No Orioles in BA Sally League Top 20

[jcarm]

This is getting to be a dissapointing pattern. Looking over the stats-possibly Townsend did not qualify due to not enough plate appearances. I would think that Bundy and Hobgood would have at least been considered. I guess it is apparent that the strengh of our farm system is in the higher leagues and in players that did not qualify for the lower leagues due to not enough time spent in the league.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2010/2610727.html

[Tony-OH]

It's disappointing that Bundy did not make it.

[Sports Guy]

Besides Britton, Klein and Machado, do we have any prospect that is really any good?

I mean, we have some young guys with upside but they aren't making these top 20 lists.

So, how bad is our system right now?

[brotherlo38]

I wouldn't throw Klein into the "really good" category yet. I think Avery is the #3 prospect in our system and he still has a ways to go. After him I think there's a dropoff.

I think the system will be ranked in the bottom third of baseball by most pundits this offseason.

[Hallas]

Besides Britton, Klein and Machado, do we have any prospect that is really any good?

I mean, we have some young guys with upside but they aren't making these top 20 lists.

So, how bad is our system right now?

We've been graduating a lot of players to the majors the past couple years. It's kind of hard to maintain good evaluations on your farm when you do that. Matusz for example only affected our farm rankings for 1.5 years, and he's a borderline ROY candidate.

Because of this, any valuation of our system depends heavily on how highly you regard this year's draft, whose players are largely absent from the prospect lists because of service time.

[QBsILLEST1]

Ehh, I am not too surprised. I was kinda expecting not to see a huge showing from us on these lists. Now, if next year we are still looking the same, then I will begin to worry....We took some risks in the 09 draft, and so far, they haven't paid off....

[Stotle]

We've been graduating a lot of players to the majors the past couple years. It's kind of hard to maintain good evaluations on your farm when you do that. Matusz for example only affected our farm rankings for 1.5 years, and he's a borderline ROY candidate.

Because of this, any valuation of our system depends heavily on how highly you regard this year's draft, whose players are largely absent from the prospect lists because of service time.

It's true BAL has graduated players. But TAM graduated:

Crawford (2003), Baldelli (2003)

Gaudin (2004), Upton (2004), Cantu (2004)

Kazmir (2005), Gomes (2005)

Shields (2006), Young (2006), Zobrist (2006)

Dukes (2007), Sonnanstine (2007)

Longoria (2008)

Price (2009), Niemann (2009)

Brignac (2010), Davis (2010)

Likely: Hellickson (2011), McGee (2011), Jennings (2011)

TAM has maintained a top 5ish farm system for the past five years or so (don't remember BA's rankings with complete clarity) despite consistently graduating strong ML contributors, or at least highly thought of MiL talents. This is what BAL needs to compete against, in addition to worrying about the spending of BOS and NYA. To further dampen the mood, the Yankees had a very strong organizational year from top to bottom, and in particular with regards to international signees.

[psk3170]

I thought Bundy had the best chance but remember this is a 14 team league so their is alot of players that need to be evaluated. Markakis and Britton did not even sniff this list when they were eligible. Britton used to get beat out in every league by the Yankees Zack McAlister even though he outpitced him every year. He had to reach AA before they started to recognize him. Just keep that in mind. Anyone else think Matzek is similar to Jarrett Martin? A LH with electric stuff but no control.

[Frobby]

I am not at all surprised. We will do better at Frederick.

Going into this season, the guys we would have hoped to be on this list were Hobgood, Givens, Bundy and Beal. Givens got hurt, Hobgood was disappointing, and Bundy and Beal were solid but not outstanding. Better luck to them in 2011.

[Tony-OH]

Besides Britton, Klein and Machado, do we have any prospect that is really any good?

I mean, we have some young guys with upside but they aren't making these top 20 lists.

So, how bad is our system right now?

The system right now has a lot of intriguing guys who either do not have enough experience (Machado, Givens, Klein, Schrader) or were limited due to injuries (Wirsch, Coffey, Henry, Townsend).

Saying that, I've said all along that I have about seven or eight guys and after that it's a toss up because there are major question marks on everyone after that for one reason or another.

The first two are easy, the next 4 or 5 can be debated but they all have a nice upside. After that it's going to be some leaps in faith and upside.

Is the talent down? Well, a lot of guys who were in the 5-15 range either had injuries, took steps back or did not perform well. That's got to hurt any system. Snyder, Bell, Erbe, Joseph, Mickolio, and Waring were all exposed a bit in 2010. Guys like Hobgood, Beal, Coffey, and Wirsch did not make a big step forward whether by injury or lack of performance or jump in stuff.

