Underrated and Overrated player on OH

[Frobby]

wOBA is better than nice. wOBA is mathematically perfect.

And actually, by the counting stat version of wOBA, wRC+, Scott is still ahead of everyone on the previous list except Gonzalez (he literally drops from 16th in baseball to 17th).

Scott takes a massive hit in WAR for DHing, as well as being a poor defensive LF/1B when he does play the field. This is actually a problem I have with WAR, but rather than get into that argument, I'm only saying Scott was an elite bat in 2010. Was he all-around one of the 20 best players in baseball? Probably not. Was he one of the 20 best hitters in baseball? Yes. Do people on this board (or baseball fans in general) generally consider him to have been among the 20 best hitters in baseball in 2010? Absolutely not. And because of that, he is underrated.

I still think you need to look at things beside wOBA and wRC+. I like both those stats a lot. But, you have to look at the fact that the O's frequently rest Scott against the toughest LHP's in the league (only 22% of his AB were against LHP; 30% or so would be normal), and the fact that he was a far better hitter with the bases empty (1.062 OPS) than with runners on base (.760; .682 with RISP).

[mweb]

Overrated: Markakis

Underrated: Tillman

Bergesen and Guthrie are underrated by some of the more stat oriented posters, but overrated by people who tend to not pay attention to advanced pitching stats.

[eb45]

You make some good points. To illustrate why I think Scott is underrated, I'll compare him to a fellow AL East LH-hitting DH: David Ortiz of the Red Sox.

(all numbers are for 2010 and are in Scott/Ortiz format)

wOBA: .387/.380

wOBA v. LHP: .334/.268

wOBA in low, medium, high leverage situations: .417, .353, .408/.349, .417, .344

And yet the projections for 2011 have Ortiz at or around his .380 wOBA while Scott is back at the .355 level. Sure, that's probably based mostly on track record, but I don't think enough people, here or otherwise, give Scott enough credit for how good his 2010 was.

[orayole]

Underrated: Bergy by far. He gets results, yet people seem to not even think about him.

Overrated: Jones, Reimold

I've never seen Pie overrated on this board at all. Everyone is down on him. Giving him 1 last chance to show something isn't overrating. But then it's funny that some of those same people think Reimold will be great. Reimold is Pie with power instead of speed.

Jones I put as overrated because everyone just assumes he's going to be great. Maybe he will, maybe he won't, but I don't see much doubt on these forums and I don't see anything from him that makes me want to remove that doubt.

[OriolesMagic83]

Underrated: Brian Roberts (the linchpin of the offense) check how the offense performs w/ and w/o Roberts, and half the threads seem to be how to trade Roberts for a couple of midrange prospects.

Overrated: Koji, other than throwing the ball over the plate, not much he does well.

[ShaneDawg85]

Underrated: Brian Roberts (the linchpin of the offense) check how the offense performs w/ and w/o Roberts, and half the threads seem to be how to trade Roberts for a couple of midrange prospects.

Overrated: Koji, other than throwing the ball over the plate, not much he does well.

Considering how big of an issue this has been for a lot of guys that have pitched for the Orioles over the last several seasons, this is a very good thing. He does a lot more than just throw the ball over the plate.

[Babypowder]

Underrated: Brian Roberts (the linchpin of the offense) check how the offense performs w/ and w/o Roberts, and half the threads seem to be how to trade Roberts for a couple of midrange prospects.

Overrated: Koji, other than throwing the ball over the plate, not much he does well.

:rofl:

Yeah, other than put up a real good strikeout rate as a reliever, not walk anyone and not allow many runs he doesn't do much of anything well.

[Crazysilver03]

Underrated: Brian Roberts (the linchpin of the offense) check how the offense performs w/ and w/o Roberts, and half the threads seem to be how to trade Roberts for a couple of midrange prospects.

Overrated: Koji, other than throwing the ball over the plate, not much he does well.

He is overrated because he actually does his job properly? I guess that is the new American norm.

[Slappy]

Orioles -

Overrated: Markakis. Actually pretty average as RF go.

Underrated: Guthrie. He was one of the top WAR starters in the league last year.

Teams -

Overrated: Twins. When's the last time they were in the WS?

Underrated: Blue Jays. They get no respect but always whip our ass.

GMs -

Overrated: Beane. Not smart to give away his secrets, now falling behind.

Underrated: Tough call, but I never see anyone talk about O'Dowd in Colorado. He's been really successful in a small, uninterested market.

[Moose Milligan]

Underrated: Brian Roberts (the linchpin of the offense) check how the offense performs w/ and w/o Roberts, and half the threads seem to be how to trade Roberts for a couple of midrange prospects.

Overrated: Koji, other than throwing the ball over the plate, not much he does well.

:laughlol: this is one of the funnier things I've read on here in awhile. Not sure what else you need from a pitcher who hardly walks anyone.

[Dipper9]

:laughlol: this is one of the funnier things I've read on here in awhile. Not sure what else you need from a pitcher who hardly walks anyone.

I did hear an intersting theory that because he walks so few, that batters will adjust this year and swing at his first pitch. Something to keep in the back of our heads as the season progresses...

[eb45]

According to Fangraphs, in 2010, batters swung at Koji's pitches 51.2% of the time, compared to a 45.6% league average. They also swung and missed more: 12.9% vs. 8.5%, and made less contact when swinging at pitches inside the zone: 79.8% vs. 88.1%.

Here's the most mind-blowing part: He doesn't actually throw that many strikes. The league average is 46.5%, and Koji is just slightly above that, at 48.1%.

So it's not just that he throws lots of strikes. He's a really, really good pitcher too.

[Eddie_Ripken]

I read through the first 3 pages of this thread.....saw Markakis was listed quite a bit as Overrated. Then come to the last page....still listed as overrated.

Really??? MLB Network rates him as #9 RF in the game right now, with two ahead of him that should not be there(Bautista for one).

OPS+ of 106, 121, 136, 108 and 119 in order for his career......with little to no protection for him in the line up.....and he's overrated?? GG caliber(I know I know overused term but it's true for him) defense.....typically top 2 in OF assists.

Sorry...I don't see how he's overrated. He's our best player. Period.

[ShaneDawg85]

I read through the first 3 pages of this thread.....saw Markakis was listed quite a bit as Overrated. Then come to the last page....still listed as overrated.

Really??? MLB Network rates him as #9 RF in the game right now, with two ahead of him that should not be there(Bautista for one).

OPS+ of 106, 121, 136, 108 and 119 in order for his career......with little to no protection for him in the line up.....and he's overrated?? GG caliber(I know I know overused term but it's true for him) defense.....typically top 2 in OF assists.

Sorry...I don't see how he's overrated. He's our best player. Period.

I think for some people the results haven't matched the expectations, be it their own or the general sentiments of the board. The board has spoken pretty highly of him over the years, and for some people it just hasn't matched that level of expectations. On that level, I can see how some could call him overrated. I don't, but that's just me.

[Moose Milligan]

I read through the first 3 pages of this thread.....saw Markakis was listed quite a bit as Overrated. Then come to the last page....still listed as overrated.

Really??? MLB Network rates him as #9 RF in the game right now, with two ahead of him that should not be there(Bautista for one).

OPS+ of 106, 121, 136, 108 and 119 in order for his career......with little to no protection for him in the line up.....and he's overrated?? GG caliber(I know I know overused term but it's true for him) defense.....typically top 2 in OF assists.

Sorry...I don't see how he's overrated. He's our best player. Period.

We should bump this thread in June when everyone's crying about how he should be our lone all-star representative.