What is wrong with Nick?

[Nolanseye14]

Nick needs to:

1. Chops trees in the off season with Luke Scott

2. Get some B12 shots from Tejada

3. Stop looking at pictures of Brandon Fahey and thinking "I want that body."

[DrungoHazewood]

I am glad you said this, because with Nick's popularity on this board it's hard to be objective. I would love to eat these words, but I don't see a #2 or #3 hitter when it comes to production. W are quick to rip AJ, Weiters, and certainly Lee and Reynolds, but when you compare what Nick has put up, it's very disturbing. We tend to overvalue our own.

I think it's more that people are reactionary about our own. We see them every day, and assume the guys we don't see on other teams always just chug along every day, month and year around their career averages, with a nice buildup to their age 27 peaks.

Baseball don't work that way, folks. Everyone has up and down periods, and a RFer who plays every day with a 117 OPS+ and is a good character guy may not be a superstar, but he's a very valuable player.

Here's a list of players from 2006-2011 who are +/- 5 OPS+ points from Nick Markakis: Ichiro, Scott Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman, JD Drew, Nick Swisher, Bobby Abreu, Todd Helton, Aramis Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Quentin, Billy Butler, and Mike Stanton. I'm guessing most of us think their production over the past five years has looked pretty darn good. And Nick has the third-highest WAR total among players with a 112-122 OPS+ since his debut, because of his solid combination of defense, baserunning, offense, and durability.

Please, let's not let the fact that Nick is more unlikely to be inducted into Cooperstown today than a few years ago obscure the fact that he's a heck of a ballplayer.

Oh please don't tell me Nick's season is "unacceptable" after 46 games. He had an unlucky April, and so far a pretty solid May. I'm a little surprised that his doubles are so low, but I think I'll allow him to play the remaining 116 games before deciding if his season is "acceptable" or not.

Sometimes I can't believe this place.

Thank you.

[KLINE]

Anyone else ever notice that Nick may have gone to the Cal Ripken Jr. school for batting stances???

He seems to change his stance every couple of games when he's not doing well. The one he has now he has kept his hands in the same place but will open or close the stance from time to time....

[TiredofLosing20]

I will re-state what I have said in all the other "Whats wrong with Nick" threads. Nick Markakis is the least of my Oriole concerns.

[Scrat1]

He's better than Crawford!

[jamalshw]

He's better than Crawford!

I was thinking the same thing. People are saying the don't see a #2 or #3 place hitter in him anymore, but I say look at Crawford this year: .212 average, .249 OBP, and .293 SLG.

I know he's not been batting 2 or 3 in the Sox order since the first few games of the season, but he's spent his whole career in Tampa as an exceptional top of the order hitter. He'll turn it around just like Markais will (and already has).

[Jersey O's fan]

Oh please don't tell me Nick's season is "unacceptable" after 46 games. He had an unlucky April, and so far a pretty solid May. I'm a little surprised that his doubles are so low, but I think I'll allow him to play the remaining 116 games before deciding if his season is "acceptable" or not.

Sometimes I can't believe this place.

Well if we're going to accept that he's not 07',08' Nick then you're right. Take the unlucky out of it and he is identical to last year.

But is that what we're looking for, we've basically got a Placido Polanco type playing RF making 11M a season. And he doesn't even play good defense anymore. It's definetly a problem.

I do like that he's stealing a little more this year. Maybe the activity on the basepads will get him going.

[Frobby]

Well if we're going to accept that he's not 07'' date='08' Nick then you're right. Take the unlucky out of it and he is identical to last year.

But is that what we're looking for, we've basically got a Placido Polanco type playing RF making 11M a season. And he doesn't even play good defense anymore. It's definetly a problem.

I do like that he's stealing a little more this year. Maybe the activity on the basepads will get him going.[/quote']

It is more the tone and timing of some of the posts that bothers me. I'm very disappointed with what Nick has done in 2009, 2010 and this year, compared to where I thought he was heading after his first three seasons. He seems to have plateaued as a player, the HR power has never really developed, etc.

But so far as 2011 goes, I just think it's wrong to look at the 46 games played and dub Nick's performance "unacceptable." First of all, what does that even mean? How do we not accept it? Do we bench him? Give him a stern lecture about how he should be hitting better? Second of all, he hasn't hit too badly in May -- .322/.381/.414. Obviously I'd like his SLG to be higher than that, but I'll certainly take that BA and OBP any month of the year. To me, he is slowly making progress, and there is nothing to stop him from putting together a good season once 162 games have been played.

As to Nick's lack of doubles, he tends to be a little streaky in that regard. Last year he had three months in which he hit 10+ doubles. In the other three, he hit 3, 6 and 5. I have a lot of confidence that when Nick truly gets hot, the doubles will ring off his bat with regularity. Actually, the single he hit last night would have been a double most times, but Nick wisely recognized that Francoer has a rocket arm and he shouldn't test him.

Long and short, there is still plenty of season remaining and you don't toss around words like "unacceptable" because the guy had a bad month.

[hoosiers]

It is more the tone and timing of some of the posts that bothers me.

But so far as 2011 goes, I just think it's wrong to look at the 46 games played and dub Nick's performance "unacceptable."

You know I think your the best here, Frobby, (and frankly, IMO, it's not close) but you are also the guy who started a thread worrying about the performance of our minor leaguers less than 10 games into the season.

[Nolanseye14]

I don't think he is awful and I'm trying not to overreact. With the eye test (which is subjective), I see a lot more weak at bats from him and I see more weak at bats against marginal pitchers. From a statistical standpoint, the lack of power is very worrisome. Maybe he will go on a tear re: doubles, but he has 8 XBH in 185 at bats this year. That is just awful and the sample size is no longer small.

