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Stark: Lots of teams interested in Guthrie?

ChaosLex

By ChaosLex
in Orioles Talk

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ChaosLex Hangout Grand Counsel

ChaosLex

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Doesn't appear the O's are in any hurry to move him though.

It's fascinating how many clubs hunting for pitching mention the name of Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie. But scouts covering the Orioles remain skeptical that their president of baseball operations, Andy MacPhail, has any serious interest in trading Guthrie.

"I don't see him looking to move Guthrie," one of those scouts said. "If somebody blew him out of the water, he might do it. But I don't see that happening."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings110524

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EddieEddie AAA

EddieEddie

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We still have a young rotation and I think ideally we would like him to anchor for a few more seasons. But if AM gets another Adam Jones-type opportunity deal for a solid prospect, I would like to see him moved. So yeah, we would need to be blown away. I just wonder what we could get though.

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Say O! Major Leaguer

Say O!

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And that is exactly the position for MacPhail to have with Guthrie.

Guts has real value - he is still under team control, and his arbitration figures are relatively inexpensive for a 200 IP guy (his arb figures are held back by low win totals and low Ks). That low $ salary helps inflate his market demand, in that most teams can afford him and can afford to take on his remaining salary in a mid-season deal.

So, IMO, Guts should fetch a much larger trade package than one would associate with a guy of his ability. MacPhail knows this and will be patient, but hopefully open-minded if somebody is hunting for Guts.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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The Orioles should be able to get, at a very minimum, a Brett Lawrie type prospect..ie what Toronto got for Marcum.

HOWEVER, Marcum was dealt in the offseason and pitching normally goes for more at the deadline.

Guthrie has also been a healthier and more durable guy than Marcum AND has shown himself to be a little better for a longer period of time in the AL East.

So, I would expect the deal to start with a Brett Lawrie type prospect and a David Hernandez type BP arm. That's the least we should get, assuming Guthrie continues to pitch well and stays healthy.

That right there is enough for me to deal him and I think we could probably get more than that.

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Say O! Major Leaguer

Say O!

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That would be ideal but the Reds will need a starter and Alonso is apparently playign a respectable OF(according to Stotle), so they may not move him now...especially since he is tearing it up so far this year.

Let's not overrate Alonso here. A .886 OPS as a 24 year old in AAA is fairly good, tearing it up is a bit of an overstatement. Not trying to be argumentitive over diction, but drawing a distinction because I feel like we may potentially be overrating this guy on the OH board. Are we convinced that Alonso is really any different than Brandon Synder pre-Norfolk? From a statistical perspective, Synder's stats compare favorably (if not superior) to Alonso by level and age.

Do we feel Alonso can make a Logan Morrison like growth in power production or will his shine wear off just like Synder's? If Guthrie is our best trade asset, we cannot afford to miss when the trigger is pulled.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Let's not overrate Alonso here. A .886 OPS as a 24 year old in AAA is fairly good, tearing it up is a bit of an overstatement. Not trying to be argumentitive over diction, but drawing a distinction because I feel like we may potentially be overrating this guy on the OH board. Are we convinced that Alonso is really any different than Brandon Synder pre-Norfolk? From a statistical perspective, Synder's stats compare favorably (if not superior) to Alonso by level and age.

Do we feel Alonso can make a Logan Morrison like growth in power production or will his shine wear off just like Synder's? If Guthrie is our best trade asset, we cannot afford to miss when the trigger is pulled.

I mean, you realize Alonso has like 40 pounds on Snyder, right? I'm not saying that guarantees growth in power production, but I think it would be a stretch to compare the two of them outside of a rudimentary side-by-side stat comparison (which is dubious when you are talking minor league numbers). If you are trading for a prospect, you are always taking on risk. You just have to ask what sort of risk profile you are willing to tolerate (upside vs. probability).

For what it's worth, it's probably a moot point with regards to Alonso. Cincy can hold on to him and hide him in left field with Stubbs in center.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Let's not overrate Alonso here. A .886 OPS as a 24 year old in AAA is fairly good, tearing it up is a bit of an overstatement. Not trying to be argumentitive over diction, but drawing a distinction because I feel like we may potentially be overrating this guy on the OH board. Are we convinced that Alonso is really any different than Brandon Synder pre-Norfolk? From a statistical perspective, Synder's stats compare favorably (if not superior) to Alonso by level and age.

Do we feel Alonso can make a Logan Morrison like growth in power production or will his shine wear off just like Synder's? If Guthrie is our best trade asset, we cannot afford to miss when the trigger is pulled.

Alonso is also in a pitchers league.

Also, his stats compare very well to AGon.

Without looking, I am pretty sure Alonso is a better OBP guy than Snyder was, walked more and K'ed less...He also is a better power prospect and has always been regarded that way.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Alonso is also in a pitchers league.

Also, his stats compare very well to AGon.

Without looking, I am pretty sure Alonso is a better OBP guy than Snyder was, walked more and K'ed less...He also is a better power prospect and has always been regarded that way.

He is certainly a better strikezone command guy -- better SO/BB than Snyder and also more power potential because of his strength. His lack of HR has more to do with swing plane than anything else, and he has started to make some adjustments since being drafted.

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