The good news is that most of these guys still have the tools that got us originally excited so there's hope they can have a rebound.

This past season really did not have many bright spots in the minor league season and the lack of performance by overslot guys like Coffey and Ohlman, a #1 draft pick like Hobgood and close guys like Bell and Snyder last year were big disappointments.

[Tony-OH]

I am not at all surprised. We will do better at Frederick.

Going into this season, the guys we would have hoped to be on this list were Hobgood, Givens, Bundy and Beal. Givens got hurt, Hobgood was disappointing, and Bundy and Beal were solid but not outstanding. Better luck to them in 2011.

One other thing to remember is that Zach Britton didn't make a BA top 20 league prospect list until his Frederick season I believe. People laughed at me when I put him as a top 10 prospect after his Aberdeen season.

[Tony-OH]

It's true BAL has graduated players. But TAM graduated:

Crawford (2003), Baldelli (2003)

Gaudin (2004), Upton (2004), Cantu (2004)

Kazmir (2005), Gomes (2005)

Shields (2006), Young (2006), Zobrist (2006)

Dukes (2007), Sonnanstine (2007)

Longoria (2008)

Price (2009), Niemann (2009)

Brignac (2010), Davis (2010)

Likely: Hellickson (2011), McGee (2011), Jennings (2011)

TAM has maintained a top 5ish farm system for the past five years or so (don't remember BA's rankings with complete clarity) despite consistently graduating strong ML contributors, or at least highly thought of MiL talents. This is what BAL needs to compete against, in addition to worrying about the spending of BOS and NYA. To further dampen the mood, the Yankees had a very strong organizational year from top to bottom, and in particular with regards to international signees.

All very true and very depressing for an Orioles fan stand point. MacPhail gave Jordan the opportunity to spend above slot on guys, really since the Wieters-Arrieta draft. The problem has been that besides Arrieta, few of these over slot guys have lived up to their hype. It's very early, but the 2009 draftees (Hobgood, significant overslots-Coffey and Ohlman) have not performed even close to their close to $4 million combined price tag. Luckily Givens is looking pretty good offensively, but his defensive position is certainly a question mark.

[Sports Guy]

The system right now has a lot of intriguing guys who either do not have enough experience (Machado, Givens, Klein, Schrader) or were limited due to injuries (Wirsch, Coffey, Henry, Townsend).

Saying that, I've said all along that I have about seven or eight guys and after that it's a toss up because there are major question marks on everyone after that for one reason or another.

The first two are easy, the next 4 or 5 can be debated but they all have a nice upside. After that it's going to be some leaps in faith and upside.

Is the talent down? Well, a lot of guys who were in the 15-15 either had injuries, took steps back or did not perform well. That's got to hurt any system. Snyder, Bell, Erbe, Joseph, Mickolio, and Waring were all exposed a bit in 2010. Guys like Hobgood, Beal, Coffey, and Wirsch did not make a big step forward whether by injury or lack of performance or jump in stuff.

The good news is that most of these guys still have the tools that got us originally excited so there's hope they can have a rebound.

This past season really did not have many bright spots in the minor league season and the lack of performance by overslot guys like Coffey and Ohlman, a #1 draft pick like Hobgood and close guys like Bell and Snyder last year were big disappointments.

Yea, this had to be one of the worst overall years in the organization's recent history.

We have more promise now than say, 2003 or so BUT that promise turned into a lie this season.

[Frobby]

One other thing to remember is that Zach Britton didn't make a BA top 20 league prospect list until his Frederick season I believe. People laughed at me when I put him as a top 10 prospect after his Aberdeen season.

I had no problem with that one, though I remember being stunned the year before when you had him in the top 15 after a very mediocre showing at Bluefield. You definitely had a good early line on him.

I still have pretty high hopes that some of the young arms on last year's list will emerge as they mature. I've been following your lists long enough now to understand that progress of these young guys isn't always as linear as one would like, especially the high school pitchers.

[QBsILLEST1]

I thought Bundy had the best chance but remember this is a 14 team league so their is alot of players that need to be evaluated. Markakis and Britton did not even sniff this list when they were eligible. Britton used to get beat out in every league by the Yankees Zack McAlister even though he outpitced him every year. He had to reach AA before they started to recognize him. Just keep that in mind. Anyone else think Matzek is similar to Jarrett Martin? A LH with electric stuff but no control.

Nah, they are actually very different regardless of what stats say. See, Matzek is supposed to have good control/command and has good secondaries. His good K rate this year was mainly due to his quality of secondaries. Martin this year had a better FB w/ OK secondaries, but not plus secondaries. Matzek supposedly profiles similarly to Matusz while Martin profiles like more of a Britton-lite I guess....