Mark Reynolds

[NewMarketSean]

All the moves we made this offseason were risks. Reynolds is performing to worst case scenario levels.

[Tony-OH]

I understand the frustrations with Mark Reynolds and trust me, I was right there with you last night as he left men on base inning after inning last night, but the fact remains is we need to give him at least 300 PAs before we can start to draw any real conclusions. I had a feeling he was going to struggle with the adjustments into a new league, and he certainly has done just that, but I want to see what he looks like in July before I write him off.

A bigger concern for me has been his defense. He has below average hands and may be one of the worse defensive third baseman on coming in on balls. I don't know if he just has below average eye hand of coordination or what, but the ball almost always bounces off his hand on those plays. Saying that, he's got a strong accurate arm that can make up for the times he just knocks the ball down due to his below average hands and once he fields it cleanly I'm confident he'll make the play.

Overall he's certainly been a part of the Orioles struggles this season, but it's too early to write him off as a bust in my opinion. Regardless, this was a good trade at the time by MacPhail since his upside and age made him very appealing for two bullpen arms, even if one of them (Hernandez) has a chance to be a pretty solid reliever for a long time.

[Sports Guy]

He has had a lot of bad luck...Lots of good signs in his peripheral stats.

One thing that I find interesting is that his GB% is way up and the FB% is way down but his LD% is up, so that probably has something to do with that.

Not even remotely concerned about him right now.

[Kevin Lomax]

I would like to applaud those of you being patient in this thread. This has to be one of the most obnoxious threads I've ever read on this board. How some of you responded calmly and eloquently without smashing your hand with a tack-hammer whilst typing, is beyond me.

Tony said it well and Sports Guy just followed up. That's all that needs to be said.

I won't act like I'm an expert. I have no way of knowing if the guy will turn it around or not. But hindsight is 20/20. There is no way, at the time of the trade, I would have turned it down.

Kneejerk reactions, one of the internet's most famous by-products, are running rampant here. A career has to be speak louder than a few months.

Rationality should be on everyones menu today. Please get more than your suggested daily value.

I for one, am pulling for Marky Mark to turn it around and start mashing taters. Strikeouts be damned. Start mashing taters.

[Going Underground]

Reynolds will need time to straighten out over the year. Josh Bell K's too much and does not walk. I think their is a reason the O's got Reynolds for a relief pitcher. How many guys who average over 30 homer's get traded for that? But he needs time because the O's have no other options. Jake Fox? Really. I had Reynolds as the biggest bust this year but the O's have no options.

[HokieOs]

We seriously are getting the absolute worst case from Reynolds right now... and frankly, while I'm still going to give Reynolds the benefit of the doubt... the warning signals have been there for a long while. Sure, he hit 32 HRs last year... but I still can't believe someone could strike out in almost 40% of their ABs (MR's numbers since 2008). He didn't even bat .200 last year. Now the power isn't even showing as well (he's on pace for about 15 HRs).

I'm very concerned.... but hopefully the issue corrects itself.

[DrungoHazewood]

He has had a lot of bad luck...Lots of good signs in his peripheral stats.

One thing that I find interesting is that his GB% is way up and the FB% is way down but his LD% is up, so that probably has something to do with that.

Not even remotely concerned about him right now.

I wouldn't say I'm not remotely concerned, I have some legitimate concerns that he'll never get fully back to where he was, and some concern that he's not going to be able to fix what's wrong with him. But like Tony said, I'm not anywhere near giving up. Unless he's just completely lost, like hitting .150 at the All Star break, I'm giving him most or all of the season to try to work things out. And even in the lost case I'd try some kind of radical retooling before I gave up.

[DrungoHazewood]

Sure, he hit 32 HRs last year... but I still can't believe someone could strike out in almost 40% of their ABs (MR's numbers since 2008).

There have been 32 players who struck out in at least 35% of their at bats and were at least league-average offensive performers (min 200 PAs). In 2001 Jim Thome struck out 185 times (35% of ABs) but had a 1.004 OPS and hit 49 homers.

