Bowden: Orioles closing in on "humbling" deal for Guerrero

[Arthur_Bryant]

Arthur? Have you come to the dark side?:vader:

His talent in the past has been so amazing that it's hard not to be tantalized. I wouldn't be nearly so negative about him except for the evidence of my own eyes. He just looked to me like a guy in steep decline last July and August. And the apparent lack of interest this winter seems to bear it out.

But I'll admit, I started hoping against hope when it looked like the O's would sign him a few days ago. And obviously if it comes to pass, I'll be rooting as hard as anyone.

The great thing about OH is that our opinions have absolutely no effect on the real world. So I could be completely wrong without worrying about any consequences except to my own pride.

[Bradysburns]

Idon't know about you but I think I see a trend.

1.012 OPS age 28

.989

.959

.934

.950

.886

.794

.841 age 35

.

No doubt there's a trend. But as you can see, it's not a straight line. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit around .794 next year... or .850.

Don't forget however that the .794 was largely due to injury. And that was the first time he's hit under .300 since... wait for it... 1996!

If he's healthy and DH'ing only, I would expect good things this season.

[El Gordo]

No doubt there's a trend. But as you can see, it's not a straight line. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit around .794 next year... or .850.

Don't forget however that the .794 was largely due to injury. And that was the first time he's hit under .300 since... wait for it... 1996!

If he's healthy and DH'ing only, I would expect good things this season.

I would expect between .780 and .820. I think we could get the same from Reimold and Pie.

[Trinidad]

I would expect between .780 and .820. I think we could get the same from Reimold and Pie.

Wow, really? That would far exceed expectations IMO. On the 2010 O's, only Luke Scott would have exceeded that mark.

[El Gordo]

Wow, really? That would far exceed expectations IMO. On the 2010 O's, only Luke Scott would have exceeded that mark.

The 2010 O's didn't hit their career averages. Do you think their numbers were an accurate reflrection of their ability?

[Capn Vivi]

If we don't sign Vlad (and at this point I think we're probably 50/50), it will not be the disaster that some posters will no doubt make it out to be.

If he signs elsewhere for < $3m+incentives, I will admit my surprise we couldn't land him, though.

[Dipper9]

They discussed Vlad on MLB Hot Stove on the MLB Network last night. They shows the Ryan quote about the door not being shut, and they showed MacPhail's quote about the weekend rumor being false. They then discussed what we have been discussing...where the hell would Vlad play in Texas and what impact would signing him have on Michael Young, who is slated to be their DH. I'm not sure Vlad would sign with Texas just to be an occassional DH and bench player. Here he would have a much better chance at regular playing time. I don't think this is over yet.

That said, my preference is to get him, but if he gets away I won't be too overly upset.

[TheBee]

His talent in the past has been so amazing that it's hard not to be tantalized. I wouldn't be nearly so negative about him except for the evidence of my own eyes. He just looked to me like a guy in steep decline last July and August. And the apparent lack of interest this winter seems to bear it out.

But I'll admit, I started hoping against hope when it looked like the O's would sign him a few days ago. And obviously if it comes to pass, I'll be rooting as hard as anyone.

The great thing about OH is that our opinions have absolutely no effect on the real world. So I could be completely wrong without worrying about any consequences except to my own pride.

I know. There aren't many 35 year olds who run like Fred Sanford that I'd be wanting the Orioles to sign. I guess I've just been so amazed by Vlad the hitter, that I'd love to see him raking in my team's jersey for a season. I'm not sure how likely it is that he will be very productive again in 2011, but I do think that financially, at least, taking a one year flyer on him wouldn't have huge consequences for AM either.

[Going Underground]

If we don't sign Vlad (and at this point I think we're probably 50/50), it will not be the disaster that some posters will no doubt make it out to be.

If he signs elsewhere for < $3m+incentives, I will admit my surprise we couldn't land him, though.

I think Vlad knows what we are willing to spend for him. We probably have an offer out to him for a couple of weeks. I guess he is still waiting for a better offer. It might not come and he becomes an Oriole. I say 60/40 he might be an Oriole.

[Moose Milligan]

I think Vlad knows what we are willing to spend for him. We probably have an offer out to him for a couple of weeks. I guess he is still waiting for a better offer. It might not come and he becomes an Oriole. I say 60/40 he might be an Oriole.

I'd say its much less at this point. Seems like he's waiting around to see who else could be interested and now from what MLBN said last night, the Rangers could be back in the mix.

I just feel that if it was gonna happen, it'd be done by now...but we all know MacPhail isn't exactly quick on the draw all the time. I think there's still a slight chance.

[Dipper9]

I'd say its much less at this point. Seems like he's waiting around to see who else could be interested and now from what MLBN said last night, the Rangers could be back in the mix.

I just feel that if it was gonna happen, it'd be done by now...but we all know MacPhail isn't exactly quick on the draw all the time. I think there's still a slight chance.

It seems the decision is simple...

If he wants to make a little more money to play for a contender and get less playing time, then sign with Texas.

If he wants to play as much as possible, then sign with the Birds.

Tick Tock Vladdy...tick tock!

[clapdiddy]

I'd say its much less at this point. Seems like he's waiting around to see who else could be interested and now from what MLBN said last night, the Rangers could be back in the mix.

I just feel that if it was gonna happen, it'd be done by now...but we all know MacPhail isn't exactly quick on the draw all the time. I think there's still a slight chance.

I agree with this. Seems like someone in Vlad's camp got a little sick of the waiting, and got the word out that things were going on with us to get a rise out of the Rangers or Angels.

Now...MacPhail could be waiting to make a move because he needs to shed some salary (Luke) in a deal somewhere. But, at this point, I think Vlad will be a Ranger.

[ChaosLex]

I think Vlad knows what we are willing to spend for him. We probably have an offer out to him for a couple of weeks. I guess he is still waiting for a better offer. It might not come and he becomes an Oriole. I say 60/40 he might be an Oriole.

Uh oh! You were saying 75% the other day.

Would you call our offer "lowball?"

[Moose Milligan]

I agree with this. Seems like someone in Vlad's camp got a little sick of the waiting, and got the word out that things were going on with us to get a rise out of the Rangers or Angels.

Now...MacPhail could be waiting to make a move because he needs to shed some salary (Luke) in a deal somewhere. But, at this point, I think Vlad will be a Ranger.

Agreed, I think he ends up in Texas again.

I'd soil my boxers if it's announced that we've signed him during fanfest, though.

[Going Underground]

Uh oh! You were saying 75% the other day.

Would you call our offer "lowball?"

Our offer has been low since we started talking to Vlad. I think we are not sure if Vlad is playing the O's. We shall see and perhaps by Fanfest he will make a decision.