His IsoP the last four years:

2008 0.185

2009 0.160

2010 0.138

2011 0.086

If you guys truly aren't worried about his power numbers, then you're better men than me. I see Ichiro with a lower average (though an equivalent OBP), less speed, and not quite as good defensively. Not good enough for his contract going forward if it continues this way IMO.

I agree he doesn't pass the eye test. People keep saying he has hit into bad luck with balls put in play. This would be ok if most of his outs were line drives, but I'm seeing weak ground balls.

[Frobby]

You know I think your the best here, Frobby, (and frankly, IMO, it's not close) but you are also the guy who started a thread worrying about the performance of our minor leaguers less than 10 games into the season.

I remember starting a thread about how there wasn't much to look at in our minor league system, particularly because so many of the pitching prospects are injured, and how the cold start of the hitters hadn't done much to take my mind off the pitchers. Honestly, I still feel that way. Bump the thread (if I'm remembering the right one) and we can continue that conversation without derailing this one.

[Frobby]

I don't think he is awful and I'm trying not to overreact. With the eye test (which is subjective), I see a lot more weak at bats from him and I see more weak at bats against marginal pitchers. From a statistical standpoint, the lack of power is very worrisome. Maybe he will go on a tear re: doubles, but he has 8 XBH in 185 at bats this year. That is just awful and the sample size is no longer small.

His IsoP the last four years:

2008 0.185

2009 0.160

2010 0.138

2011 0.086

If you guys truly aren't worried about his power numbers, then you're better men than me. I see Ichiro with a lower average (though an equivalent OBP), less speed, and not quite as good defensively. Not good enough for his contract going forward if it continues this way IMO.

I am definitely concerned, and maybe even "worried" is a fair word. What I'm not, is panicked. I'm not at all saying you are, but the tone of the OP and several other posters is a bit over the top IMO. I agree with you that his current level of performance wouldn't warrant his contract. But, I just want to see what happens.

I agree he doesn't pass the eye test. People keep saying he has hit into bad luck with balls put in play. This would be ok if most of his outs were line drives, but I'm seeing weak ground balls.

Well, you haven't been looking. Per BB-ref, Nick's line drive percentage is 19%, which is the same as his career average. His GB/FB ratio is the lowest it has been, i.e., he is hitting fewer ground balls than usual.

As to Nick being "unlucky" -- in my opinion, that was true in April. He hasn't been unlucky at all in May.

What I'm not seeing, that you usually see a lot from Nick, are the balls lashed down the foul lines or in the gaps. I still believe we will see them, but we'll have to wait and see if that's correct.

[Stotle]

Not good enough for his contract going forward if it continues this way IMO.

That's the big issue. The hope was that we would be looking at 2012-2015 as a bargain so far as $/production is concerned. If he is a 3ish WAR player it's not the end of the world, but the point of buying out some FA years was to try and get some sort of deal. I don't think he's looking at more than $15 million per on the open market (note, I believe it's only $12 million next year).

[Jersey O's fan]

Markakis has a UZR/150 of -12.4.

I just find that shocking, even with the knowledge the number has been negative the last two years as well. I see a guy that regularly covers a lot of ground for a RF (particularly to the line), and consistently limits hitters from advancing by quickly getting to the ball and making accurate throws.

I get that eyes lie, I just have a hard time believing Markakis is not one of the best defensive RF's in the game.

I don't think he's one of the best defensive baseball players in the game, but that number is ridiculous.

I personnally think UZR is a joke, and at best it takes time to stabalize.

He has regressed in field to the point he is an average fielder. Nothing better. Nothing worse.

[DrungoHazewood]

As to Nick's lack of doubles, he tends to be a little streaky in that regard. Last year he had three months in which he hit 10+ doubles. In the other three, he hit 3, 6 and 5. I have a lot of confidence that when Nick truly gets hot, the doubles will ring off his bat with regularity. Actually, the single he hit last night would have been a double most times, but Nick wisely recognized that Francoer has a rocket arm and he shouldn't test him.

The other thing to think about is that Nick has set a standard that almost no one has ever matched. The all time leaders, ALL TIME LEADERS, in doubles through a player's first five seasons:

1) Pujols, 227

2) Markakis, 206

3) Ducky Medwick, 202

4) Chuck Klein, 202

5) Paul Waner, 202

If Nick hits, say, 30 doubles this year that's completely within the range you'd expect. Basically nobody has hit doubles from the start of their career like Nick, except Pujols. Almost every great doubles hitter in history throws in a 25, 30 double season and it's just normal. Klein had a run of five straight years of 34+ doubles, then had 27 and 14 in consecutive years. In Paul Waner's prime he was as high as 62 and as low as 29.

Dustin Pedroia, who averaged 41 doubles per 600 PAs before this year, has six right now. It happens, and it's not always a sign of the end of days.

I don't think he is awful and I'm trying not to overreact. With the eye test (which is subjective), I see a lot more weak at bats from him and I see more weak at bats against marginal pitchers. From a statistical standpoint, the lack of power is very worrisome. Maybe he will go on a tear re: doubles, but he has 8 XBH in 185 at bats this year. That is just awful and the sample size is no longer small.

His IsoP the last four years:

2008 0.185

2009 0.160

2010 0.138

2011 0.086

If you guys truly aren't worried about his power numbers, then you're better men than me. I see Ichiro with a lower average (though an equivalent OBP), less speed, and not quite as good defensively. Not good enough for his contract going forward if it continues this way IMO.

I'm concerned. I'd like to see him hit for more power. I'm curious as to what has happened with his approach and results. It's not quite as bad as it looks at first glance since the league SLG has fallen 28 points over the same period, but still. It would be interesting to talk to Nick, Crow, and Presley and see if he's make conscious adjustments where he's sacrificing power for average, plate coverage, etc.