anyway...

I don't care what his K rate is, if he has plus power, he is some sort of a prospect. There is always the possibility slim or not that he overcomes his weakness and somehow possibly maintains the same K rate he has this year going forward. Is it a likely situation? No, but it is possible. He did improve his K rate last season, so we know he has the ability to improve that aspect. I recall Drungo saying that a prospects path to becoming a successfull ball player isn't always linear, so its way to early to write this guy off. Its not like Rowell who isn't the same prospect anymore, Waring still has a plus tool(raw power)....

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Arthur_Bryant All-Star

Arthur_Bryant

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I don't care what his K rate is, if he has plus power, he is some sort of a prospect. There is always the possibility slim or not that he overcomes his weakness and somehow possibly maintains the same K rate he has this year going forward. Is it a likely situation? No, but it is possible. He did improve his K rate last season, so we know he has the ability to improve that aspect. I recall Drungo saying that a prospects path to becoming a successfull ball player isn't always linear, so its way to early to write this guy off. Its not like Rowell who isn't the same prospect anymore, Waring still has a plus tool(raw power)....

But his K rate this season (1:3.12) won't be acceptable in MLB. That's 192 K over a full season of 600 PA. Furthermore, he'll be 25 next year, and he still hasn't yet tasted AAA. Pretty soon he'll be past an age where significant improvement has much chance of happening.

At age 24, he really needed that linear improvement this season. He needed to explode at Bowie. Well, maybe he has, finally. If he can stay hot enough to raise the OPS up around .880 for the season, then he'll have bought himself one more season of possibility. But the window is closing in a hurry.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I don't care what his K rate is, if he has plus power, he is some sort of a prospect. There is always the possibility slim or not that he overcomes his weakness and somehow possibly maintains the same K rate he has this year going forward. Is it a likely situation? No, but it is possible. He did improve his K rate last season, so we know he has the ability to improve that aspect. I recall Drungo saying that a prospects path to becoming a successfull ball player isn't always linear, so its way to early to write this guy off. Its not like Rowell who isn't the same prospect anymore, Waring still has a plus tool(raw power)....

I agree, he should not be written off. But he's not a year away from the majors, and he's 24 years old.

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QBsILLEST1 All-Star

QBsILLEST1

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But his K rate this season (1:3.12) won't be acceptable in MLB. That's 192 K over a full season of 600 PA. Furthermore, he'll be 25 next year, and he still hasn't yet tasted AAA. Pretty soon he'll be past an age where significant improvement has much chance of happening.

At age 24, he really needed that linear improvement this season. He needed to explode at Bowie. Well, maybe he has, finally. If he can stay hot enough to raise the OPS up around .880 for the season, then he'll have bought himself one more season of possibility. But the window is closing in a hurry.

..time to move on. The Minors have always had loads of guys with tremendous power and little else.

I guess you didn't read the last part of what AB just said, one more season of possibility which I'd agree with. Too soon to write him off........

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I guess you didn't read the last part of what AB just said, one more season of possibility which I'd agree with. Too soon to write him off........

No, you shouldn't completely write him off. But his window is closing fast. Most players that fit his profile don't end up with major league careers. Many don't get a single MLB at bat.

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