2010 drafted hitters

[Tony-OH]

We signed a lot of guys from the 2010 draft, but what about the quality?

So far, the hitters drafted in the 5th round and later have put up the following stats:

.221 AVG (426-1930)

163 BB (12.8 PA/BB)

516 K (4.1 PA/K)

Most of the success, if you want to call it that have come from 4th year seniors who are at levels below where they should be by age.

It's obviously very early but the lack of plate discipline and power from the players drafted this year have been putrid save for about one or two guys.

Mummey has done well and obviously there is high hopes for Machado, but when you look at the last few drafts you can understand why hitting prospect in the low minors are few and I mean few and far between.

One of the biggest things I look for is plate discipline at the lower levels. Guys who miss (strike out) every 3 or 4 at bats in the low minors rarely ever make it to the major leagues.

It's early, and for the guys drafted in 2010 it's very early, but there are way too many guys who are totally overmatched by professional pitching right now in the Orioles lower minor leagues.

[flashjordnk]

I wonder if this is a problem across the board.

My only reference point is another conversation about Christian Colon and how bad he's been in Wilmington so far. Even though he was pretty highly projectable in terms of what he was bringing to the table.

Is there any way to compare the numbers of all hitters drafted in the 5th round or later in total?

Also would there be any adjustment periods to wooden bats for most players who played earlier in the year with aluminum?

Either way...those numbers are pretty bad.

[MatthewW]

23 position players... Narron and Sawyer have virtually no PA's, while Machado hasn't suited up yet.

Of the 20 remaining, only Trent Mummey and Preston Hale have a 700+ OPS.

To take it one step further... only Riley Hornback, Michael Rooney, Adam Gaylord, Sammie Starr, Jeremy Shelby, Joe Velleggia, and Blair Dunlap have a .600 + OPS.

That means 11 of 20 have a sub .600 OPS.

And this magical group of 20 has a grand total of 11 HR's.

...Wow

[Malike]

I'd give them more than about 96 AB's before I start freaking out about how bad they are.

[Tony-OH]

I'd give them more than about 96 AB's before I start freaking out about how bad they are.

No one is freaking out. What we are doing is pointing out how poorly these guys have started out as a group. K-BB ratio and K/PA are two stats that normally show up very quickly and are very good indicators of future success or lack thereof.

It's not unusual for players to have an adjustment period for using a wood bat that will sap average and power, but it should not effect the ability to draw a walk or make contact.

There may be another adjustment period for playing everyday, but the in the end, some of these offensive numbers being put up are just mind-blowingly poor.

When you haven't produced a true everyday major league position player drafted outside of the first round since Cal Ripken, you are not going to get the benefit of the doubt.

At some point you have to say the Orioles scouts are not good at identifying true major league hitting prospects.

It's always give them time, but usually good hitters hit pretty well right off the bat. Sure there are plenty of examples where a future major leaguer struggled a season or two or maybe even more, but it would be nice to take a look at the Orioles minor league teams ans see a young guy hitting well with good plate discipline at an age appropriate for his level.

Hoes and Avery hit well in the GCL before holding their own as 19-year olds in the Sally League. Not surprisingly they are among the Orioles top position prospects right now.

In fact, those overall numbers I posted would look a lot worse if not for the senior sign college organizational fillers who have done ok at Aberdeen.

If you think it's just this year, go take a look at last year..and the year before..and...

This year a lot of our top pitchers have gotten hurt and the guys not named Hoes and Avery that have taken steps this year have holes either in their plate discipline or in their defensive game.

I have 4-5 guys I'm looking at as sure fire top ten guys and bunch of question marks...

[Sports Guy]

I'd give them more than about 96 AB's before I start freaking out about how bad they are.

How many good hitters have the Orioles drafted and developed into good MLers in the last 20 years?

Is there any reason for us to believe that they now what to focus on when looking for hitters?

So far, we have a bunch impatient, strike out prone hitters with no power...Sounds like what we usually have in our system.

[LookinUp]

When you haven't produced a true everyday major league position player drafted outside of the first round since Cal Ripken, you are not going to get the benefit of the doubt.

At some point you have to say the Orioles scouts are not good at identifying true major league hitting prospects.

While I agree wholeheartedly with your point, I might as well nitpick and mention Roberts, Markakis and Wieters (and hopefully Reimold soon). Not that it changes anything.

[Tony-OH]

While I agree wholeheartedly with your point, I might as well nitpick and mention Roberts, Markakis and Wieters (and hopefully Reimold soon). Not that it changes anything.

They were all 1st rounders (Roberts was a supplemental 1st rounder).

[LookinUp]

They were all 1st rounders (Roberts was a supplemental 1st rounder).

So what you're saying is that I should read what you write before I comment on it? I guess that makes sense. :laughlol:

[eb45]

I feel like Jordan's got a strategy now, that he's targeting guys who have fairly advanced plate approaches for their age who are also good athletes. Hoes is the prime example of this philosophy, but Webb, Hoppy, and others also fit the mold.

Of course, that still doesn't change the fact that the only everyday major league position player drafted and signed outside the first round by the Orioles since 1995 was Willie Harris. But at least there's a shift in drafting philosophies.

[Sports Guy]

What does Milwaukee and Texas do differently? they are also producing power hitters. Why can they do that and the O's can't?

[Moose Milligan]

What does Milwaukee and Texas do differently? they are also producing power hitters. Why can they do that and the O's can't?

This sounds dumb (shocking, coming from me, I know ) but it almost as if we don't draft those power types. Looking at Avery and Hoes, they certainly don't seem to be the type that project to produce much power at the big league level.

The reason I say this is that Texas has always been a power hitting team...they value power hitters in a way that we don't and have for quite sometime now. Going back to the days of Raffy, Juan Gonzalez, Pudge, etc...it's almost like an organizational philosophy that has carried through till present day. They've always been a power team.

I gotta think it starts at the players we target. I'm happy we got Machado and I guess there was no real slugger that could have challenged him for the #3 spot has he was the consensus pick...and while he has some nice power, he's certainly not a masher.

[PBR Street Gang]

What does Milwaukee and Texas do differently? they are also producing power hitters. Why can they do that and the O's can't?

Well Jordan needs to draft guys that have proventhey can hit for power instead of some subjective formula of projection.

Rich Poythrees immediately comes to mind. Jordan takes way too many 13th grade JUCO standouts that haven't produced.

A nice analogy for Jordan's JUCO hitters is a female hotness scale graded as someone who is a "real world 4, construction site 8"....or in Jordan's JUCO draftee cases - "real world 4 - Jordan's draft board 8".

[QBsILLEST1]

What hitters are we talking about? The only hitters taken in the top ten have either not played (Machado), barely played (Sawyer & Narron), or shown decent discipline (Mummey). Are we getting concerned over the poor plate discipline of Adam Gaylord?

This is how I feel. I really don't care about any of the organizational guys, only the above mentioned...