[hose]

Ok. I'll repeat the often repeated. The Orioles had a .702 team OPS last year. The team had 133 home runs. Our top three home run hitters had 27, 22 and 19, respectively.

Reynolds in a down year had a .753 OPS, 32 HR and plays an interesting- I'd call it serviceable- third base. He's 27. We weren't getting Beltre. We have no 3b in the pipeline, unless Machado moves over there- and that's 2 years or more hence. I'd have to call this a decision that made perfect sense at the time. Watching Reynolds is painful now, but my gut feeling ( Yeah, I know, not admissible evidence), sees another Luke who looks completely lost and then suddenly goes on a sick tear. And if not, sometimes you go all in on a straight, and the other guy's got a flush. Right decisions don't always produce the best results.

Given his age, past, and production even close to expectations, the right decision is to play him until/if he gets it together. Even if it hurts. And it will. Not like most of our old favorites have been a ball to watch....

[HokieOs]

There have been 32 players who struck out in at least 35% of their at bats and were at least league-average offensive performers (min 200 PAs). In 2001 Jim Thome struck out 185 times (35% of ABs) but had a 1.004 OPS and hit 49 homers.

I know that Ks don't necessarily mean that a guy can't be a good hitter (heck, just look at Reynolds in 2008 and 2009). But it really isn't good when mixed with the other results we're getting out of him right now. When a guy strikes out 2 out of every 5 times he comes to the plate and doesn't at least balance that with a lot of power/solid hits (aka "contact to damage ratio as Buck called it), you have a huge hole in the lineup.

We knew when we signed him that the Ks were going to be there. That was just knowing what you're getting. But when batting less than .200 last year, the Ks... and now the lack of power... something is wrong. I wonder if in an effort to reduce his Ks, he's losing his ability to make contact consistently... and then in turn, when correcting that it has snowballed into him being unable to even make that contact anymore.

Why do I get the feeling that we dump him after 2012, only to have him go on a tear in 2013?

[El Gordo]

Look at it this way. Reynolds averages 1 HR per 7 K's. So he;s only 2 HR's off his normal 30 HR pace.:laughlol:

[Camden_yardbird]

Reynolds leads the team in doubles.

Reynolds is second on the team in walks.

Reynolds is second on the team in p/PA.

Reynolds is tied for third on the team in RBI.

Live with the strike outs. Realize the average is a flawed assessment of his batting ability. And wait for the HR as he learns a new league. Reynolds deserves a lot more credit and respect than many are giving him.

[DrungoHazewood]

Reynolds leads the team in doubles.

Reynolds is second on the team in walks.

Reynolds is second on the team in p/PA.

Reynolds is tied for third on the team in RBI.

Live with the strike outs. Realize the average is a flawed assessment of his batting ability. And wait for the HR as he learns a new league. Reynolds deserves a lot more credit and respect than many are giving him.

There are two things to consider here.

First, he's in a slump. Last year he was hurt and hit very poorly in September, and that seems to have carried over to some degree through the first six weeks of 2011. Let's not sugar coat it - despite your noting his place on the team in a few categories, he's OPS'ing .604. No matter how you look at it, that's terrible.

But probably more importantly, on September 1st last year he had an .821 OPS, and that was on the heels of '07 through '09 where he hit a combined .839. He's only been terribly slumping for 2, 2 1/2 months, following 3-4 years of solid to very good production.

Reynolds and the Orioles need to figure out what's going on, maybe it's injury hangover, maybe it's new league transition, maybe it's a slump, maybe a combination. But this isn't Garrett Atkins and many years of steady decline. It's a guy who was an above-average hitting MLB third baseman on September 1st, 2010.

[TGO]

Hey look at that, a Drungo post with great analysis that doesn't make comparisons to players from 1886. If Drungo's slump is ending maybe there's hope for Mark Reynolds.

(if you don't know what I'm talking about check out the Markakis thread)

[DrungoHazewood]

Hey look at that, a Drungo post with great analysis that doesn't make comparisons to players from 1886. If Drungo's slump is ending maybe there's hope for Mark Reynolds.

(if you don't know what I'm talking about check out the Markakis thread)

Don't worry, I just made a post in the Markakis thread that referenced 1897!